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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#641

Post by the_lonely_road »

baybal2 wrote: post #608
recon517 wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So many commentators did not live through post-USSR 90s to completely miss the mentality and culture which shapes Putin's decisions. First, you need to understand values of a person, then their goals, then their methods to achieve the goals. 90s in post-USSR countries were a relatively free environment (from state prosecution) and it naturally selected for individuals which wanted as much power as possible and were w…

Quoted post unavailable.

Do you want NYC to be a glowing rubble? An American direct attack on Putin would all but guarantee that outcome and likely a few more cities with it. Remember they also have subs right off our coast and I am not interested in finding out if their sailors are willing to follow through with their strike.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#642

Post by jessaustin »

emteycz wrote: post #591
rozab wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same prediction is made in Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics . Many of his recommendations have come to pass. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...

That's because these "predictions"/recommendations are taken as school textbook (literally, it's required reading!) by Russian military.

Nowhere does Dugin have a larger stature than in the fever dreams of western military aficionados.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#643

Post by DFHippie »

phkahler wrote: post #639
lordnacho wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you seem to be saying is that we should be willing to fight, but it's not been long since our last involvement. How big is the Afghan economy in relation to the West?

>> What you seem to be saying is that we should be willing to fight... Who is this "we"? For all the condemnation and claims about sanctions, everyone saw this coming and did not a damn thing. If sanctions actually are imposed, Putin can just turn off the gas to Europe. If anyone wants to engage militarily (and Europeans rightly had enough of that) they have to worry about nuclear weapons. I see this as a big eye ope…

Ukraine is in neither the EU nor NATO. That was what this whole conflict ostensibly was about: Ukraine gaining allies and support outside Russia's control.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#645

Post by adventured »

explaingarlic wrote: post #629
reddog wrote: post #612

Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian. The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS. For historical perspective, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US economy was 7x larger than theirs. At the end of WW2…

The count of soldiers doesn't matter; you can only fit so many on a battle line anyway and a war in which you run through a full battle line of infantry is so costly that even that insane regime wouldn't go for it. The red army required millions of soldiers because it ran through them so quickly due to their battle doctrine. This conflict will be nothing like World War 2. The size of the economy doesn't so much matte…

It matters at least in the sense that Russia's modest forces are so hyper exposed right now.

The US and NATO could trivially cripple Russia's army in the field. They're entirely unprepared for it and they're going to be operating far from their optimal protection (embedded in Russia where defenses are far greater).

The question is, when would Putin throw the nuclear card on the table.

I'm in favor of the US and NATO (or just the US by itself) immediately attacking Russia's forces inside of Ukraine and destroying the Belarus command structure, including assassinating Lukashenko and pushing a revolution there by any means necessary. Russia is weak militarily outside of their borders and the US could trivially defeat them. It would take most of 2022 for Russia to regroup for a full force projection into Ukraine if they're under attack from the US while doing it, and I doubt they have the manufacturing capabilities right now to sustain (that would take time to enhance).

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#646

Post by programmarchy »

hotpotamus wrote: post #634
programmarchy wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the era of industrialization economic size was a proxy for the capability of a state to mobilize its industrial capacity for war. Does that still hold true?

To me, the real question is what's the ROI on intervening to defend Ukraine?

This is missing the point, grossly.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#647

Post by abriosi »

hotpotamus wrote: post #634
programmarchy wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the era of industrialization economic size was a proxy for the capability of a state to mobilize its industrial capacity for war. Does that still hold true?

To me, the real question is what's the ROI on intervening to defend Ukraine?

You have touched one very important point that seems to be worrying the west a lot, measuring their actions by ROI

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#648

Post by dmichulke »

uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Incentives are:

- Russia will want to make this war as short as possible. They have their objectives (occupy Donezk and Luhansk + some more, destroy the offensive power of the Ukranian army and destroy the infrastructure needed for reinforcements ) and then declare the thing a success.

- The US wants it to go on as long as possible, so they will indirectly intervene by financing and supporting any insurgents.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#650

Post by ocdtrekkie »

adventured wrote: post #645
explaingarlic wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The count of soldiers doesn't matter; you can only fit so many on a battle line anyway and a war in which you run through a full battle line of infantry is so costly that even that insane regime wouldn't go for it. The red army required millions of soldiers because it ran through them so quickly due to their battle doctrine. This conflict will be nothing like World War 2. The size of the economy doesn't so much matte…

It matters at least in the sense that Russia's modest forces are so hyper exposed right now. The US and NATO could trivially cripple Russia's army in the field. They're entirely unprepared for it and they're going to be operating far from their optimal protection (embedded in Russia where defenses are far greater). The question is, when would Putin throw the nuclear card on the table. I'm in favor of the US and NATO…

Basically the problem is any action the US takes might prompt nuclear war, and Putin is gambling the US won't pull that card. It's political suicide to start a war with a nuclear power, and Putin doesn't have to worry about the votes.
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