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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#191

Post by spywaregorilla »

mrtksn wrote: post #165
spywaregorilla wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be missing the point though. If this were significant, then human tesla drivers should be shown as performing much worse than other car drivers, because you're claiming they have a disproportionately large riding time in "tricky roads". A non tesla driver should be doing way better because they get to pad their score with the easy roads the autopilot supposedly gets.

Maybe that’s the case, Tesla data isn’t public. They don’t publish data but conclusions and their conclusions are questionable.

Actually its more an issue that other car companies don't publish their data for comparison.

On a dumb average tesla is way better, but it'd be more compelling if we could compare to new luxury brands with similar target markets

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#192

Post by jonathankoren »

bambax wrote: post #151
NikolaNovak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

> Yes it's legal IDK about the US, but in France the speed limit is a target speed; if conditions are good (weather, visibility, traffic) you're supposed to drive at or near maximum speed. It's illegal to drive too slow, and there's a specific fine for this. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/article_lc/LEGIARTI0000... [in French]

In the US it’s legally a max. I have seen — although rarely — entire lines of cars pulled over and ticketed for speeding on an interstate (limited access, multilane divided highway, max speed 65-70 mph (104-112 kph)) Driving too fast for conditions, is a different fine, so if it’s foggy and you’re going the posted limit, you could also get fined.

You can get ticketed for driving too slow, but I’ve never seen it. I’ve only seen a minimum speed posted on an interstate (45 mph (72 mph)), but conceivably you can get ticked anywhere for impeding the flow of traffic.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#193

Post by sandworm101 »

sebzim4500 wrote: post #173
sandworm101 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. For a company to program illegality into a product opens them up to untold liability. Normal car companies program their speedometers to read slightly high (5% ish). This keeps them from being into lawsuits by people who claim that an inaccurate speedometer contributed to the severity of a crash. Any car company who programs a car to drive faster than the limit will be either liable or have to pay lawyers in eve…

>Yes. For a company to program illegality into a product opens them up to untold liability. People have been saying this for years yet Tesla is not being sued into nonexistence. Presumably their contracts are written well enough that if the user tells the car to go above the speed limit that's on them.

Because incidents involving these programs are very small. At the moment there are very few Teslas on the road in comparison to other car companies. There would statistically only be a handful at most of such accidents. But give it a few years until there are 10x or 20x as many teslas on the road. Then the class actions will start. That is if, like here, Tesla hasn't already recalled all such vehicles.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#194

Post by sandworm101 »

IshKebab wrote: post #189
sandworm101 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car. Driver and buyer/owner are different things. Few teenagers ever buy a Tesla, but they certainly drive them. A car cannot only be safe in the hands of the rich initial buyer who lives in a nice climate. It must be safe in all the other people who that owner may let drive. It must also be safe for subsequent second and third owners, people who might not be wealthy en…

Uhm, I don't know what insanely rich middle eastern country you're from but in most of the world teenagers do not generally drive Teslas!!

Have you been to LA, SF, Vancouver or Denver? These are Teslas, not Ferraris. Lots of teenagers are driving their parent's tesla. Go look at any university parking lot and you will find plenty of 50,000$ cars.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#195

Post by [deleted] »

FireBeyond wrote: post #183
maxdo wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> Facts: Tesla was the first to introduce such wide range of safety features in every car they sold. Please itemize these "wide range of safety features" for us that other manufacturers do not have or did not have until Tesla innovated them. > They invest in own crash test facilities. Only Volvo is kind of on par. Audi owns one, for just one.

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#196

Post by ketzo »

jahewson wrote: post #149
jjulius wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your broader statement about autopilot's safety relative to other drivers, but... >The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. ... what ? Tesla owners absolutely can be habitua…

I read it that way at first too but I think the reasoning is actually correct. The population of Tesla drivers will of course resemble the overall population of drivers but most drivers are not sleepy/raging/drunks and by extension “most people buying Teslas aren't part of” that group either. To use an analogy: the average person has 1.9 legs but a product which results in its user having 1.95 legs is not an improvem…

Wow. Excellent analogy.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#197

Post by capableweb »

sudosysgen wrote: post #136
jjulius wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your broader statement about autopilot's safety relative to other drivers, but... >The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. ... what ? Tesla owners absolutely can be habitua…

Because they are buying an expensive, new car, meaning higher income, meaning that those things are less likely : https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/article/46/6/721/129644

In my person experience, the "drunk drivers", "road ragers", "habitual speeders" groups seems to be over-represented in expensive cars rather than cheaper cars. Poor people cannot afford to crash their car while rich people can.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#198

Post by mrtksn »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #191
mrtksn wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that’s the case, Tesla data isn’t public. They don’t publish data but conclusions and their conclusions are questionable.

Actually its more an issue that other car companies don't publish their data for comparison. On a dumb average tesla is way better, but it'd be more compelling if we could compare to new luxury brands with similar target markets

How it's other car companies fault that Tesla isn't publishing data so we can check if Autopilot miles are mostly on straight lines and human miles are at tricky situations?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#199

Post by dmitriid »

maxdo wrote: post #179
andrepd wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. If you're still surprised by this you've not been paying attention to how Telsa operates.

Quoted post unavailable.

> Autopilot is a tool. You can miss use it, sure. But if you care about safety it's hard to match with what they offer.

1. It's not autopilot, by any measurable criteria

2. As the adjusted data clearl shows, it's not that hard to match it. And since you mention Volvo, they definitely match it. They are honest enough though not to call it "autopilot", or "full safe driving" or pin the plame for its failures on the driver.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#200

Post by FireBeyond »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

Huh. Citation needed that drivers who buy, say, a Model S, particularly one with Ludicrous mode are less likely to be "habitual speeders" than the average driver.

This has come up before. When the new FSD beta started, people started claiming that safe driving was a function of vehicle price, and therefore Tesla drivers, especially those who had paid for FSD, were more likely to be safer. When I noted that my current vehicle costs more than a Model S, based on the logic, Tesla should be recruiting me to beta test FSD, well it was hard to find a refutation.

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