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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#431

Post by probably_wrong »

dealforager wrote: post #8

I've worked at tech companies that despise helping the US military. Please understand that the world is complex and although all superpowers have done terrible things, helping the US is the only way our children will live in a peaceful world. This isn't about democrats or republicans, the future of humanity will be decided in the next decade.

I resent the implication that the US military is the only reason the world is at peace, and I bet plenty of NGOs feel the same - if anything, the US military is the one that has been pushing for new conflicts. And while it's true that all superpowers have done terrible things, the difference with the US is that plenty of them have stopped doing terrible things since.

I was not born yet when Germany started WWII, but I was alive to see the US declare torture as a valid means of interrogation and bomb civilians with no repercusions. And my living relatives who suffered under a US-backed military coup may not be as quick to forgive either. Maybe your children will live in a peaceful world, but for many of us that's cold comfort.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#432

Post by raxxorrax »

QuikAccount wrote: post #157
uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Ukrainian military is not exactly weak but Russia severely out-mans and outguns them. It will likely turn into a guerilla war like the US faced in Afghanistan. > What will Western governments actually do? Nothing really. > Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? No. Boris Johnson in the UK is already being insulted for his nothing sanctions. I highly doubt the West will go a…

Russia also has separatists supporting them and they can move relatively freely withing the country.

The US did sanction Russia, but is actually more of a sanction against Germany. China might even like an invasion for different reasons, although they probably will call them out on it officially.

You are probably correct that western countries won't do much.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#433

Post by awb »

ImprovedSilence wrote: post #55

Hang on to your butts, they're gonna come for all of Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

> Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.

Finland gets the next worst treatment, simply saying it should be “absorbed”.

Interesting that it says military action is to be avoided and that Russia should use it’s natural resource dominance to extract concessions from other countries.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#434

Post by [deleted] »

dwheeler wrote: post #330
uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Good questions, hard to answer. A few quick thoughts. I will try to dispassionately focus on the facts of the military situation as I understand them. That's going to be hard to do, but I'll try. I'm sure there are experts who know much more than I do. > Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? There are many projections, though wars are notoriously hard to predic…

[deleted]

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#435

Post by raxxorrax »

ant6n wrote: post #421
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

A strategy to not be dependent on fossil fuels due to climate change and a strategy to not be dependent on fossil fuels from Russia align very well.

Since you cannot change infrastructure over night, gas was the much cleaner alternative to lignite. If Russia stops supplying Europe, they will look for other gas suppliers.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#436

Post by jillesvangurp »

uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

My projections so far have been wrong. I did not expect an actual invasion. I suspect, I'm not the only one.

But given that it did happen, I don't think the Russians will back down now. My guess is that they'll occupy Luhansk and Donetsk with minimal losses while severely reducing the Ukraine's ability to do anything about that. Judging from the events last night, the Ukranian air defenses were basically not very effective and they likely suffered a lot of damage to what little offensive capability they might have had.

The question is what the end game is. It's important to consider all the other countries that border Russia. Georgia for example. Or Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. All former Soviet territory with pro-Russian regimes and some domestic anti Russian sentiments. I'd say that this is a not so subtle hint to those countries to fall in line and do as their told. It would be a mistake to assume that this is just about the Ukraine.

As for the West's response; I think we're seeing it and it seems Putin is neither impressed nor surprised by it so far. I don't think there's much else the West can or will do. I think when the dust settles, the EU will end up re-establishing some level of trade with Russia eventually but the relation will be an uncomfortable one for some time to come. But the gas will keep on flowing, for now.

I do think that proposals for e.g. new natural gas power plants are effectively shelved as of now in the EU. Given what just happened, increasing the EUs dependence on Russia for gas even more than it already is seems not advisable. Once that realization sinks in, I think Russian gas imports will start decreasing pretty rapidly over the next decade as countries move ahead with plans to basically stop burning gas on a much more accelerated timeline than what countries were talking about at COP26 just a few months ago.

Economically, we were overdue for a stock market correction and I think we're in the middle of one now; at least judging from my investment portfolio this morning which is looking like most of last years gains have been wiped out as of this morning. A lot of people are going to have a rough year economically. Especially in Russia.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#437

Post by sillysaurusx »

connordoner wrote: post #395
sillysaurusx wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I apologize for posting this here, but I was hoping for a one-time exception.) I am trying to help my programmer friend escape Ukraine, along with their elderly family: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30451497 The problem is, I don’t know anything about Ukraine. I have money, and I can book an Airbnb in a neighboring country for them. But I suspect (apropos nothing) they’ll discover that there’s no way to leave…

Can you send a tweet out sharing this message, please? I'll gladly RT it.

Good idea. Thank you! https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#438

Post by hn_go_brrrrr »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #372
throwaway894345 wrote: post #290

I really hope the world comes down hard on Russia with sanctions and support for Ukraine, but I’m afraid that so much of Europe depends on Russian gas that they won’t risk getting cut off. Which begs the question: how did Europe allow itself to come to depend so heavily on Russian energy? And how quickly can Russia pivot to buy energy from elsewhere (for a reasonable price)?

Quoted post unavailable.

What is this referring to?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#439

Post by raxxorrax »

mrec wrote: post #110
wyager wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear proliferation, like it or not, has done more for global peace than US military/trade hegemony. Ukraine gave up all its nukes in the 90s which is why this is happening now.

Ukraine never had the codes to use those nukes. They didn't give up a functioning deterrent.

The most difficult part is probably the enrichment so a rearming these nukes could be manageable.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#440

Post by raxxorrax »

motohagiography wrote: post #214
nickpp wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The speech of a bully, of an aggressor. The only correct reply is a direct retaliatory attack on his offensive positions.

The reason Putin is invading is because he knows the U.S. is weak, its leadership is politically weak, and there's very little it will do, and even if it does, it doesn't have popular support. It's the effect of clear incentives. If the U.S. intervenes, a retaliatory cyber op from Russia against critical infrastructure would make america amish again. Then, wait until midterms when the president loses the house and se…

> If the U.S. intervenes, a retaliatory cyber op from Russia against critical infrastructure would make america amish again.

Cyber crimes with significant impact are still in the realm of fiction. Scare mongering about it does not help.

That said, one should not make stupid decision how to connect and control such infrastructure and you should prepare with working backups instead of another security product.

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