131–140 of 611 posts
Very few comments in this thread talking about what he concludes as the most likely scenario- "decreased investment". Just what will happen when the Fed is forced to raise interest rates? What will happen to the unprofitable unicorns or even unprofitable public unicorns, much less all of the no-name startups burning VC capital? Surely not every Uber is going to get the Amazon treatment and allowed to keep burning unt…
> The markets are doing their thing. Everyone sees tech workers making money and just generally having a good time and they think: “Hey that sounds like a good career choice”. It seems like you could replace tech workers with any other profession that sounds like a good career choice. Can literally everyone (or even the majority) learn to code? Do they want to learn to code? In my experience, the answer to both quest…
I think almost anyone could learn to code, but they get to the doing of it and find out that they don't want to. Most people don't want to plan, do logic puzzles and problem solve all day, and when they figure out that, that's the majority of it in type form and some meetings thrown in, so you can do it in groups... the movie romance dies away pretty quickly. WTF! There's no cool 3D graphics and hacking while we list…
I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…
I would expect layers of abstraction to continue to build up and programming to become something like using spreadsheets to do your actual task. But in general, people have been saying this for 50+ years. It hasn't happened yet for (at least) two reasons. 1. Increased demands on programmers have increased at least as quickly as their productivity has skyrocketed. 2. Non-trivial systems will require some non-trivial e…
Economic growth is close enough to 0%, that a decent rule of thumb is that whether any specific activity is an asset or a liability to the business that engages in it, is a coin toss.
This is reflected in comments made by developers themselves, to the effect of, "I don't know why we're doing this, it's going to cost a lot of money and make things worse." These kinds of comments are about projects that they're working on themselves.
All it takes is two things: 1. The investor bubble to bust - and I think this will happen due to the soon to be rising interest rates making capital much more difficult too secure. 2. One of the big employers dumps devs into the market - say one of the FAANG companies has a sever downturn and lays of thousands of devs. Don't think it can happen - Facebook and Google are just a few regulations away from mass lay offs…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would expect layers of abstraction to continue to build up and programming to become something like using spreadsheets to do your actual task. But in general, people have been saying this for 50+ years. It hasn't happened yet for (at least) two reasons. 1. Increased demands on programmers have increased at least as quickly as their productivity has skyrocketed. 2. Non-trivial systems will require some non-trivial e…
Just because it has not completed doesn't mean it isn't happening. These days very small number of people know how computers actually work(how many know assembly or even C?) but there's a huge number of people building their businesses by programming machines do things. In the last 20 years, people were using languages close to English to express their ideas to a computer and make it do work. You touch computer scien…
Same with Visual Basic. No more application developers. Just drag and drop!
You might ask yourself why VB6 or Delphi didn't simply rule the world forever. We had those ~25 years ago and with those tools, non-engineers could drag and drop their client/server database-CRUD apps together. Hell, you could do most of that stuff in FoxPro or dBase even earlier, minus the GUI.
You touch computer science stuff only when you
dive deep in something that hasn't been commercialised
completely and when the market is large enough it
quickly develops into services where you tell
the computer do things in "plain English".
The "plain English" bit is hilarious. Human languages are extremely imprecise. That's why we have specialized "languages" for lots of things: math, music, etc. Maybe you are living in another universe where AppleScript took over, I don't know.
Ask yourself if "plain English" tools have replaced engineers in other specialized disciplines. Can I tell my keyboard to write me a song in "plain English?" Can I design an airplane in "plain English?" Can I build a bridge in "plain English?"
These days very small number of people know
how computers actually work(how many know
assembly or even C?)
But the bottom line is, somebody needs to describe complex processes to the computer in a very precise way that handles lots of edge cases, filthy data, errors, etc.
At some point, somebody has to write that logic and if there's more than one person doing it they'll need a development pipeline of some sort. And they'll need to do it in a maintainable and scalable way.
The tools are generally not the limiting factors here. You could replace Javascript and Python and Ruby with world's friendliest, code-free GUIs but you'd still have to describe those processes in an equal amount of detail and do it in equally maintainable and scalable ways, and I doubt it would be as terse or as expressive as the aforementioned languages.
Similar abstractions have been happening
everywhere, from AI to game development
or graphics generation everything is so
abstracted that all you need is to learn
the tool through a few tutorials to be
productive.
Drag and drop all the sweet zero-code shit together you want in Unreal Engine; somebody has still got to sanitize and massage the weirdo sometimes-broken JSON that our partner's API likes to return sometimes and handle the error states when it can't be fixed.
I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…
I would expect layers of abstraction to continue to build up and programming to become something like using spreadsheets to do your actual task. But in general, people have been saying this for 50+ years. It hasn't happened yet for (at least) two reasons. 1. Increased demands on programmers have increased at least as quickly as their productivity has skyrocketed. 2. Non-trivial systems will require some non-trivial e…
So does anyone know what the most productive programming tool is then?
The major difference is deep learning because viable because parallel computing became 3+ orders of magnitude cheaper. Low-code isn't limited by technical limitations, so I don't see anything changing anytime soon.
All it takes is two things: 1. The investor bubble to bust - and I think this will happen due to the soon to be rising interest rates making capital much more difficult too secure. 2. One of the big employers dumps devs into the market - say one of the FAANG companies has a sever downturn and lays of thousands of devs. Don't think it can happen - Facebook and Google are just a few regulations away from mass lay offs…
While FB/Meta is in a vulnerable position, they still make 30B+ a quarter, and a net income of 10B.
Google in such a strong position, that it seems there will be nobody that will/can disrupt it, even though their search results haven't been the greatest. Even if they got 'broken up' by the regulators, Search, Youtube, Google Apps, entities by themselves will probably be bigger and employ more people combined (the Baby Bell, breakup is a good precedent of it, where the sum of the pieces was larger than the original company).
The reality is tech is becoming more and more important for everything in society. Eg. Cars: Tech was about 10% of the cost of a typical car in the 90s, now is over 35% and increasing. Cars can't be build because lack of chips and not lack of manpower or aluminum/steel.
The pandemic increased the acceleration of all tech by at least 5 years, and increased demand overnight. Even when things start normalizing, some of it will stick along, as for many people the day to day life has changed, and some 'work for home' or hybrid work is here to stay.
Will we see soft hiring seasons? Absolutely. In the next recession, probably hiring will be softer, and people will have harder time to find a job in the short term, (think 2008-2009), but expect in the long term that technology will take a higher percentage of the economy and tech hiring will be going up on the long term.
I've always remembered that, and try not to take the good times for granted. But damn it's been going on 25 years now, and except for little hiccups in 2001 and 2008, demand for programmers is still white hot.
All it takes is two things: 1. The investor bubble to bust - and I think this will happen due to the soon to be rising interest rates making capital much more difficult too secure. 2. One of the big employers dumps devs into the market - say one of the FAANG companies has a sever downturn and lays of thousands of devs. Don't think it can happen - Facebook and Google are just a few regulations away from mass lay offs…
But honestly, I’m more worried about aging out of this career then encountering another downturn. While things are better than they used to be, the pressure to continuously increase one’s value every year will necessarily wash some programmers out simply over time.