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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#471

Post by mort96 »

ginja wrote: post #6

I just woke up to this news and I'm wondering if it's possible for Apple and Google to brick all Russian phones? This would probably be more effective on their population at large than any form of sanctions.

Targeting the population at large only even has the potential to have an effect in a democracy (and even then it seems plausible it would only create a stronger national sense of an external enemy). I don't understand what you want to accomplish by hurting innocent russians. The strategy so far seems to be to target the economy and ogliarchs, which actually has an effect on decision makers.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#472

Post by mort96 »

gdy wrote: post #236
csee wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of Russia supports an invasion. A minority is opposed. Was a poll

That was a poll about protecting Donetsk and Luhansk, I believe.

"Protecting Donetsk and Luhansk" literally means sending troops into Ukrainian territory to fight against the Ukrainian military. That's called an invasion.

EDIT: though the wording might still be significant. If the question is worded "Should Russia support the sovereign, Russia-aligned republics of Donetsk and Luhansk", that might poll significantly differently from a question that's worded "Should Russia invade Ukraine" even though both mean the same thing. Just like how >50% of Americans answer "no" to the question of "Should schools in America teach Arabic Numerals" because they're misled by the question, not because they're opposed to teaching people about numbers.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#474

Post by majgr »

paxys wrote: post #170
dealforager wrote: post #8

I've worked at tech companies that despise helping the US military. Please understand that the world is complex and although all superpowers have done terrible things, helping the US is the only way our children will live in a peaceful world. This isn't about democrats or republicans, the future of humanity will be decided in the next decade.

Is what Russia is doing in Ukraine right now too different from the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan?

I wonder if this is bot or paid Russian troll..

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#475

Post by neilwilson »

dwheeler wrote: post #330
uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Good questions, hard to answer. A few quick thoughts. I will try to dispassionately focus on the facts of the military situation as I understand them. That's going to be hard to do, but I'll try. I'm sure there are experts who know much more than I do. > Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? There are many projections, though wars are notoriously hard to predic…

"They'll put in sanctions. They will probably hurt Russia significantly. I think for Putin this is more about honor, and thus any sanctions will probably not be enough by themselves to force Russia out."

Sanctions will have no effect on Russia. Think about it - what physical items does Russia need to obtain that it cannot produce itself or obtain from China.

What physical items does the West need from Russia - gas and oil because the 'net zero' belief in the West has stymied their ability to obtain energy domestically.

If you don't pay the gas bill then you get your gas cut off. If the EU stops transacting with Russia, then it can't pay its gas bill either. And the result will be the same.

The belief in the power of money in the West will be its downfall. Putin doesn't need the West's money. He has as many roubles as he wishes to deploy and the ability to impose whatever level of tax in roubles is required to ensure people sell their labour and output to him within Russia.

War is funded by manpower, energy resources and industrial production, not by US dollars.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#476

Post by neilwilson »

paxys wrote: post #227
nikolayasdf123 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nobody is helping ukraine with any military so far. nor NATO nor any other allies. it is sad, but whole ukraine can fall within days.

Nobody is helping ukraine with any military, period. There is zero appetite for yet another military conflict in any western country, especially not with a country armed with nukes and with a madman's hand on the trigger. The response will just be yet more sanctions. If Russia provokes a NATO member then it's time to invest in those doomsday bunkers.

Sanctions can do nothing to affect Russia. The belief in them is beyond stupid.

It's like washing your hands in the face of an airborne virus.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#477

Post by unnouinceput »

dandanua wrote: post #269
unnouinceput wrote: post #254

Ukraine is the new 80's Afghanistan. War by proxy between US and Russia. Welcome to Cold War 2.0

I'm in Ukraine and I'm not considering myself as a proxy. We just want to live in a free country, not under the rule of a despot.

Unfortunately is not your choice, same as was no choice for Korean, Vietnamese or Afghanistan people. These 2 big superpowers like to piss on each other using somebody's else land.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#478

Post by neilwilson »

uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Sanctions can have no meaningful effect on Russia.

Not selling somebody your tomatoes primarily affects your tomato growers who will go bust, not those buying the tomatoes - particularly if they have plenty of tomatoes internally, can easily produce them or can get them from those lovely tomato growers in China in return for oil and gas.

There's rather too much faith in the power of the mighty US dollar. Quite a few people are going to find out the hard way that electronic impulses on a computer don't mean as much in reality as gas and oil supplies.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#479

Post by neilwilson »

jpgvm wrote: post #405
uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

It won't crash the economy but combined with really high inflation and having already over-expended QE measures it could lead to a nasty enduring stagflation which is probably worse than a crash.

That can easily be resolved by putting up taxes to a sufficiently high level to drain excess spending. Putin has the power to do that.

It's all there in Keynes' how to pay for the way - except Putin isn't running a liberal democracy that may object to high taxes.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#480

Post by Siira »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #160
justshowpost wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> helping the US is the only way When people are convinced that there is only one way, then the propaganda worked.

Russia is a openly currupt oligarchy dictator state and China runs slave camps and genocides. It seems to pretty much just be helping the US or the EU at this point. Honestly I would say EU over us in a ideal world, probably.

The EU’s the weakest of the powerful. I don’t think that’s not related to its more … progressive ideals.
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