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95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

danluu.com

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Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

Man, that's a really screwed up outlook I got piped out of Microsoft and Amazon, both cases after years of excellence on my part because my VP lost a fight with another VP. In my case, I knew that I was a five star engineer in a 3 star company and landed on my feet easily both times. The experience was awful, though, and anyone with an ounce of humility or respect for authority could have been crushed by it easily. Y…

You sound a bit bitter?

You should re-read the comment you replied to carefully. PragmaticPulp doesn't imply that everyone on a PiP is bad a person and should feel bad.

For PragmaticPulp's argument it is more than enough that people on the job market skew towards being worse employees. Similarly, people on a PiP skew towards being lower achievers.

> IMO, you and every salaried engineer are someone who's willing to settle for donating 90% of the profits from their labor to shareholders in exchange for a little bit of comfort and an illusion of safety.

Where do you get the 90% figure from?

In general, it's really, really easy to start a company that makes use of programmer labour. Barriers to entry in the buy-side of the market for programmers are low. Especially with the more globalised labour market we got out of the pandemic.

So colour me suspicious of the notion that it's trivial to 'exploit' programmers and steal their lunch like you suggest.

Keep in mind that that most software projects in most companies are delayed or fail outright.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

Curious what steps you took to get the most out of your team when some teammates aren't intrinsically motivated? Did you build a sort of incentive structure?

Reading the comment carefully, they seem to suggest a heavy use of culling. But I'd also be interested in what other steps work and don't work.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#43
post #14

Trivial to be top 5 percent of the general population at programming Possible to be top 5 percent of the programmers Very difficult to be in the top 5 percent of FANG programmers Nearly impossible to be in the top 5 percent of Google Principal engineers

I would counter with the idea that seniority and programming ability are inversely proportional via The Gervais Principal (mentioned on hn again just recently)

The Gervais Principle is literally a joke

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would counter with the idea that seniority and programming ability are inversely proportional via The Gervais Principal (mentioned on hn again just recently)

The Gervais Principle is literally a joke

No post body was provided.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#45
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would counter with the idea that seniority and programming ability are inversely proportional via The Gervais Principal (mentioned on hn again just recently)

Principal Engineers at Google know their stuff, a viral blogpost notwithstanding.

That blogpost doesn't even contradict this.

In the terms of that article, Principal Engineers would perhaps be classified as 'losers'.

> The Gervais principle differs from the Peter Principle, which it superficially resembles. The Peter Principle states that all people are promoted to the level of their incompetence. It is based on the assumption that future promotions are based on past performance. The Peter Principle is wrong for the simple reason that executives aren’t that stupid, and because there isn’t that much room in an upward-narrowing pyramid. They know what it takes for a promotion candidate to perform at the to level. So if they are promoting people beyond their competence anyway, under conditions of opportunity scarcity, there must be a good reason.

> Scott Adams, seeing a different flaw in the Peter Principle, proposed the Dilbert Principle: that companies tend to systematically promote their least-competent employees to middle management to limit the damage they can do. This again is untrue. The Gervais principle predicts the exact opposite: that the most competent ones will be promoted to middle management. Michael Scott was a star salesman before he become a Clueless middle manager. The least competent employees (but not all of them — only certain enlightened incompetents) will be promoted not to middle management, but fast-tracked through to senior management. To the Sociopath level.

From https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-...

To be clear: I mean to imply no opinion on whether 'The Gervais Principle' is true nor applicable. I'm just saying that 'The Gervais Principle' is perfectly compatible with Principal Engineers at Google knowing their stuff.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#46
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to choose the right thing to be in the top 0.01 percent of. Being the 200th best bobsledder probably sucks. Being in the top 200 lawyers is probably pretty awesome.

And if you’re in the top, say 1/3, of engineers you’ll make a good living. If you’re in the top 1% of say, chess players, you probably won’t even get tournament invites.

Though you might be able to make a living with teaching chess.

Similarly for musicians: teaching music is a reasonably stable income stream.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#47

>But I think it's just the opposite: most people can become (relatively) good at most things. I think this point of view is not only blatantly false but also much more dangerous than most people realize. It sets an unrealistic standard across all disciplines, with a wide range of detrimental effects: 1. People entering majors that they are not qualified for, taking on more debt and failing later than than they otherw…

Your observation is perfectly compatible with the notion you quoted from the article.

It's just that the 95%-ile photography major or art major etc is not gonna make money from photography or art. Nobody buys the records of a 95%-ile musician either. (Though you can probably teach music at that skill level and earn a living.)

In comparison, a 95%-ile engineer can expect to make a decent living from engineering.

> I think this point of view is not only blatantly false but also much more dangerous than most people realize.

I partially agree about the notion being dangerous, despite probably being true.

The thing is that most people never put in the conscious effort required to get to 95%-ile proficiency. Despite any exhortations to the contrary.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#48
post #20

The classic "oh actually that's a 1 in 20 occurrence rate" issue.

"95 percentile" vs "1 in 20" is a good example of how confusing statistics are. First sounds excellent, second sounds like anyone could (try to) do it.

Yes. Though I think the more interesting part of the article are when the author goes into the detailed mechanics of how that effort looks like for two examples.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

Man, that's a really screwed up outlook I got piped out of Microsoft and Amazon, both cases after years of excellence on my part because my VP lost a fight with another VP. In my case, I knew that I was a five star engineer in a 3 star company and landed on my feet easily both times. The experience was awful, though, and anyone with an ounce of humility or respect for authority could have been crushed by it easily. Y…

That's not true. If you are at a big tech company, working on a small feature, at least you'll know a lot of people will be affected or use what you do.

If you are at a startup, you are doing a lot, but there's a big chance no one will ever see it.

Bigger risk, bigger reward. Most people are driven by what makes them feel good, not just money.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being even 50%-ile among professionals for either would certainly be extremely impressive. I think you'd be surprised at how low the bar is. And how people either 1) don't care about actively improving or 2) don't effectively learn from their mistakes. For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. And for other people they never developed a growt…

> For a lot of people their career is just a way to get paid. As long as they don't get fired that's enough for them. This was one of my hardest earned lessons when I became a manager. Previously I had worked my way into high-performing teams where everybody really cared about doing a good job. I was so surrounded by people with that mindset that I assumed that’s just how everybody in tech operated. Only later did I…

> Poke around Reddit or even HN and this work minimization mindset is even celebrated by a lot of people. If you’ve been surrounded by high achievers and motivated people who would have chosen programming jobs because that’s what they like to do every day, it can be a shock to work with people who really just hate doing anything that resembles work. Yet they’re out there, in surprisingly large numbers.

You say this like its a bad thing?

Even still, wanting to work less but taking pride in your work aren't mutually exclusive ideas. Id prefer to work as little as possible, I always do the best I can though and take care to be thoughtful and do things right. Im just not going to bend over backwards for a corporation.

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