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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#401

Post by WA »

dboreham wrote: post #111
caditinpiscinam wrote: post #70

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

Because in the context of regulations, they don't claim it to be self-driving.

Which I don't understand. Marketing is part of what makes the product. You can't simply promise stuff on your website and then put something else in the fine print. If you market the thing as (almost) self-driving, then the fine-print doesn't really matter. It is about customer expectations.

Most regulated products require post market surveillance. You have to actively monitor the market and how consumers behave. If they have a misunderstanding about the intended use of your product, you're overpromising. Which is clearly the case here if Tesla did their post market surveillance correctly.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#402

Post by josefx »

KennyBlanken wrote: post #348
contravariant wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

> are better maintained, etc.

Recent statistics released by TüV^1 show that among relatively new cars Tesla competes with Dacia for the highest failure rate among all cars that go through Germanies mandatory road worthiness tests.

^1 https://www.pcwelt.de/news/TUeV-warnt-vor-typischer-Schwachs...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#403

Post by [deleted] »

sokoloff wrote: post #91
TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would injury crashes go unreported?

If I had a single-car crash with minor injuries, why would I report it? It seems like there’s limited upside to me as the (obviously at-fault) driver. Go get medical care and go get my car fixed. (I drive cars cheap enough to replace and so do not insure them against collisions that are my fault.) Drivers driving without a valid license, without insurance, under the influence, wanted by the law, etc would have all ki…

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#405

Post by tim333 »

leroman wrote: post #404

Insurance companies most probably have all the data at hand, couldn't coverage price reflect the real world risk as seen by someone with something to lose?

Teslas are pricey to fix so it'd be hard to tell just from the premiums.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#406

Post by bratwurst3000 »

Yeah no shit. There is only one relevant data point and its teslas that got an accident with autopilot and without. That should spill out the lentgh of the track without accident….. for some reason tesla keeps comparing their high end cars with cars from the 90s……

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#407

Post by dtgriscom »

robbiepapiere wrote: post #389
kaba0 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, I think the biggest flaw in tesla’s statistics is that people will turn of autopilot when they see a dangerous situation ahead - it is pretty much as self-selecting “good” samples as it gets.

That seems irrelevant for the statistics, though? It doesn‘t give the Tesla driver an advantage.

It definitely skews the statistics. Compare two driver's records, but use all the driving of the first, and only the driving on safe/clear/clean/visible sections of highway for the second. Voila: the second will very probably be the "better" driver.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#408

Post by kergonath »

RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #398
kergonath wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What they really need is a blockchain. In Rust.

I like the idea. Introducing teslacoin, also crypto-powered climate control, and also real-time right of way auctioning.

In the interest of openness and accountability you need a transaction to turn the engine on, or to activate the brakes. They say that it takes a few milliseconds but never really tested it so who knows. Gives a new meaning to “gas fees”.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#409

Post by Yaggo »

robbiepapiere wrote: post #390
Yaggo wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains don't operate from door to door. The last mile problem persist, unless you travel between railway connected city centres. Not everyone lives anywhere near a railway station. (I live in Europe which has relatively good railway network, still I prefer my Tesla as transport method.)

There are trains that transport cars.

True, they also run such a trains here in Finland, an overnight trip from south to north (Lapland). The train tickets for our family of 5 plus a car are so expensive (total 1200 eur) compared to minimal marginal cost for using our EV (150 eur), that we always choose the car.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#410

Post by foxfluff »

OsmMapper wrote: post #400
jlmorton wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there are two arguments here: legality, and actual safety. I would argue that the slow rolling stop is perfectly safe in all cases, but the law exists as it is only to reduce ambiguity for enforcement. It's not a calculated risk - there is no circumstance where it's unsafe.

In the UK stop signs are rarely used, they are in places where visibility is so poor approaching the junction that it wouldn't be safe not to stop. There are definitely places where it isn't safe to roll through a stop sign, unfortunately in the US the system uses stop signs as a kind of traffic calming measure so then there isn't a clear way to mark the places where stopping is absolutely needed for safety. Of cours…

Given your nick, do you happen to know of a map where stop signs are plotted? I can't think of a single stop sign in my city..
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