Can anyone recommend any books to understand this conflict?
Frontline Ukraine by Richard Sakwa.
Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
181–190 of 613 posts
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.
Next up is Finland. Also not a NATO member.
But also a country with a history of coming to terms with the USSR, and notably one that didn't receive a NATO membership invitation guarantee (working of Wikipedia). Ukraine and Georgia did, both also want to join NATO. Finland has no such plans (again, working of Wikipedia).
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.
I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)
An above comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30452129) seems to rebuke this: "Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. If Putin takes Ukraine, and redraws his borders, he's just adding 4 NATO members. Wouldn't make much sense."
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#184Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?
He's trying to protect the russian speaking communities in Luhansk and Donetsk. There would be no point to him occupying mkre than that.
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?
Ukraine is in the middle of two "powers" and the proper role would be one of buffer. They could even benefit from that. Unfortunately, the Russian and the USA have both tried to take that part of the board for them and the Ukrainian population is split on their loyalties. Russian, simply can't allow more of the board, specially one part so close, to be dominated by the opponent. Anyone that think this conflict in ter…
One country is attacked by neighborhooding country with history of expanding into neighborhooding countries.
> Russian, simply can't allow more of the board, specially one part so close, to be dominated by the opponent.
Russian in fact could allow that. Whether Ukraine joins Nato should be between Ukraine internal debate and Nato internal debate. That Ukraine has both opinions present does not excuse nor explain Russian war.
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#186I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.
From Putins interview he does explicitly say that he wouldn't be in this position if the NATO didn't push for Ukraine, as simple as that.
Until this morning, Putin was saying that he wasn't going to invade. Perhaps trusting Putin at his exact word is not the best idea?
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Suppose canada tried to join china and north korea in some kind of military pact. USA would not possibly tolerate that.
You are absolutely right. However, consider now that USA invades Canada as a result of this. This is infinity worse and always unacceptable. Nobody—not even American citizens—would tolerate that.
Given what we have seen American citizens tolerate in the past, I expect public opinion not only to support such an invasion, but for Americans to enthusiastically participate.
In fact, some redneck militia trying to invade Canada is a common trope in US entertainment (from South Park over to The West Wing, even a whole movie exists), implying that it would be pretty easy. It's played for laughs, but it adds to the desensitisation of the public opinion about such an endeavour. Consent is manufactured.
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
The difference between now and WW2 is that all of Europe west of Ukraine ( excluding Switzerland), and most of it north, are in a single military alliance, which has nuclear weapons ( and France also does, not under the NATO chain of command).
Sure. That military alliance was just recently kicked out out Afghanistan, in a very embarrassing way. That Alliance's most powerful member, the US, aren't as strong as they were in the past neither for various reasons. And Putin, it seems, wants to find out when that block is willing to go to war against a peer (or near-peer) aggressor. Because I wouldn't take it for granted that NATO would actually start a shooting…
You seems to see Russia as expanding, they perception, I think, it's exactly the opposite. Putin is not thinking in expanding is thinking in making an stand.
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was really surprised at how lightweight the first wave of sanction was. They sanctioned some Russian politicians who were proud of it and the invaded areas only.
There is no going around it: any sanctions which don't even inconvenience the West don't hurt Putin and are already calculated into his plans.
Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.
Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction
This keeps getting repeated but both parties having nuclear weapons means a nuclear exchange is possible. You just need one crazy party.
It's not a question of "possible". It's a question of "probable".
Me being old enough to buy lottery tickets means that me winning the lottery three times in a row is possible. The probability of that is very low.
There is nothing to suggest that the probability of a full-scale nuclear exchange is now higher than before. In fact, given that all major powers have already ruled out a military response, the probability might even be lower.
> You just need one crazy party.
No, you need an entire crazy command-and-control structure.