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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#251

Post by jmisavage »

Calavar wrote: post #171
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is one thing to note that humans regularly break the law. It is another thing to task people with programing a robot to break that law. I'm very sure that many people break the speed limit regularly. But I would never expect to get away with programing a car to break that limit. No sane person would ever tell an employee or customer that rolling stops are OK, not in writing. And 5.6mph isn't rolling. That's beyond…

> And 5.6mph isn't rolling Most cars idle at 5 to 6 mph, so any roll through a stop sign is likely to break the 5 mph mark. > Any cop watching an intersection would ticket this. Not sure where you live, but this is absolutely not the case where I am. I have only ever once heard of a traffic officer ticketing for this. On the other hand, I see cops watch on as people ignore "no turn on red" signs and let them get away…

I’ve gotten a ticket before for a rolling stop. It happens.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#252

Post by lelandfe »

aeternum wrote: post #213
sudosysgen wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are buying an expensive, new car, meaning higher income, meaning that those things are less likely : https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/article/46/6/721/129644

Keep in mind that this study could just mean that people in expensive cars with higher incomes are less likely to be arrested/stopped by police.

Hmm.. The underlying studies (Baum, 2000; Eensoo et al., 2005) that found links between socioeconomic status and DUI/DWI did so by comparing those arrested against a control group – which I believe should deal with that concern?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#253

Post by freediver »

As a Tesla driver, I do not trust the autopilot yet and think it is years away (if ever achievable) from level 5...

The reason this study has this outcome can be because of the survivorship bias - people are letting autopilot drive only in easiest road conditions where chance for something to go wrong is smaller to begin with.

I would have hard time imagining people are letting autopilot drive regularly in a tight, windy road (at night) or in snow, thus completely preventing those (frequent types of?) accidents from happening under autopilot.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#254

Post by gambiting »

maxdo wrote: post #215
FireBeyond wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facts: Tesla was the first to introduce such wide range of safety features in every car they sold. Please itemize these "wide range of safety features" for us that other manufacturers do not have or did not have until Tesla innovated them. > They invest in own crash test facilities. Only Volvo is kind of on par. Audi owns one, for just one.

Sure, https://www.tesla.com/safety https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 Tesla roll out cars in generations. So just take a $40k Model 3/Y platform was introduced in 2017 and compare it with any car been introduced that year. My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. Tesla don't sell safety features…

>> My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that.

That's an incredibly bad example, because in German brands you have to pay extra for basic safety features(famously in the new Polo you have to pay extra to have more than the basic 3 airbags, I don't even know how that's allowed). Look at a brand new Peugeot/Citroen/Kia/Hyundai and you will pay less than what a Model 3 costs and get just as many safety features. Yes, all the stuff that is optional in a BMW - but look outside of Audi/Merc/BMW/Volkswagen and you will find that this stuff is also completely standard.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#255

Post by tempnow987 »

TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #75
Natsu wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study says this: > An estimated 15% of injury crashes and 24% of property damage-only crashes are never reported to police (M. Davis and Company, Inc., 2015), while9% of injury crashes and 24% of property damage-only crashes are reported but not logged (Blincoe et al., 2015). Even with robust data, establishing the statistical significance of automated vehicle safety can be expensive. Kalra and Paddock (2016)demo…

Why would injury crashes go unreported?

After college I lived with roommates for a while. One went on a joyride of sorts and damaged a bunch of parking meters, crashed and injured themselves. They had a friend drive them home and repaired the vehicle with no reporting.

In some cities currently even if you want to have police respond to a traffic accident, you'd need to wait a VERY long time - they will tell you that unless you need EMS to try and get a safe spot and call for a tow. Some folks aren't willing to wait hours for police to show up to do what, take a report?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#256

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

jlmorton wrote: post #205
sandworm101 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

> This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. It's a driving profile which must be turned on that implements behavior extremely common among the driving public. My Honda with Traffic Sign Recognition and adaptive cruise control lets me set the speed above the speed limit, too. Our traffic laws are in many ways ambiguous, such that even the police office…

The driving public knows when it can't take such calculated risks. Does the ML classifier know what it isn't seeing?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#257

Post by chemengds »

chaxor wrote: post #249
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

Can you explain how Simpsons paradox applies here?

It's more traditional sampling bias than Simpsons paradox

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#258

Post by hunterb123 »

kevingadd wrote: post #87
garbageT wrote: post #43

Pre-print research based off of unpublished paper/dataset and “personal correspondence” makes this questionable. Why are we sharing this before knowledgeable and relevant reviewers get a hold it? I’ll wait for the peer-reviewed version.

So Tesla marketing gets the benefit of the doubt, but research doesn't?

That was never said. GP could doubt both.

I don't think his request is out of the ordinary here:

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#259

Post by RyEgswuCsn »

chaxor wrote: post #249
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

Can you explain how Simpsons paradox applies here?

The performance appears to be superior due to a large proportion of the driving is done on easy environment.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#260

Post by runarberg »

buran77 wrote: post #141
spywaregorilla wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statistics are there to read however, and suggest your reasoning is not correct. Case A: Non Tesla Human drives 999 easy miles and 1 hard mile Case B: Autopilot drives 999 easy miles, and human drives 1 hard mile If the effect size of the hard mile is so large that its skewing the statistics, you would expect the Telsa human driver to have a horrendous per mile accident rate relative to the non tesla human driver…

Student drivers (with an instructor in the car, and secondary controls) have very few accidents, if any, not because of their safety record but because every mistake is saved by the instructor. A car can be considered as driving "safer than a human" when it can match the average human in any conditions the average human drives. Everything else is just squinting at the data and choosing an interpretation that fits you…

> Student drivers (with an instructor in the car, and secondary controls) have very few accidents [...] because every mistake is saved by the instructor

Is that the only reason? I suspect that many (most) student drivers are also in general more alert, drive slower, and follow each rule/guideline to an extreme. If they don’t the instructor will probably end the lesson and remove a dangerous driver of the road.

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