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The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

therossreport.substack.com

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Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#41

Post by amcoastal »

nebula8804 wrote: post #18
thrown_22 wrote: post #7

I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

While I had hoped Bernie would have been elected, at this point I don't think much would have changed if Bernie had been president. If anything, it probably would've made Joe Manchin dig his heels in even further.

At this point I think they know 2022 is gone, and are aiming for a fighting chance in 2024. The only real difference between a president bernie and a president biden, is that in 2023 and 2024, leading up to the election, when the republican congress refuses to do anything, Bernie would sign EOs that would help people, and Biden just MIGHT sign them (being able to use the excuse that republicans wont work with him to do it).

IMO, the only good thing that was ever going to come from these 4 years was not having Trump as president, and possibly an EO reducing student debt and an EO rescheduling marijuana. Nothing else progressive was going to happen even with a president Bernie. And those two EOS might still happen from Biden, but who really knows.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#42

Post by [deleted] »

boboche wrote: post #15

Stopped reading at “tesla is a car company”. When I read that, it shows how little research has been done and not trusting anything else. Hate and downvote all you want, anyone who did basic research on the company, IP, and execution knows how bad that narrative will age. Its not about loving or hating Elon, its simple business. While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is over…

[deleted]

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#43

Post by giantg2 »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #31
sqqqqrly wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the "reason for doing this" was a conspiracy to discredit the left and Polosi, Schumer, Biden, etc are all conspirators? Blah!

I don't think it's actually a conspiracy or plan in that way, but Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden are definitely greatly concerned with discrediting the ideologies and plans of those further to the left than them.

Which ideologies and plans are those?

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#44

Post by streamofdigits »

> Mr. Market extrapolated a one-time demand surge into the indefinite future

Mr. Market is apparently a total idiot and can't distinguish infinity from unity.

Somehow all these Zero Hedge wanabee's would be more credible if they could predict some event, on the basis of their favorite cumulated "idiocy" metric. Expressed in observable outcomes, that would come to pass within a defined period.

Its called falsifiability [0]. Otherwise its a lot of hyperventilation, angst and/or hidden political agendas

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#45

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

Interesting, everyone is seeing different reasons here. The link doesn't mention it, now the guardian says, that it's the looming danger of war in Europe: "“Dealers are worried about the prospect of a war in eastern Europe, as the human and economic cost would be huge. Some central European economies, like Germany, are heavily dependent on energy from Russia, and should a war break out, it’s a possibility those energy supply lines would be cut, which would cripple economic output in the EU,” David Madden, a market analyst at Equiti Capital, told Reuters."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/24/us-stock-ma...

It seems as if it is hard to trust any one source, when it comes to macroeconomics; i mean there are a lot of biases, and everyone seems to be looking for confirmation of his own world view.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#46

Post by yarky »

pjc50 wrote: post #20

This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…

> to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy.

What makes you think that temporary measures will avoid a permanent impact on the economy ? These measures only delayed the impact.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#47

Post by lvl100 »

pjc50 wrote: post #20

This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…

I agree they had to spend the money to prevent a depression. I don’t think anyone is here contesting the amount of money unleashed. However, I am really disappointed with where that money went. It went into “non-productive” assets and activities.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#48

Post by dijonman2 »

lvl100 wrote: post #47
pjc50 wrote: post #20

This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…

I agree they had to spend the money to prevent a depression. I don’t think anyone is here contesting the amount of money unleashed. However, I am really disappointed with where that money went. It went into “non-productive” assets and activities.

I contest the amount: it was excessive.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#49

Post by snek_case »

MisterSandman wrote: post #26
boboche wrote: post #15

Stopped reading at “tesla is a car company”. When I read that, it shows how little research has been done and not trusting anything else. Hate and downvote all you want, anyone who did basic research on the company, IP, and execution knows how bad that narrative will age. Its not about loving or hating Elon, its simple business. While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is over…

I agree with everything else you said except your first sentence. Saying that Tesla is a car company isn't untrue and there's no reason for you to have such a visceral reaction to it. Tesla has made no indication that they'd ever license their self-driving or sensor tech to others. Pretty much every other project Tesla has suggested is vaporware. The one and only thing they'll successfully produce and launch, possibl…

Elon Musk has stated at least twice that they would be willing to license FSD to others.

Grid energy storage is a successful and growing business segment. It doesn't yet have the scale of the car business but to call it vaporware is dishonest.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#50

Post by dataminer »

There is a lot of talk about inflation. But isn’t inflation most of the time a temporary phenomenon, because productivity and innovation catches up. When there is inflation its the perfect time for people and businesses to pivot to disruptive technologies and products.

For example, in late 2000s oil went up as high as $150 per barrel, gas was super expensive. People started talking about electric cars and renewable energy, companies like Tesla took advantage of that. Also fracking started coming online after that period and oil became relatively cheaper over a long period.

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