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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#381

Post by kaba0 »

laen wrote: post #248
ummonk wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. Autopilot on aircraft is very different because pilots don't have to be ready to take over on a moment's notice. Of course they have to be monitoring the flight but they can be generally assured that the autopilot won't decide to just fly into a mountain with only fractions of a second for the pilots to intervene.

There are moments a pilot has seconds to react and disengage autopilot. Example: Traffic Resolution advisories require a 5 second reaction time and 2.5 seconds for any follow-on reactions. This reaction time includes the time to disengage autopilot and also put the aircraft into a climb-or-dive. Studies show that a situationally aware pilot takes at least 2 seconds to start the reaction, and another second to achieve…

The difference is that you can’t be a pilot with even as little physical impairment as a crooked nose and it takes extensive years to get a license, while every rich 18 years old can sleep behind a tesla’s wheel…

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#382

Post by kaba0 »

maxdo wrote: post #247
oblio wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Again volvo is a premium brand, so they don't want to invest more in EV to make your car more safe. Dude, really? https://group.volvocars.com/company/innovation/electrificati...

Volvo's plans all in the future, it's just a commitment. today is there in 2025, tomorrow web designer put another beautiful article with 2030. Gasoline cars is less safe to the same car with the same set of airbags just because of It's physics e.g. lower center of gravity, no engine in the front that can kill you during forward collision, battery at the bottom serve as a protection layer during other type of crashes…

> battery at the bottom serve as a protection layer during other type of crashes.

And it can nicely burst into flames that burn for hours on, without any easy way to put it out. I sure as hell would rather have a broken arm over being burnt alive in a steel frame.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#383

Post by flarg »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #370
gefhfffh wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, seems like you want a train

I'll answer that with another piece of prognostication: good highway self-driving will cause massive disruption to the airline industry. Would you rather do this for a business trip to a 400-500 mile away city: - fixed time to depart (and fixed for leaving your destination!) - have to book ticket weeks in advance for a reasonable flight - no flexiblity if plans change - pack a small bag - transit to an airport (parki…

Both trains and planes centralise assets, services and pathways, allowing for rent seeking and anti competitive behaviour, government and regulatory capture, and by their very nature are anti consumer and pro big business. Hence their dominance and the increasing pressure on self driving EVs.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#384

Post by kaba0 »

RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #263
oblio wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, you don't even need Tesla "self driving" for that. Adaptive cruise control, tech we've had for what, 20+ years? is more than enough for most highways, it takes out ~80% of the stress/boredom of driving, especially since lane changes are minimal and curves are gentle. The hard parts of driving (aka not highways) are the real problem, as expected. We solved the easy parts in 2000 and who knows if we'll so…

For sure. Though even non-tech people are well aware that adaptive cruise control cannot get us to true self driving but "AI" allegedly can.

When it approaches singularity levels. Until then, it will be only hyped-up robot-vacuum logic.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#385

Post by caf »

meheleventyone wrote: post #371
fedorareis wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were suggesting they want to use the same vehicle door to door with it being automated during the freeway bit. A train would still mean find some transport to the station, wait for the train, ride train, find transport from station.

Or a train that takes cars, like a Ferry, obviously that massively cuts down on space efficiency but it’s not impossible.

Called a Motorail: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorail

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#386

Post by mellavora »

sokoloff wrote: post #209
dmitriid wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autopilot is a tool. You can miss use it, sure. But if you care about safety it's hard to match with what they offer. 1. It's not autopilot, by any measurable criteria 2. As the adjusted data clearl shows, it's not that hard to match it. And since you mention Volvo, they definitely match it. They are honest enough though not to call it "autopilot", or "full safe driving" or pin the plame for its failures on the dri…

> It's not autopilot, by any measurable criteria It does seem quite comparable in capabilities to the actual autopilot in aircraft. And that’s what’s confusing to people; most don’t realize that an autopilot is a control used by a driver or pilot to reduce their workload. (As a pilot, I am still logging flight time as the “sole manipulator of controls” during the time the autopilot is engaged.)

>It does seem quite comparable in capabilities to the actual autopilot in aircraft.

including the system's assumption that the operator of the vehicle is doing so as a trained professional in that skill, including the extensive continuous training requirements required to maintain professional-level expertise?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#387

Post by dachryn »

kaba0 wrote: post #376
KennyBlanken wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Also, I think the biggest flaw in tesla’s statistics is that people will turn of autopilot when they see a dangerous situation ahead - it is pretty much as self-selecting “good” samples as it gets.

indeed, either they turn off autopilot to avoid the crash, or it crashed. The cases 'would have crashed if the human did not intervene' should also count if you want to claim it is super safe

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#388

Post by emedkit »

dachryn wrote: post #387
kaba0 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, I think the biggest flaw in tesla’s statistics is that people will turn of autopilot when they see a dangerous situation ahead - it is pretty much as self-selecting “good” samples as it gets.

indeed, either they turn off autopilot to avoid the crash, or it crashed. The cases 'would have crashed if the human did not intervene' should also count if you want to claim it is super safe

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#389

Post by robbiepapiere »

kaba0 wrote: post #376
KennyBlanken wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Also, I think the biggest flaw in tesla’s statistics is that people will turn of autopilot when they see a dangerous situation ahead - it is pretty much as self-selecting “good” samples as it gets.

That seems irrelevant for the statistics, though? It doesn‘t give the Tesla driver an advantage.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#390

Post by robbiepapiere »

Yaggo wrote: post #362
gefhfffh wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, seems like you want a train

Trains don't operate from door to door. The last mile problem persist, unless you travel between railway connected city centres. Not everyone lives anywhere near a railway station. (I live in Europe which has relatively good railway network, still I prefer my Tesla as transport method.)

There are trains that transport cars.
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