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The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

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Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#91

Post by argsv »

cs702 wrote: post #86
pjc50 wrote: post #20

This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…

> The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes is smiling. In exchange for that we've got only 5%ish inflation, driven partly by a newly-tight labour market in which people can actually negotiate incomes upward, and partly by a big spike in natural gas prices? I would absolutely t…

I would take inflation that can be managed over the alternative that could have happened had the government not intervened. However and if I understood things correctly, it appears that banks, financial entities and ultra rich individuals got money absolutely for free; no strings attached. The rest of the population got stimulus checks , asset prices appreciation followed by inflation which will eventually eat away any appreciation at best if not do more damage. I don’t think society will appreciate this deal in the long run. Desperate politicians and ideologues will exploit this imbalance.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#92

Post by altdataseller »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #52
altdataseller wrote: post #10

Apple just had a very good earnings report a couple days ago, and showed iPhone demand hasn’t slowed down at all.

The fed is still pumping in money till march, we'll probably have to wait till the earnings of Q2/Q3 to see if there's a slow down.

What are you talking about? Stimulus checks have stopped.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#93

Post by galangalalgol »

lvl100 wrote: post #70
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem is - there are sooooo many things that need done in this country. I am not sure why everyone thinks it is cruel and unusual punishment to ask people to do some of those things that need done (burying power lines in cities, as one example) in exchange for money. Why is it so barbaric to give people a job? Theoretically, there are plenty of low-skilled workers that could've been trained to do needed skilled…

Agreed. We desperately need a few large scale public projects. But the country (US) is so divided that no one’s going to agree to anything that selectively benefits one region over another.

Our large scale public projects always seem to end up being villified due to massive overuns, nepotism, embezzlement, and at best mismanagement. It typically benefits one small area too. If we want public opinion to change on these efforts, we need to change the track record to build trust for bigger and bigger projects.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#94

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

kwertyoowiyop wrote: post #88
nebula8804 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

Every generation does have this fear. I was sure outsourcing would seriously damage Silicon Valley…in 1990.

Outsourcing did damage silicon valley. Do you see Apple still building Macs there? Or any chips being built there anymore? Silicon valley wasn't always the land of ad-based companies you know, it was silicon. That's mostly offshored now with the current version being a shadow of its former self.

Do you think all those employees building Macs and chips managed to get into SW development before their jobs were offshored?

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#95

Post by ziml77 »

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #45

Interesting, everyone is seeing different reasons here. The link doesn't mention it, now the guardian says, that it's the looming danger of war in Europe: "“Dealers are worried about the prospect of a war in eastern Europe, as the human and economic cost would be huge. Some central European economies, like Germany, are heavily dependent on energy from Russia, and should a war break out, it’s a possibility those energ…

Everyone has their own reasons because people are trying to simplify things down to just a couple of variables. The problem is that there are many variables all tied to each other in complex ways which just can't be simplified that much. You can't just look at one action, no matter how large, and claim that it was bad because of a problem it caused. The relations between all the variables means that a different action or inaction may have ended in the same problem coming about via an alternate path of cause and effect.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#96

Post by treis »

swagatkonchada wrote: post #53
pjc50 wrote: post #20

This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…

inflation is 7%ish, not 5%ish. but generally translates to much higher cost of living increases for the middle class

I don't really buy inflation at 7%. If you drill into the numbers it's mostly (1) energy prices returning to pre-covid levels and (2) huge increases in new & used cars due to chip shortages. The rest of the numbers are a more pedestrian 2-4%

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#97

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

lvl100 wrote: post #35
boboche wrote: post #15

Stopped reading at “tesla is a car company”. When I read that, it shows how little research has been done and not trusting anything else. Hate and downvote all you want, anyone who did basic research on the company, IP, and execution knows how bad that narrative will age. Its not about loving or hating Elon, its simple business. While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is over…

OK, but you realize you can say that about all the big techs now? Google is not an ad company. It’s really an “AI” company with far more valuable R&D. Same with Facebook. If we are looking at tech companies purely from research assets accrued, I have to say Facebook is a bargain here. And even more so with Google. Tesla on the other hand is more of a marketing company. Their R&D spend does not match all the hype. If…

>Google is not an ad company. It’s really an “AI” company with far more valuable R&D.Same with Facebook.

And which AI products do Google and Facebook sell to their customers for revenue?

Google and Facebook are ad companies plain and simple and invest into AI R&D to further improve their ad targeting capabilities.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#98

Post by nebula8804 »

amcoastal wrote: post #41
nebula8804 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

While I had hoped Bernie would have been elected, at this point I don't think much would have changed if Bernie had been president. If anything, it probably would've made Joe Manchin dig his heels in even further. At this point I think they know 2022 is gone, and are aiming for a fighting chance in 2024. The only real difference between a president bernie and a president biden, is that in 2023 and 2024, leading up to…

>While I had hoped Bernie would have been elected, at this point I don't think much would have changed if Bernie had been president. If anything, it probably would've made Joe Manchin dig his heels in even further.

I respectfully disagree. Did you know that in 2016 in the Democratic primary in West Virginia Bernie won all 55 counties and in one country Hillary Clinton finished in third place? West Virginia has an extremely strong history in fighting for workers rights. The whole term 'redneck' came from the red bandanas the coal miners used to wear when protesting for better working conditions.

Bernie was very clear on how he would handle Joe Manchin: He would go into WV in every county and publicly hold rallies showing the state how much Manchin is holding them back from the things that they want. He would take every opportunity to embarrass and pressure Manchin. Finally, he and Biden have one more angle. Manchin's daughter is the one behind the whole Epipen price gouging scandal. There is plenty to go after her with. That would certainly light a fire under his rear end. Biden has not even tried any real pressure and for that is all on him.

>MO, the only good thing that was ever going to come from these 4 years was not having Trump as president, and possibly an EO reducing student debt and an EO rescheduling marijuana.

That is enough to rally the base and get them fired up and work to expand on the purple states to gain seats. He blew a perfect opportunity.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#99

Post by nebula8804 »

iso1631 wrote: post #64
nebula8804 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

> I should have seen what happened to Jeremy Corybn in the UK and treated it as a canary in the coal mine. Brexit was a canary for Trump but that was also ignored Certain groups have used the UK to refine their methods (cambridge analytica etc) to use on the big prize.

Yes but people can be forgiven for not seeing how Brexit would have affected how the US turned out. Something like that had not happened in this current generation's memory.

>Certain groups have used the UK to refine their methods (cambridge analytica etc) to use on the big prize.

We like to think they are wildly different from each other. Turns out the two countries are still very similar in values and mentality.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#100

Post by nebula8804 »

kwertyoowiyop wrote: post #88
nebula8804 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

Every generation does have this fear. I was sure outsourcing would seriously damage Silicon Valley…in 1990.

As a child of the 90s, my views are quite skewed but it seems like such a different era. It was the era of "Hackers' and the Matrix. When you could actually afford some decent property in the valley still. When it wasn't a complete homeless dump(or at least as much as it is now). Every computer you bought was seriously much better than the last. But yeah, my late father did have the concern of outsourcing to India in the mid 2000s. That was back when it was thought that India was the next superpower before China just raced past them.

I am reminded by this presentation I saw(and was shown to teachers all around the country) in the early to mid 2000s.:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdTOFkhaplo

Its crazy just thinking back to those times.

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