11–20 of 149 posts
I think it’s naive to say that a couple stimulus checks and some unemployment is responsible for high consumer spending.
>>> a couple stimulus checks You might want to take at the numbers involved (this is just the US, other countries also had huge packages): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rescue_Plan_Act_of_20... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CARES_Act
I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…
This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was.
Further, the people staying at home were often in the service sector: retail, restaurants, etc.
Even when the restrictions were lifted a bit, you can't simply take random people who were doing one job and throw them onto a construction site and expect them to be useful (never mind productive/efficient). The number of companies and people available at any given time to do this is at any particular instant of time is finite, and most were probably on a contract. Certainly over time people can shift careers, but that is not instantaneous change.
Depending on the "infrastructure" you want to do/build, you need lead time to actually design what you want to build, do surveys, get permits, and order materials. And because of global supply chain issues, a lot of materials were in short supply: lumber being the most publicized, but shipping pallets were an issue as well (there was a good Odd Lots podcast episode on them), as were the obscure things such as truss plates.
Maintaining infrastructure is a great idea, but you don't "just" do it. Outside of 'simply' tarmac repaving the surface of a road, most everything else takes a few months of planning.
I think it’s naive to say that a couple stimulus checks and some unemployment is responsible for high consumer spending.
"Tesla will be reporting earnings just as this article goes to publication today. But in my view, any “fundamental” news coming from Tesla’s earnings is rather meaningless. Why? Because we’re talking about a company completely divorced from any semblance of fundamental value."
Author: complains that investors are ignoring fundamentals
Also Author: ignores fundamentals
While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is overvalued looking stricly at P/E, they will survive a recession blow much better than a lot of companies because of their cash balance, margings, and operationnal excellence. Drops are expected and serious investors will see this as a unique buying opportunity. It could go down 90% for all I care, I would buy more shares.
If you are in the market for day trading, get out for a while because at times like this you will mostly get burned unless you really know what you are doing.
If you are in the long run, did your research, you shouldn’t sweat at reading all this doomsday material vs. any stocks you own. its as bad as bulls saying tesla will reach 5000 by the end of the year.
I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…
> Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Further, the people staying at home were often in the serv…
This started out interesting but strayed into rant territory pretty quickly. "Tesla will be reporting earnings just as this article goes to publication today. But in my view, any “fundamental” news coming from Tesla’s earnings is rather meaningless. Why? Because we’re talking about a company completely divorced from any semblance of fundamental value." Author: complains that investors are ignoring fundamentals Also A…
I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…
You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extinguish the rise of progressivism when the playbook is out in the open? They are probably 10 steps ahead of any populist movement. The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. They say its in the cusp of happening again. Yes that could happen again but with the rise of technology and big data, I can't possibly believe that the capitalist class hasn't used this ability to simulate every probable outcome to counteract this.
I am reminded of the excitement I was feeling in the run up to Bernie almost clinching the presidential nomination. His campaign was firing on all cylinders and was just destroying everyone else in the race. I got a false sense of victory when I took seriously the crying that all the mainstream media pundits started to do after his stunning victory in Nevada. It was all a ruse in the end. At the last second before Super Tuesday (the day that would have cemented Sanders victory) the Democratic leadership(Obama and others) made a deal with Klobuchar and Buttigieg to drop out and side with Biden in a move that left the Sanders campaign with no time left to recover. I saw things like Universal Healthcare, stopping the MIC and other progressive goals literally crumble in my hands after that day. Looking back, I should have seen what happened to Jeremy Corybn in the UK and treated it as a canary in the coal mine. Now with Biden having done absolutely less than nothing, I feel as if at least half of the Millenial generation and some of Gen Z has been completely written off at this point. The oldest in this cohort is turning forty and there is no way for them to make up for lost gains in this corrupt rotten scenario.
I'm really scared about the future. They are now gunning for the last stable career in the US (software engineering/IT) and while I am in my 30s and been in the industry for ~10 years now, I can't be reasonably sure that I can make it to the finish line of retirement without this career disappearing or being severely curtailed by automation/outsourcing/etc. I guess every generation has this fear.
I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…
> Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Further, the people staying at home were often in the serv…
Yes, and? All it would have taken was to call them vital workers, or whatever the local equivalent was, and they could have kept working. That was a political decision and covid still spread among vital workers. Adding construction would have changed very little in the grand scheme of things.
As for the rest building isn't software design. Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster. If nothing else the real tradies would appreciate having a gofer each.
And its not-quite-mirror, labor force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
The purpose of stimulus was to prevent those from looking even worse and causing more permanent damage to the economy. In that regard it's been a huge success; somewhere above, Keynes is smiling. In exchange for that we've got only 5%ish inflation, driven partly by a newly-tight labour market in which people can actually negotiate incomes upward, and partly by a big spike in natural gas prices? I would absolutely take it. (Roughly the same pattern is seen in the UK, and most of Europe; I'm not sure how well it applies to emerging economies)
There are two standard remedies for inflation: monetary tightening (raise interest rates) and fiscal tightening (raise taxes). Both of those operate on inflation by pushing unemployment back up and reducing the amount of money chasing goods. Both are eminently feasible if action is needed against inflation.