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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#341

Post by nanobyte »

FireBeyond wrote: post #226
maxdo wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, https://www.tesla.com/safety https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 Tesla roll out cars in generations. So just take a $40k Model 3/Y platform was introduced in 2017 and compare it with any car been introduced that year. My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. Tesla don't sell safety features…

Automatic emergency braking is a required standard feature in the US. Forward collision warning became standard in 2016 by at least ten manufacturers: Audi, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo. Without speaking to Blind Spot, my Audi does similar intelligent things. If you change lanes next to a vehicle or just in front of it, but you have a positive speed differentia…

Having driven Audis for years, including an A4, S4, and a recent model A4 (and other models as rentals in Germany), I can tell you definitively that Audi _pales_ in comparison to my Telsa Model Y in terms of safety. It's not even remotely comparable. Until you've driven one on a regular basis, it's hard to explain. They are light years ahead of traditional automakers, to the point of embarrassment.

Suffice it to say, I don't foresee myself ever buying or leasing a BMW or Audi again. Telsa is so far ahead that it probably won't compute unless you've driven one for a while.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#342

Post by spywaregorilla »

mrtksn wrote: post #198
spywaregorilla wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually its more an issue that other car companies don't publish their data for comparison. On a dumb average tesla is way better, but it'd be more compelling if we could compare to new luxury brands with similar target markets

How it's other car companies fault that Tesla isn't publishing data so we can check if Autopilot miles are mostly on straight lines and human miles are at tricky situations?

Tesla publishes the human accident rate, and the autopilot accident rate.

If another comparable car company published their human accident rate, and you were willing to assume that the baseline human accident rate should be the same for both brands, you could evaluate your hypothesis that Tesla is shoving the tricky situations onto humans.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#343

Post by avereveard »

maxdo wrote: post #237
ummonk wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't much of an accomplishment for Tesla to introduce safety features across its lineup, when its lineup consisted of luxury cars. Today, other car manufacturers are standardizing safety features across their model lineups while manufacturing cars that are a third the price of the cheapest Tesla.

BMW is a luxury Car, you still have to pay for safety extra. That's the difference. One car brand make it mandatory, other ask you extra dollars for every safety camera to install.

Absolutely false. Some BMW are luxury cars. Some BMW are business/premium trims, and some are fleet rental trims.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#344

Post by avereveard »

jliptzin wrote: post #332
ummonk wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The disgusting fumes are almost exclusively from diesel trucks and very old cars. Manufacturing affordable (no, the Model 3 is not affordable) new cars helps take old cars off the streets and make our neighborhoods cleaner.

Those are just more disgusting fumes, I prefer no fumes entering the cabin of my car and into my lungs from the car in front of me

Funny, most of the pollution of modern cars comes from tires and brakes. Tesla may remove particulates from brakes, but any mild hybrid+ does.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#345

Post by rodgerd »

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #117
tacLog wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors. I have never owned a car with blind spot monitoring. Do people really just rely on them completely? Even in dense urban environments with bikes around? Or is it more of a judgement call? Different perspectives on this would be nice. I h…

It's practially a trope how in sci-fi movies with flying futuristic cars, it's a demonstration of extreme competence for a character to demand "manual controls" to pilot the vehicle...like every normal driver does today. I expect that will become more and more real-world. Even today, most drivers don't know how to drive a manual transmission vehicle, much less how to double-clutch one without synchros or how to stop…

> much less how to double-clutch one without synchros

Yes, well, people don't generally know how to make a horse change directions either.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#346

Post by RA_Fisher »

chaxor wrote: post #249
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

Can you explain how Simpsons paradox applies here?

The groups aren’t segmented by freeway vs. non-freeway use, but it’s an important omitted lurking variable. After conditioning on the variable, the takeaway changes.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#347

Post by vel0city »

maxdo wrote: post #215
FireBeyond wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facts: Tesla was the first to introduce such wide range of safety features in every car they sold. Please itemize these "wide range of safety features" for us that other manufacturers do not have or did not have until Tesla innovated them. > They invest in own crash test facilities. Only Volvo is kind of on par. Audi owns one, for just one.

Sure, https://www.tesla.com/safety https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 Tesla roll out cars in generations. So just take a $40k Model 3/Y platform was introduced in 2017 and compare it with any car been introduced that year. My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. Tesla don't sell safety features…

Literally every safety feature listed on that site is on my 2017 Hyundai Santa Fe, which brand new was thousands of dollars less than a Model 3.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#348

Post by KennyBlanken »

contravariant wrote: post #138
gnicholas wrote: post #2

Underlying study is here. [1] Full disclosure, I co-wrote the piece for The Daily Beast [2] that originally suggested that Tesla's methodology was seriously flawed. I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. 1: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 2: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-exagge...

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

There are additional factors.

Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc.

If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#349

Post by waffle_maniac »

dmitriid wrote: post #303
oblio wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. #1 lesson of buying cars is: 1. Don't buy German cars if you don't have to (or if you buy them, never complain about the price of their optional equipment). The corollary is: 1". Buy Korean or Japanese cars.

Or buy Škoda which is usually "last year's VW with everything included, for a lower price" :)

It looks like most of their cars have ~110 horsepower? Seems weak.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#350

Post by infogulch »

Melatonic wrote: post #261
CSSer wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a car with adaptive cruise control and lane assist, and most of my morning commute (on days when I go into the office) is driven on the highway. Most of the time I don't turn it on because I'm in a self-perceived hurry to get to work, so I forget. You know what would be really nice? Something that detects when it's safe and reasonable to suggest turning on adaptive cruise control so I use it more. Maybe someth…

I would personally hate for that to be on but I can see your point. Maybe a simple hardware switch for on / off and adaptive cruise control turns on once you are over 65mph for more than 1 minute and will only adapt +-15mph total?

GP doesn't suggest having the car turn on cruise control on its own (nightmare!), but instead to remind the driver that this may be a good opportunity to switch it on themselves.
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