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95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

danluu.com

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Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#71
He's basically right. Here's another example, math contests.

When I was in high school I was really into math. I was way ahead of my year group and I figured it was more interesting to do special problems of the "what is the last digit of 2^2022" variety, the kind of thing that didn't turn up on normal homework, but also not terribly complicated, the kind of thing you can figure out with a short burst of concentration.

So I went to math contests around Europe with other schools. The thing was that most kids I met there were totally ordinary at maths. Sure, some were really quite good, but most of the bottom 75% were indistinguishable from your normal kid who doesn't know at 15 what an integral is. The friends on my team weren't even in the top set math class at my little school, but my observation was that most kids from the other schools weren't either. Most were along for the ride, much like myself at school sports events where you also got a trip across Europe for participating.

I did okay at it, and in my final year we had a couple of really good kids on the team and won the contest. I thought that was pretty cool, but I also knew I wasn't close to the pinnacle of math contestery. Fact was I was like that kid who just had some natural ability but I didn't really practice a huge amount and nobody suggested there was a way to get much better. If you added up all the extra practice compared to just sitting in math class, maybe it was a couple of extra lessons a week, with more interesting homework. My math teacher was a great motivator whom I still keep in touch with, but we only had him and his experience.

Fast forward to now and I recently discovered a friend of mine got a top 10 at the IMO. Basically top 10 among all high school kids on the planet. I can ask him the occasional interesting question that I see on FB, and he'll know how to do it. He did proper years of training in math, had a very famous coach among others, and went through the eye of the needle several times. There's a world of difference between that and your casual have-a-go person.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#72
post #17

Admittedly, I only skimmed this. But within the space of video games, I’m not sure Overwatch is a stunning example since it’s generally a casual game. I’ve been playing various iterations of Counter-Strike and StarCraft for decades. Sometimes with deliberate practice, including reading strategies, playing custom maps to practice certain skills, and watching series aimed at improving level of play. And despite the hun…

I bet %95 of the people who do Ski jumping are THAT GOOD because they are already an elite subset of the population. That is probably true for all the professional athletes.

As a result, athletes mostly compete on the higher end where everyone is very good and all the hard work they put in barely moves the needle due to the law of diminishing returns.

My point is, the percentile is likely to be defined around how hard or easy it is to reach the point where putting in effort starts yielding less and less of returns.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using a shopping list would actually save you time to spend elsewhere rather than at a crappy grocery store :)

More time to spend bikeshedding the ultimate grocery list productivity process and integrating a smart refrigerator!

I'll see your bikeshed and raise you a yak shave. Sometimes I just need to be "good enough" at something because it's not my ultimate goal (aka the thing I want to accomplish or be good at).

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#74
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

> Poke around Reddit or even HN and this work minimization mindset is even celebrated by a lot of people. If you’ve been surrounded by high achievers and motivated people who would have chosen programming jobs because that’s what they like to do every day, it can be a shock to work with people who really just hate doing anything that resembles work. Yet they’re out there, in surprisingly large numbers. You say this l…

I'm not sure if you are assuming it correctly.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would counter with the idea that seniority and programming ability are inversely proportional via The Gervais Principal (mentioned on hn again just recently)

The Gervais Principle is literally a joke

Was it meant as a joke?

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being even 50%-ile among professionals for either would certainly be extremely impressive. I think you'd be surprised at how low the bar is. And how people either 1) don't care about actively improving or 2) don't effectively learn from their mistakes. For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. And for other people they never developed a growt…

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

>Only later did I realize that I was surrounded by those people because my managers actively selected for those hires and carefully weeded out the people who weren’t interested in anything other than doing the bare minimum to collect a paycheck.

I'm going to counter it, I did always my best. But I got shot. But.......... I'm again back with more power as a front-ens developer. (Not searching for work at the moment.)

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#77
post #17

Admittedly, I only skimmed this. But within the space of video games, I’m not sure Overwatch is a stunning example since it’s generally a casual game. I’ve been playing various iterations of Counter-Strike and StarCraft for decades. Sometimes with deliberate practice, including reading strategies, playing custom maps to practice certain skills, and watching series aimed at improving level of play. And despite the hun…

In every competitive game I've ever played (Overwatch, CSGO, LoL, TFT, Rocket League), the top 5% definitely wasn't "that good". In my mind, the top 20% are people who actually play. If you are stuck anywhere below that, you aren't even trying to improve. If a leaderboard says you haven't even cracked top 50%, then that leaderboard is definitely cutting players that don't play much from the bottom of that list. In mo…

>Then the top 5% is when you start understanding the game at a competitive level. The very start.

On the other hand, your handle is "xbox, no life".

The whole OP premise is:

"Reaching 95%-ile isn't very impressive because it's not that hard to do. I think this is one of my most ridiculable ideas. It doesn't help that, when stated nakedly, that sounds elitist. But I think it's just the opposite: most people can become (relatively) good at most things. Note that when I say 95%-ile, I mean 95%-ile among people who participate, not all people (for many activities, just doing it at all makes you 99%-ile or above across all people). I'm also not referring to 95%-ile among people who practice regularly. The "one weird trick" is that, for a lot of activities, being something like 10%-ile among people who practice can make you something like 90%-ile or 99%-ile among people who participate."

It might not be impressive if you have a monomania on the specific subject, but it is very impressive when you also have a life, and this is just one thing you do...

Even more so if you're 95% on more than one things (imaging meeting someone that's 95% programmer, conversationalist, cook, guitar player, marathon runner, business owner, ... He would automatically be hella more impressive than the huge majority of people you meet)...

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#78
post #33

The caveat is that in any activity you’re disproportionately likely to encounter those who practice that activity the most. Therefore, you could be in the 90th percentile of participants, but below average against those you encounter.

Also true (I guess) very difficult to make a good assumption about it.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#79
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading the comment carefully, they seem to suggest a heavy use of culling. But I'd also be interested in what other steps work and don't work.

Hate to sound trite, but it often is the culture. If people feel siloed it's really easy to fall into not caring very much if you're not intrinsically motivated to succeed. However, on a closely knit team, where you put in the effort to get them included and owning things and be supported by the rest of the team in it, many start performing better (even if that starts by just asking for help earlier) simply because t…

It's not trite and I wish people didn't need to feel like apologizing for it.

This has been central to my life the last several years, this culture and person-fit issue. I've seen it play out with friends and family and it's surprising to me it isn't recognized as such. A close friend went from almost literally rockstar status at one place, and moved for reasons that had nothing to do with him or where he was at. He completely fell apart performance-wise at the new place because he didn't fit in to the same extent, went back, and now is doing great again. I don't think the new place was bad, or him, it was just this poor person-culture fit issue.

My spouse was somewhere she was treated like dirt, never quite welcomed into the team (she wasn't the only one, but it was the case nevertheless), and then treated her like a failing employee when she wasn't acting the way they wanted her to (however that was). She left, and now is bringing in more money for the new company than any other employee, in large part in my opinion just because they actually let her be part of the team (this second place is actually a much larger company).

The experience of being siloed is awful, and even if you are intrinsically motivated, can be completely demotivating, because if it's bad enough, it leads to this feeling of complete loss of control where you're at. There's also all these little things that even if you're super competent, you might need help with, just as a function of being a human being as part of a larger organization.

I could go on with stories like this, but suffice to say I think in a lot of places management often doesn't look inward enough. I think the churn continues because for whatever reason the culture change is more painful for them to contemplate and implement than whatever losses are incurred by high turnover in a given position. The last place I was at had entire key units just resign completely together en masse, and the response after they left was "well I guess we're not good at [key function] so we'll just go on without that." In an important sense they had to narrow the scope of what they offer because of culture problems.

And yet we end up having these discussions of displaced employees not being "intrinsically motivated" enough, as if that happens in a vacuum.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#80
post #56
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your observation is perfectly compatible with the notion you quoted from the article. It's just that the 95%-ile photography major or art major etc is not gonna make money from photography or art. Nobody buys the records of a 95%-ile musician either. (Though you can probably teach music at that skill level and earn a living.) In comparison, a 95%-ile engineer can expect to make a decent living from engineering. > I t…

the 95%-ile is irrelevant - it's more the sector that matters. a 5%-ile doctor is still going to be able to do the work of a doctor. The reason photography or art/music require a 99%-ile is because these sectors require popularity, and the quality is subjective. Only the most popular pieces make any money - the rest are passion projects by its creators. Engineering sectors don't need it - there's an objective standar…

Maybe. Though compare also https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/28/non-dual-awareness/
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