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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#351

Post by _ph_ »

cinntaile wrote: post #305
_ph_ wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is the core problem, that would have been to build a nuclear reactor so close to a major city, that you could run a pipe to it.

As you can tell from the map that's not really an issue. Nuclear power plants aren't in the middle of nowhere, they need access to an educated workforce. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-map-of-Nuclear-Power...

They aren't in the middle of nowhere, but usually quite a bit away from city centers, for safety reasons. Too far for a hot water line to be practical.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#352

Post by jquery »

Good for Germany. More economic pain to come Russia’s way if they continue to be an aggressor. I think this aggression has exceeded Putin’s worst case cost calculations already. NATO was supposed to fracture under the pressure. Instead Biden and the other leaders brought NATO together, totally united against Russia. And now even other countries like Finland are floating trial balloons of joining NATO. This is just a disaster for Russia.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#353

Post by syki »

dirtyid wrote: post #348
syki wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some Russians view Ukraine as legitimately part of Russia. China views Taiwan as part of China. China also wishes to garner as much support as possible for its desired takeover of Taiwan. The recent agreement between Russia and China spells out each country’s respective views on these matters. They are in agreement with each other.

The opposite. PRC subscribes to UN framework - it doesn't matter what some Russians or Taiwanese think, it's about norms within the framework. PRC and majority of UN views TW as part of China, it's a domestic / sovereignty issue. Whereas Ukraine is recognized as sovereign at UN, including by PRC, who has not formally recognized RU annexation of Crimea. RU further annexation of Ukraine undermines sovereignty of Ukrain…

I believe your analysis is wrong and that there is no way Russia would do what it is doing without approval from China. China will do nothing to punish Russia. They might make some meaningless gestures but nothing meaningful.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#354

Post by dirtyid »

tomp wrote: post #106
major505 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think china is too happy about this separatist support since this sets a precedent for territories they consider separatists like Taiwan.

I really don’t understand this logic. Or rather, it’s easy to turn it around. Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.

>That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.

Logic is for PRC, UKR is sovereign, TW is not. RU invading UKR is international war. PRC invading TW is domestic civil war. RU is violating UKR sovereignty, whereas US intervening on PRC civil war with TW would be foreign power violating Chinese sovereignty. PRC would be UKR sorting out domestic issues whereas US would be RU, an outside aggressor. Note PRC has not endorsed RU annexation of Ukraine including Crimea. Doesn't mean PRC doesn't support RU security concerns, but PRC would like it addressed via diplomacy without normalizing violating sovereignty of countries recognized at UN, which again TW is not. PRC and RU are not aligned on invasion, but it doesn't mean PRC will loudly oppose RU if it's against PRC interest.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#355

Post by cinntaile »

_ph_ wrote: post #351
cinntaile wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you can tell from the map that's not really an issue. Nuclear power plants aren't in the middle of nowhere, they need access to an educated workforce. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-map-of-Nuclear-Power...

They aren't in the middle of nowhere, but usually quite a bit away from city centers, for safety reasons. Too far for a hot water line to be practical.

Up to 30km is no problem for water between 90-175 degrees celcius, so you reach plenty of cities.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.080

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#356

Post by dathinab »

coolspot wrote: post #345
dathinab wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a good test drive. The situation around Taiwan is fundamentally different and can't be compared. The US or even EU just care soso about Ukraine. The lost of trust of partners, lost face and potential follow up actions and consequences are things they care about more then the Ukraine itself. Hence why they didn't get too much involved in recent years. But at least the US cares _a lot_ about Taiwan and the EU…

That is why US helps TSMC to move factories to the US.

The new US factories of TSMC are more about availability during a war then about not defending Taiwan.

TSMC is a Taiwaneese company down to the core, they likely won't be around anymore if Taiwan is gone.

Plus building semiconductor factories takes a long time, weather it's TSMC or Samsung. So China would need to wait for another ~8 Years.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#357

Post by dirtyid »

syki wrote: post #353
dirtyid wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The opposite. PRC subscribes to UN framework - it doesn't matter what some Russians or Taiwanese think, it's about norms within the framework. PRC and majority of UN views TW as part of China, it's a domestic / sovereignty issue. Whereas Ukraine is recognized as sovereign at UN, including by PRC, who has not formally recognized RU annexation of Crimea. RU further annexation of Ukraine undermines sovereignty of Ukrain…

I believe your analysis is wrong and that there is no way Russia would do what it is doing without approval from China. China will do nothing to punish Russia. They might make some meaningless gestures but nothing meaningful.

Putin has been looking to secure western border since always. Why does RU need PRC approval? RU does what's in RU interests, the fact that RU had courtesy to wait until after Olympics is about as much leverage PRC has in the situation. And why does PRC need to punish RU or do anything meaningful if doing nothing is likely more optimal for PRC. The geopolitical calculus is all over the place, no reason to be hasty.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#358

Post by rich_sasha »

parasense wrote: post #318
rosndo wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they’d rather depend on an ally than an openly hostile state. Because the US would massively subsidize LNG exports to EU in order to support their allies?

> Because they’d rather depend on an ally than an openly hostile state. That's the assumption, but it doesn't follow natural economic laws.... where price ultimately prevails. One only needs to look at how global oil prices were weaponized, in essence Persian-gulf oil producers openly conspired to sell barrels of oil cheaply to deprive their South American oil exporting competitors from realizing higher gains. And...…

For every $1 spent on Russian gas, I need to spend an extra $X on armament, to counter the extra Russian defence spending funded with the gas.

Spending that money, or a bit more, in the US, at least I’m not funding an openly hostile regime. Some would eve argue you could reduce your defence spending by some amount $Y.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#359

Post by rich_sasha »

BurningPenguin wrote: post #101
bungle wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there All electricity basically turns to heat at some point. So why not?

Maybe because 90%* of all houses need to be refitted. (*estimated number out of thin air, but yes majority is gas or oil)

In the UK, air source heat pumps are pushed as a 1:1 replacement, with running costs basically the same as gas, in GBP.

I can’t verify that easily, but this doesn’t seem disputed, so the retrofitting is maybe not so much of an issue. There is of course the initial installation cost, but also presumably lower maintenance costs.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#360

Post by stjohnswarts »

DeathArrow wrote: post #200
nabla9 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU is improved LNG capacity (LNG terminals and LNG regasification capacity) as a policy. LNG imports will take over Russian gas over medium term. After regasification the gas goes to same pipes. Biden has discussed with US energy companies on how to get them into providing LNG capacity to European needs.

Wouldn't LNG from US be much more expensive than gas from Russia? Why would European countries pay for it?

Why would you buy gas from the country that obviously has goals of invading countries, killing people, and possibly moving into your country next? Seems like paying a bit more from a friendly country is a better idea. Russia aims to takeover Ukraine and end its "western liberalism", kill dissidents, and possibly kill/imprison LGBQT and other non-traditional groups.
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