Maybe. But it could equally just go up again next month. Nobody can predict the future of the stock market reliably.
The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
61–70 of 149 posts
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#62I think it’s naive to say that a couple stimulus checks and some unemployment is responsible for high consumer spending.
I think it's naive to say that 6 TRILLION dollars of stimulus and a sharp rise in inflation that followed it is unrelated
>I think it's naive to say that 6 TRILLION dollars of stimulus and a sharp rise in inflation that followed it is unrelated
$850 billion was distributed to Americans via stimulus checks (over a year, amounting to aboutn $266/month).
The remainder (5 TRILLION) was distributed to corporations and the Feds plunge protection team.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/corona...
...
Billions more went to the Federal Reserve to help stabilize markets, ...Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#63This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…
Unemployment would have fallen regardless, because the April 2020 spike was 100% triggered by politicians ruling activity restrictions As soon as the restrictions were lifted, companies started hiring again It was never ever ever a demand problem, only of supply. Unfortunately, people are too ideological and blind to diagnose issues correctly.
Your assertion assumes that demand would not have contracted in April 2020 absent government intervention, which seems suspect. Unless you believe no one would have adopted any pandemic precautions absent activity restrictions, thereby averting any demand drop in, say, the entertainment and hospitality sectors.
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#64I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…
>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…
> I should have seen what happened to Jeremy Corybn in the UK and treated it as a canary in the coal mine.
Brexit was a canary for Trump but that was also ignored
Certain groups have used the UK to refine their methods (cambridge analytica etc) to use on the big prize.
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#65This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…
inflation is 7%ish, not 5%ish. but generally translates to much higher cost of living increases for the middle class
And a large drop in the real value of outstanding debts, which is great for the mortgage-holding, non-credit-extending middle class
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree they had to spend the money to prevent a depression. I don’t think anyone is here contesting the amount of money unleashed. However, I am really disappointed with where that money went. It went into “non-productive” assets and activities.
I’m confused what you mean by non-productive in this sense. In my country, the vast majority of aid money was in the form of massive “loans” to companies that were later forgiven presumably to avoid them going under/bankrupt.
A lot of money in the US went to businesses through the PPP and similar programs. That was mostly a good thing as far as keeping businesses from closing or laying off workers. But I think pumping up non-productive assets was the second-order effect, where tons of stimulus money that people didn’t need immediately got dumped into speculative stocks, real estate, etc. the alternative would have been keeping it in savings accounts earning 0.01% while you saw all your friends “getting rich” YOLOing on meme stocks.
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#67This is missing a very important graph, unemployment. Here's an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993 And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes i…
I agree they had to spend the money to prevent a depression. I don’t think anyone is here contesting the amount of money unleashed. However, I am really disappointed with where that money went. It went into “non-productive” assets and activities.
My problem is - there are sooooo many things that need done in this country.
I am not sure why everyone thinks it is cruel and unusual punishment to ask people to do some of those things that need done (burying power lines in cities, as one example) in exchange for money.
Why is it so barbaric to give people a job? Theoretically, there are plenty of low-skilled workers that could've been trained to do needed skilled work during this time - instead of waiting 3 months for low-skilled labor demand to pick back up.
Now - for the rest of their lives - they could be high skilled laborers. Instead, we paid people to just wait.
I agree that it was better than doing nothing.
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#68Stopped reading at “tesla is a car company”. When I read that, it shows how little research has been done and not trusting anything else. Hate and downvote all you want, anyone who did basic research on the company, IP, and execution knows how bad that narrative will age. Its not about loving or hating Elon, its simple business. While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is over…
Agreed. I have some good exposure to Tesla, but I would gladly increase it if they drop further.
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unemployment would have fallen regardless, because the April 2020 spike was 100% triggered by politicians ruling activity restrictions As soon as the restrictions were lifted, companies started hiring again It was never ever ever a demand problem, only of supply. Unfortunately, people are too ideological and blind to diagnose issues correctly.
Your assertion assumes that demand would not have contracted in April 2020 absent government intervention, which seems suspect. Unless you believe no one would have adopted any pandemic precautions absent activity restrictions, thereby averting any demand drop in, say, the entertainment and hospitality sectors.
Demand reflects consumption opportunities
People kept receiving salaries, and unemployment benefits. So financial position and income of families was always strong
There's no precautionary savings cycle.. People engaged in financial risk taking by buying houses like never before
Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree they had to spend the money to prevent a depression. I don’t think anyone is here contesting the amount of money unleashed. However, I am really disappointed with where that money went. It went into “non-productive” assets and activities.
My problem is - there are sooooo many things that need done in this country. I am not sure why everyone thinks it is cruel and unusual punishment to ask people to do some of those things that need done (burying power lines in cities, as one example) in exchange for money. Why is it so barbaric to give people a job? Theoretically, there are plenty of low-skilled workers that could've been trained to do needed skilled…
Agreed. We desperately need a few large scale public projects. But the country (US) is so divided that no one’s going to agree to anything that selectively benefits one region over another.