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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#81

Post by rightbyte »

Xylakant wrote: post #31
paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

No.

I'm not going to boast about how good of a driver I am (I am!!), but lets say I am a median driver. I would want a FSD to be better than a median driver. Not the average crash/mile stats that include all kinds of long tail idiots doing the most damage.

    * ... alcohol-impaired driving crashes, accounting for 28% of all traffic-related deaths in the United States.
    
    * Drugs other than alcohol (legal and illegal) are involved in about 16% of motor vehicle crashes.
https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/impaired_driving/im...

So 44% intoxicated to some degree (unless the stats overlap). That number is not even including reckless drivers not driving under influence, teenagers that just got the license, bad health elderly etc.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#82

Post by mrtksn »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #76
mrtksn wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I remember correctly, they also cover the easy part of the road and make the human take over at tricky situations. So at the end of the day, you have spotless records for the autopilot that was driving many many miles on the straight line and humans having accidents at short intersections or construction sites. This translates into very favorable numbers for autopilot when presented as accidents per miles driven.

If it were the case that autopilot was benefiting from dumping all of the difficult parts on the humans, you would expect to see much higher than average rates of accidents per mile on the human driven parts, because they're only getting the hard parts. This tends not to be true, so I'm doubting it's a real effect.

Humans don’t disengage and let the machines handle the situation but machines do it all the time. Do the machines disengage at tricky situations or straight lines?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#83

Post by sandworm101 »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #72
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is one thing to note that humans regularly break the law. It is another thing to task people with programing a robot to break that law. I'm very sure that many people break the speed limit regularly. But I would never expect to get away with programing a car to break that limit. No sane person would ever tell an employee or customer that rolling stops are OK, not in writing. And 5.6mph isn't rolling. That's beyond…

I fully support the noble notions and idealistic ideas. But let's make it real, and let's ask a question about the real world: Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? If so, those cars will inherently be a danger to life and limb. I don't care about any self-righteous driver who indicates houghtily " I drive speed limit on…

Yes. For a company to program illegality into a product opens them up to untold liability. Normal car companies program their speedometers to read slightly high (5% ish). This keeps them from being into lawsuits by people who claim that an inaccurate speedometer contributed to the severity of a crash. Any car company who programs a car to drive faster than the limit will be either liable or have to pay lawyers in every crash involving such cars. Even if their car doesn't cause the crash, the fact that it was speeding will contribute to the severity of the accident. It would be like programing a robotic bartender to serve kids who are underage but look old enough to pass for 21. Corporate lunacy.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#84

Post by obmelvin »

djanogo wrote: post #35
Xylakant wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

It can't be just any "average driver", they should be compared against "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car.

If you are speaking about the safety features in a new car, then I won't disagree. However, if you are implying that those with a nice new car are somehow better drivers, more attentive drivers, or care more about their car then I would highly disagree. As someone who purchased a new car last year, and does greatly care about it, I'm routinely shocked by people and their clear disregard for their own vehicle. Reckless driving, texting while not even attempting to look, and the way people park their cars so close to you that they can't even get out* have all shocked me now that I'm paying more attention.

* I have even stared at this guy struggling to get out of his fancy Jeep who opened his door into my car. I know this anecdotal, but all it takes is a few counter examples to show that car price etc does not have a super high correlation to how careful & considerate you are.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#85

Post by kevingadd »

caditinpiscinam wrote: post #70

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

Regulation hasn't caught up with the technology, and even when regulation exists regulators are very slow to enforce it. Uber and Lyft were various degrees of blatantly illegal in many places they operated, but it took regulators years to actually do anything about it and at that point they were so well-established that it rarely made sense to actually punish them. It's a reliable bet to make if you've got investor millions to spend on lawyers and lobbyists.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#86

Post by aurelianito »

yumraj wrote: post #67
sandworm101 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

> And because it's Tesla, not Honda. And because it’s Elon Musk, not some ethical CEO

Ethical CEO is an oxímoron.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#87

Post by kevingadd »

garbageT wrote: post #43

Pre-print research based off of unpublished paper/dataset and “personal correspondence” makes this questionable. Why are we sharing this before knowledgeable and relevant reviewers get a hold it? I’ll wait for the peer-reviewed version.

So Tesla marketing gets the benefit of the doubt, but research doesn't?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#88

Post by aspenmayer »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #72
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is one thing to note that humans regularly break the law. It is another thing to task people with programing a robot to break that law. I'm very sure that many people break the speed limit regularly. But I would never expect to get away with programing a car to break that limit. No sane person would ever tell an employee or customer that rolling stops are OK, not in writing. And 5.6mph isn't rolling. That's beyond…

I fully support the noble notions and idealistic ideas. But let's make it real, and let's ask a question about the real world: Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? If so, those cars will inherently be a danger to life and limb. I don't care about any self-righteous driver who indicates houghtily " I drive speed limit on…

> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways?

It’s already against road rules to stay in the passing lane when cars behind wish to pass, regardless of the speed limit, or if you’re already driving at it. If cars behind desire to overtake, give way. This is already codified. No need to blame the cars or the self-driving tech. It’s the human driver who bears responsibility for what the car does or doesn’t do, as are the only ones able to countermand the autopilot. Blaming Tesla for any of that seems like dogpiling and behind the point.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#89

Post by LeoPanthera »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #62

How is this still front page? Somebody sleeping? In case you missed them, there have been 5 tesla stories nuked from the front page today: 'Self driving' Tesla fails miserably on the streets of South Boston 30 points 22 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30173566 Tesla Australia admits its sales figures were wrong 39 points 14 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30176635 Tesla drivers report a su…

There are valid criticisms of Tesla, this normalized data story is probably one of them, but the fans and anti-fans of Tesla are so equally rabid that it is nearly impossible to have a rational conversation about it.

Expressing a view in either direction results in an instant pile-on of trolls and flames.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#90

Post by contravariant »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #62

How is this still front page? Somebody sleeping? In case you missed them, there have been 5 tesla stories nuked from the front page today: 'Self driving' Tesla fails miserably on the streets of South Boston 30 points 22 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30173566 Tesla Australia admits its sales figures were wrong 39 points 14 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30176635 Tesla drivers report a su…

Lack of the word 'Tesla' in the title probably does it. As well as not tripping the flame war detector probably. We'll see how this thread fares.
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