Earlier quoted context omitted.
When the thug has nuclear weapons, responses get a lot trickier.
I'd say in this case everyone has nuclear weapons i.e. thug and bystanders with abundant second strike capabilities and also a healthy desire to live. With that level of mutually assured destruction, conflict if any would almost certainly stay conventional. In fact if NATO had moved in about 50 to 100K troops at the invitation of Ukraine sometime over the past 3 months, its really unlikely that Putin would have upped…
It's useful to remember that "almost certainly" is a synonym for "not necessarily".