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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#261

Post by flyinglizard »

pkaye wrote: post #215
avazhi wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try…

> America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. People don't want a 'world police' anymore.

“People” don’t want their regular neighborhood police either, but take it away and people start appreciating it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#262

Post by bayesian_horse »

pkaye wrote: post #215
avazhi wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try…

> America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. People don't want a 'world police' anymore.

The sanctions are extremely tough and not entirely painless for the US and other western countries.

Also the US has delivered weapons to Ukraine.

They don't want to engage in a war with Russia, and that decision I think is the right one for now. A couple years down the road, if the sanctions don't succeed in containing Putin's aggression, we might have a different discussion.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#263

Post by margalabargala »

pkaye wrote: post #206
adrr wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US, France and UK have guaranteed that no country will ever dismantle their nukes for a piece of paper. This will make the world much more dangerous with Iran pursing nukes which will be shortly followed by Saudi Arabia. North Korea will never disarm. Proliferation will continue and technology advancements will make it easier for countries to acquire nukes.

Russia is who broke this agreement yet you are blaming the others?

It takes two things for an agreement like this to become worthless.

The first is a violation of the agreement, which is what Russia is doing currently.

The second is the lack of enforcement of the agreement against the above violator. If the other signatories enforced the agreement, then it would signal that the agreement is worthwhile, and other countries would be willing to enter into it.

Yes, of course Russia is the aggressor here and was the first to break the agreement. But the moment when these agreements become worthless, is when violations are not enforced, not when violations occur.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#264

Post by brabel »

lijogdfljk wrote: post #185
nickpp wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? He never said that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oAOSTiumsg How can you ask for source but then confidently claim otherwise. Ugh. edit : https://old.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/t0di4z/t... is a crappy Reddit link, but also goes on to include the nuclear mention as well. How can you view this as anything but a nuclear warning?

Just post the transcript of the full speech, it was not hard to find it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-tran...

Here's the relevant part (interpret this as you will):

"I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard."

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#265

Post by rmk »

trhway wrote: post #241
rmk wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's correct. You don't put missiles in range of a nuclear superpower's population centers and expect them to ignore it. But I feel that the timing of this is more related to Putin's political situation at home.

>the timing of this is more related to Putin's political situation at home. yes, as i already wrote during the last year, Ukraine got Turkish drones and with them the window of opportunity to win the Donbass war (like Azerbaijan/Turkey did against Armenia/Russia). The fall of Donbass would have been a large failure for Putin which his regime would have hard time to survive. Without bringing aviation though Russian fo…

Yes, Russia has a finite window in which it can bring in its tanks and heavy artillery, which are its strengths, before the spring thaws mire them in the mud. It's not entirely clear what the endgame is here, though. They can not sustain an occupation, and they will suffer heavy casualties if they do a street-to-street urban war; they will face questions at home if heavy Russian casualties are incurred, which is entirely possible given the US and UK have armed the Ukrainians up the wazoo with antitank missiles; they can not sustain a 'fortress Russia' with $630 Billion in USD reserves indefinitely; and they certainly can not stop the long term turn towards NATO and away from Russian energy exports, which will get a jolt in the arm after this disastrous war.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#266

Post by mvc »

karpierz wrote: post #198
mvc wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we wait until they're doing this in Poland? I think I've seen this one before. Doesn't end well for anyone involved. Better to hit an enemy when they're not expecting it.

The logical conclusion of this is the "first strike" doctrine of MAD ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-emptive_nuclear_strike ). Every major power has had 50 years to prepare for it, and it won't work. You want to respond proportionally, and make it hurt. But you also want to leave room for more pain, to give incentive for the behaviour to stop. And you need to make sure that your adversary believes that you'll kee…

They have already encircled a sovereign nation with their army and are moving in. Our "proportionate" response so far has been to shut down a couple of banks.

I'm not talking about a nuclear strike. All out nuclear war is clearly in nobody's interest (what's the point in ruling over a nuclear wasteland). Putin is relying on the fact that we are all so scared about that scenario that we will be weak in our support of Ukraine (and Latvia, Lithuania, Poland....).

China talks a good game now but how long do you think China will tolerate Russia bombing their most valuable customers?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#267

Post by Ourgon »

hutzlibu wrote: post #212
adrr wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US, France and UK have guaranteed that no country will ever dismantle their nukes for a piece of paper. This will make the world much more dangerous with Iran pursing nukes which will be shortly followed by Saudi Arabia. North Korea will never disarm. Proliferation will continue and technology advancements will make it easier for countries to acquire nukes.

"The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents." It is a bit unfair to blame it on US, France and UK only, when russia signed the document, too - and was the actual party to violate it by attacking ukraine already in 2014. (russia's position is, that since…

It is not just "a bit unfair", it is part of the nonsensical "all bad things are the fault of 'the west'" attitude which has gained so much popularity in the last decades. May I suggest the time has come (or, rather, has been here a long time) to stop (self-) flagellating and to start looking at the things which that much maligned "west" actually does right, things which are - gasp - worth defending?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#268

Post by nickpp »

brabel wrote: post #264
lijogdfljk wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oAOSTiumsg How can you ask for source but then confidently claim otherwise. Ugh. edit : https://old.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/t0di4z/t... is a crappy Reddit link, but also goes on to include the nuclear mention as well. How can you view this as anything but a nuclear warning?

Just post the transcript of the full speech, it was not hard to find it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-tran... Here's the relevant part (interpret this as you will): "I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and ou…

Please highlight the word nuclear in that transcript.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#269

Post by MisterTea »

hutzlibu wrote: post #143
kblev wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's good that Iraq and Afghanistan was worth a war, just Ukraine not so much

It is a bit easier fighting caveman jihadist and third class dictators with outdated military, than a nuclear superpower.

> superpower.

Yup. Because when I think of superpower I think of an economy that is barely passing Italy's.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#270

Post by bayesian_horse »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #217
avazhi wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try…

I wonder how resolve would shift if Putin were to come down with a case of polonium poisoning, or other tricks from his own repertoire?

Some would blame it on the CIA. The more likely perpetrator would always be someone in Russia trying to replace Putin.

Assassinating or targeting political leaders is a war crime. The CIA might have done that - quite a while in the past, mind you - but never against an adversary like Russia. At the very least you would expect a few US politicians to drop dead if there ever were such an attempt.

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