Times are great for programmers now. How does it end? • Hacker News Board

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#211

Post by ir123 » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:04 AM UTC

Other people know more than me but the times are good now because the VC's are playing a ponzi scheme (or greater fool theory). Each VC puts in money simply because the valuation will go up and there would be another VC wanting in, willing to pay more. VC's have a lot of cash for whatever reason, low interest rate or Oil money. Hot take: this is not dissimilar to what is happening to crypto.

We developers are just part of this game, just incidental to the story. We are paid more simply because a lot of money comes in from top, not for some nonsense like we are "highly skilled" or the supply is less.

Yes I do believe that most of tech is a zero sum game, hardly any value is created.

Where does it end? It ends when VC's get bored of this game and move on to other things

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#212

Post by hooby » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:06 AM UTC

Programmers are increasingly needed for *everything*.

I mean, we've entered an age, where a farmer can't milk their cows, if the software of the milking robot has a hitch - can't plow their fields, when the gps-software that drives the tractor isn't working.

Apart from that, programming is becoming every other job - as far as domain knowledge is concerned.

I've personally experienced (multiple times!) professional accounting companies complaining about not being able to just modify official invoices (totally illegal) but having to cancel and re-issue them with a new invoice number (how it MUST be done). -> It's now the responsibility of the programmers to understand how accounting works. Professional accountants just click a button and expect the software to "do the right thing". -> As in this case, the professional accountant no longer adds much value, they'll probably be entirely replaced by software at some point.

A more relatable example might be Taxis drivers. It might take years still, but at some point, all Taxis will be self-driving vehicles, created by robots in a fully automated factory. Programmers will be needed for the driving software and the factory software. You might still need some mechanics to repair the factory robots - until when that job is done by robots as well (that have to be programmed).

It currently seems more likely to me, that we are headed towards a future, where programming is the *only* job - and everything else is done by software.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#213

Post by TeeWEE » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:06 AM UTC

can16358p wrote: post #210

It won't end for anyone who can stay relevant and adopt to the new tech. It will end for everyone who is stuck at current tech which will be "past" in the future, both for tooling/tech and most importantly mindset. For example, React Native and Solidity pays well nowadays. I know they will probably be replaced with something else (in terms of demand, not necessarily an immediate technical successor). If I don't start…

React Native is dying AFAIK? Its mostly Flutter and ML that's souring?

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#214

Post by dzikimarian » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:07 AM UTC

LAC-Tech wrote: post #176

I feel like we have so much leverage and don't use it at all. We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. It's nuts to me that a skilled profession - that not many can do - lets themselves get micro-managed like this. If anyone has read Developer Hegemony , I'm fully on board with that general premise - we start operating like lawyers with partnerships, a…

Typically if you don't have development team, that really works directly with the customer (being mostly silent on random calls doesn't count) - without some kind of project manager, you'll end up with a lot of work done by dev team, which they falsely assume is necessary (unrealistic edge cases, premature optimization, misunderstood requirements).

Most of the teams I worked with, found direct work with customer way worse than some internal alignment meetings.

That being said, most effective teams I worked with(as dev and as supervisor), were managed by ex or active senior developers, who really put an effort into businesses side of the work, so they had full perspective of both sides.

Problem is: * First and foremost - most developers are not interested in this type of work. * Not all are capable * Most of these who do that, internally still uses dailies, unless everyone in their team is on the same level (which is extremely rare due to point one).

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#215

Post by WJW » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:12 AM UTC

gieksosz wrote: post #183

LAC-Tech wrote: post #176

I feel like we have so much leverage and don't use it at all. We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. It's nuts to me that a skilled profession - that not many can do - lets themselves get micro-managed like this. If anyone has read Developer Hegemony , I'm fully on board with that general premise - we start operating like lawyers with partnerships, a…

There are such partnerships, they are called dev agencies. Usually good for partners themselves, less so for rank and file employees.

That is exactly the problem with the "Dev Hegemony" book; it spends the first half of the book showing how the current system naturally evolves from very human flaws like ambition and pride, then tries to spend the second half of the book going "Yeah but what if we all start treating each other as equals (except non-programmer, they get to be non-owner employees only)". World peace would also be an easy problem to solve if you can get everyone to just get along, but without a practical way of getting there it's just a pipe dream.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#216

Post by edanm » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:13 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #206

edanm wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. I highly disagree with this. For some reason, many devs seem to think they are somehow better than everyone else, that they are the most important part of any team, that no on besides them can have any insight on timelines, or budget, on which features are or aren't important. News flash - all of the above is…

and yet i don't tell my plumbers to give me a standup for the day. I tell them what i wanted achieved, and i pay. it gets done. If there's a delay, i expect the plumber to tell me promptly, and i re-evaluate the work. Some programmers do get treated this way - consultants and such. But the majority is not - they are considered a cog in a machine.

Plumbers that you personally hire to your house are similar to software consultants. They're often more than "just" plumbers - they're small business owners, so they do a lot of things besides plumbing (e.g. marketing, business management, etc). Again, similar to software contractors.

But take plumbers working construction on a 30-story building. They're usually part of a team, and work together with dozens if not hundreds of other professionals. Do you think they don't have meetings where they get together with the other teams, discuss problems, progress etc?

I'm not defending stand-ups here, btw. Sometimes they make sense, sometimes they don't. But if your measure of "developers are treated badly" is "developers are asked to be in a 10-minute meeting to talk about their work progress", I think you're missing the forest for the trees in terms of what are and aren't good working conditions.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#217

Post by LAC-Tech » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:14 AM UTC

WJW wrote: post #215

gieksosz wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are such partnerships, they are called dev agencies. Usually good for partners themselves, less so for rank and file employees.

That is exactly the problem with the "Dev Hegemony" book; it spends the first half of the book showing how the current system naturally evolves from very human flaws like ambition and pride, then tries to spend the second half of the book going "Yeah but what if we all start treating each other as equals (except non-programmer, they get to be non-owner employees only)". World peace would also be an easy problem to so…

I mean I figure all I need to do is find one dev I get on well with to become a partner. In-fact someone floated it with me a few years ago and I was lukewarm because I didn't think I was ready (kind of regret it).

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#218

Post by 8note » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:14 AM UTC

JohnBooty wrote: post #168

analog31 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that I think about, is that we live in the greatest tech driven economy in the history of humanity, and it grows at a rate of about 2% per year. What I don't believe is that every programming activity contributes equally to that growth. By "activity" I loosely mean anything from a solo programmer to a large software business. Some are assets to the economy, others are liabilities, yet they pay the same sala…

It's hard to say, because so much of the work of keeping a company running is so far removed from income generation or anything else. Does cleaning the company toilets contribute to the company's growth? I mean, not really, but on the other hand if nobody ever does it then it becomes an impediment. A lot of programming work is like that.

with work from hone,everyones responsible for cleaning toilets, rather than having a dedicated cleaner

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#219

Post by WJW » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:16 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #206

edanm wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. I highly disagree with this. For some reason, many devs seem to think they are somehow better than everyone else, that they are the most important part of any team, that no on besides them can have any insight on timelines, or budget, on which features are or aren't important. News flash - all of the above is…

and yet i don't tell my plumbers to give me a standup for the day. I tell them what i wanted achieved, and i pay. it gets done. If there's a delay, i expect the plumber to tell me promptly, and i re-evaluate the work. Some programmers do get treated this way - consultants and such. But the majority is not - they are considered a cog in a machine.

The plumber at your home is exactly like a freelance developer though? The plumbing equivalent of working as a dev for a bigco would probably be assembling engines in a factory or something like that, and factories most definitely have start-of-shift meetings. Even if it's just "pay extra attention to workplace safety y'all, the inspection might come by today".

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#220

Post by durnygbur » Mon, Feb 21, 2022, 8:17 AM UTC

As a web/fullstack with over 10 years of experience and based in EU, I don't have this impression at all. Actively applying and interviewing, still receiving absurd requests to resolve various quizzes, teasers, and assignments. Potential salaries top at miserable 70-80k EUR in countries where monthly salary deductions reach 40%. It's better for me to basically seat idle and work on some personal projects.