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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#671

Post by tapland »

hajile wrote: post #660
explaingarlic wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The count of soldiers doesn't matter; you can only fit so many on a battle line anyway and a war in which you run through a full battle line of infantry is so costly that even that insane regime wouldn't go for it. The red army required millions of soldiers because it ran through them so quickly due to their battle doctrine. This conflict will be nothing like World War 2. The size of the economy doesn't so much matte…

That economy means we can pump out more ranged weapons than the Russians can. We could literally keep shooting missiles until they ran out of things to block them with and keep shooting until there's nothing left.

We?

Dollars are poor defense against nukes.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#672

Post by tablespoon »

reddog wrote: post #612

Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian. The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS. For historical perspective, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US economy was 7x larger than theirs. At the end of WW2…

> Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian.

This is the fact that matters.

> The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS.

That doesn't matter. Many countries may have larger economies than Russia, but none of them have been willing to translate that into anything that can counter Russia's actions.

IIRC, the US gives far more military aid to Israel than it has to Ukraine, and it's too late to change that. Germany sent Ukraine 5,000 hats for its defense.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#673

Post by sitkack »

jessaustin wrote: post #642
emteycz wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because these "predictions"/recommendations are taken as school textbook (literally, it's required reading!) by Russian military.

Nowhere does Dugin have a larger stature than in the fever dreams of western military aficionados.

This is one of the issues I see with books of prognostications, they aren't so much as predicting the future as advocating for a course of action. They are selling their own version of the future.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#674

Post by denton-scratch »

meijer wrote: post #469

I hope all Russians reading this are aware how serious the situation is. The world now looks at Russia similar to how it looked at Nazi Germany in 1939. You've got to get rid of Putin.

Won't help; Putin is just playing out conventional Russian geopolitical doctrine. His successor will conduct his affairs the same way.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#675

Post by leto_ii »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

The risk of a NATO military intervention is non-existent. Biden said it explicitly.

Wrt economic reprisals, Putin probably did the math and found it acceptable. They might be kicked out of SWIFT, they will probably get closer to China.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#676

Post by light_hue_1 »

tootie wrote: post #653
recon517 wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So many commentators did not live through post-USSR 90s to completely miss the mentality and culture which shapes Putin's decisions. First, you need to understand values of a person, then their goals, then their methods to achieve the goals. 90s in post-USSR countries were a relatively free environment (from state prosecution) and it naturally selected for individuals which wanted as much power as possible and were w…

I think the Sanctions/No Sanctions debate is mostly moot. North Korea has been in the status of pariah state for decades and hasn't bent an inch. Compare that to China for whom we gladly swept the Tiananman Massacre under the rug, respected their sovereignty, made them a top trading partner and they have also not bent an inch. And we have hosted thousands of Chinese grad students at our universities. They are also wa…

North Korea has definitely bent. Their nuclear program is moving slowly. Their cruise missile program is moving slowly. Without the sanctions they would have had missiles to carry out a global nuclear strike decades ago. South Korea launched satellites in the 90s!

China also bent. But in a way that is very different from what people expected. There was this idea that economic freedom must lead to political freedom. It was the cornerstone of political calculations for a century in the west. But it turns out China bent on the economic side without bending on the political side. This wasn't preordained, if hardliners in China had won their battle against reformers China would still be trapped. But by the time that it became clear that this was the greatest miscalculation of the last half century, it was too late. China became too entrenched economically in the global order for any sanctions to be possible.

But sanctions have worked. Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons because of sanctions.

What sanctions don't do is they don't lead to regime change. But they absolutely lead to massive behavioral changes.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#677

Post by Phileosopher »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

From what I heard recently, Russia has two benefits:

1. Tactical - chokepoints are a major element of military tactics, and I guess there's a spot that leaves Russia completely defenseless with wide-open spaces if it doesn't own Poland and Ukraine.

2. Wheat - apparently, Russia owns quite a bit of the market, and Ukraine would carry another minority.

With that in mind, I see this entire thing as a coercive and brutal M&A, but with people's lives being destroyed instead of just their long-term career plans.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#678

Post by tharne »

adventured wrote: post #645
explaingarlic wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The count of soldiers doesn't matter; you can only fit so many on a battle line anyway and a war in which you run through a full battle line of infantry is so costly that even that insane regime wouldn't go for it. The red army required millions of soldiers because it ran through them so quickly due to their battle doctrine. This conflict will be nothing like World War 2. The size of the economy doesn't so much matte…

It matters at least in the sense that Russia's modest forces are so hyper exposed right now. The US and NATO could trivially cripple Russia's army in the field. They're entirely unprepared for it and they're going to be operating far from their optimal protection (embedded in Russia where defenses are far greater). The question is, when would Putin throw the nuclear card on the table. I'm in favor of the US and NATO…

> I'm in favor of the US and NATO (or just the US by itself) immediately attacking Russia's forces inside of Ukraine and destroying the Belarus command structure

As an American, I'll support another foreign engagement when I see the sons and daughters of presidents and congressmen shipping off the the Ukraine. Until then, I can't support sending American boys and girls to die in yet another foreign war.

Any talk of U.S. involvement should cease until the American public sees AOC, Hunter Biden, and Donald Trump Jr. (or maybe Baron) in uniform and on the ground in the Ukraine.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#679

Post by tunnuz »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

China?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#680

Post by scottLobster »

yonisto wrote: post #542
osynavets wrote: post #115

Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality

I'm so sorry. But the truth is that you don't stand a chance. Russia will get what it wants (it got the support of China that will offset any sanctions the the West might impose) I really hope you will stay safe.

And? If bullying is unavoidable, the next best thing is to make the bully give a pound of flesh for the privilege.
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