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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#31

Post by Xylakant »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#32

Post by pengaru »

rurp wrote: post #18
lordnacho wrote: post #3

Wow, adjusted for driver age the difference vanishes. That's quite an interesting observation, and it shows the importance of proper statistics. It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats, it's often only when someone takes the time to dig into it that we discover this kind of thing. I am not holding my breath waiting for the common consumer to understand statistical critical thinking though.…

> It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats Companies saying "trust us, we have the data to prove it" while keeping that data secret should be ignored. Especially if their CEO has a long history of blatant dishonesty! I'm most annoyed that people gave any weight to Tesla's safety statistics claims in the first place.

> I'm most annoyed that people gave any weight to Tesla's safety statistics claims in the first place.

TSLA stock consistently made gains for a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't be paying attention let alone putting their weight in anything Tesla related.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#33

Post by paxys »

Xylakant wrote: post #31
paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

Sure the worst drivers out there utilizing assist tech like autopilot would benefit everyone, but data shows that they aren't the ones spending money on fancy cars. My comment was about me making a decision for myself.

Plus in your hypothetical the autopilot can drive at least as well as me, which is also a big assumption and not something I believe with what I have seen so far.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#34

Post by IanDrake »

kadoban wrote: post #14
ProAm wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have taken a course in statistics you'll know its always possible to make the numbers looks favorable to your cause. It would take several unrelated blind third parties to do this correctly and no public company will ever let that happen, especially Tesla.

They should be forced to let that happen. It's crucial for public safety.

No post body was provided.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#35

Post by djanogo »

Xylakant wrote: post #31
paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

It can't be just any "average driver", they should be compared against "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#36

Post by tacLog »

gnicholas wrote: post #15
gameswithgo wrote: post #6

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elder…

> the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! Presumably drivers take over when it makes mistakes, which tilts the stats a bit. > When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. As a parent, I wonder about what safety tech I would let my kids use when learning to drive. I want to make sure they fully learn how to drive, which makes me think I shouldn't let them use too much semi-autonomous tech. At the sa…

> At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors.

I have never owned a car with blind spot monitoring. Do people really just rely on them completely? Even in dense urban environments with bikes around? Or is it more of a judgement call? Different perspectives on this would be nice.

I have never seen the little light on the mirrors fail to detect me while I am riding but I never trust a driver not to just turn right cutting me off anyways.

I am not trying to pass judgement just understand how these driver aids change the way people drive.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#37

Post by yrral »

gnicholas wrote: post #23
yrral wrote: post #12

How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up? I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

Good question! According to one study in LA, [1] men cause 60% of accidents. I do wonder, however, the extent to which this gap fades with age. Given that most Tesla owners are not super young, it might not make as much of a difference as the 60% number (assuming it is nationally representative) would indicate. 1: https://xtown.la/2019/12/12/women-drivers-maybe-we-need-more...

Note when looking at 40% vs 60% of accidents (assuming males and females drive the same amount) the % difference seems small, only 20%, but actually this means males cause 50% more accidents than females do (60/40=1.5).

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#38

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

sandworm101 wrote: post #20
jacquesm wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. That's because it's marketing, not science.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

It's not like Honda doesn't engage in puffery.

Most retailers make over-the-top claims regarding their products, including safety.

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-honda-fine-2015...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#39

Post by djanogo »

lordnacho wrote: post #3

Wow, adjusted for driver age the difference vanishes. That's quite an interesting observation, and it shows the importance of proper statistics. It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats, it's often only when someone takes the time to dig into it that we discover this kind of thing. I am not holding my breath waiting for the common consumer to understand statistical critical thinking though.…

They should adjust for car-age and price.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#40

Post by borski »

Someone1234 wrote: post #26
borski wrote: post #16

We need a startup that can test and correct dubious statistical claims, or verify good ones. I would definitely pay for that.

That would be cool, but companies are often not forthcoming with the raw data needed to do such analysis independently (particularly if it could make them look bad).

Sure, but would they be if they could be “independently verified” by a startup like this? It might be a PR win.
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