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The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

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Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#471

Post by cwkoss »

sleepingadmin wrote: post #262

Why is the central bank inflation target typically 2%? Well if you target 0% and any actual result below 0% happens, that's deflation which is a disaster for economies. If inflation is say 10%. Maximum employment is near certainly impossible. Debt will be expensive and the economy crawls to a halt. Who wants to pay 10% interest on their student debt? So where in between do you have a good price stability? It tends to…

Is -0.1% deflation really that disastrous for economies? Is it really worse than 10% inflation?

I've never experienced it, so can't speak too authoritatively, but it kind of feels like accepted wisdom in the economic academia: so it isn't questioned - but a lot of economics is propaganda for the powerful, IMO - would minor deflation really hurt the common man significantly? Or would it mostly just punish the rich and powerful who are extremely leveraged?

> Who wants to pay 10% interest on their student debt?

Private student debt lenders already can and do charge in excess of 10% (which seems borderline criminal to me)

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#472

Post by gruez »

tomrod wrote: post #457
wonderwonder wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also they have to account for the ever increasing bonuses to the c-suite. See Chipotle. "While Chipotle attributes raising menu prices to the growing price of labor, some analysts point to high CEO compensation as another factor. In 2020 CEO Brian Niccol took home $38 million, $1.24 million of which was his base salary. The rest was made up of other incentives and an annual bonus." https://www.businessinsider.com/chi…

As a thought exercise, what is that comp averaged by the number of Chipotle salads made? In 2010, they sold ~750k per day, or ~273.75M. So that CEO bonus costs ~$0.13 per salad sold. I'm not sure of the rest of the comp required for the C-Suite, but that seems like a lot. I doubt the CEO's value is irreplaceable. [0] https://www.laweekly.com/fast-food-using-slow-food-talking-w...

>So that CEO bonus costs ~$0.13 per salad sold. [...] but that seems like a lot. I doubt the CEO's value is irreplaceable.

The flaw in this analysis is that you think chipotle only sells salads. They obviously don't. At least based off my experience most people order burritos/bowls, not salads.

Here's my analysis: per wikipedia, chipotle has revenue of $5.586 billion in 2019. If we divide CEO's salary by that, we arrive at 0.68 cents per dollar of revenue. According to wikipedia, chipotle doesn't franchise, so we can assume that's all food revenue. Assuming a salad that costs $10, that's 6.8 cents of CEO comp per salad sold.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#473

Post by giantg2 »

loeg wrote: post #287
rootusrootus wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I got about a 4.5% value cut this year. I have not done the math, but I would not be surprised to see this is true for me. Certainly feels like it. I do not hate my current job, and I loathe interviewing, but I feel like I will need to jump soon just so I can push the reset button and get my compensation to keep up with inflation lately.

giantg2 is relentlessly pessimistic and negative about their job and job prospects. They say much the same things in every thread about employment.

I suck at life, but my comments are pertinent to the topics and vary by the specifics of the article/thread.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#474

Post by LdSGSgvupDV »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #397
sleepingadmin wrote: post #262

Why is the central bank inflation target typically 2%? Well if you target 0% and any actual result below 0% happens, that's deflation which is a disaster for economies. If inflation is say 10%. Maximum employment is near certainly impossible. Debt will be expensive and the economy crawls to a halt. Who wants to pay 10% interest on their student debt? So where in between do you have a good price stability? It tends to…

> The USA is at 7% inflation. This means the central bank is not doing their job. Is it absolutely clear at this point that monetary policy is to blame? It seems to me that supply-chain issues could still be a major factor.

If I remember correctly, QE was doubled between end of 2020 and 2021. How many proportion of inflation is contributed by QE?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#475

Post by rsanek »

carapace wrote: post #435
curiousllama wrote: post #207

> But there are growing fears of a wage-price spiral in which workers, seeing rising prices, demand higher pay — and companies, having to pay their workers more, start charging higher prices. These higher prices lead workers to demand even higher pay, leading companies to charge higher prices, and so on. It's the inflationary cycle of nightmares. Can someone explain to me how this works? I'd assume wages to prices ar…

> Can someone explain to me how this works? It doesn't work. Labor is a tiny fraction of the total cost of most products. We could double wages at the low end ($30 minimum wage) and not affect inflation significantly.

Source? In particular for restaurants and other businesses that rely on service jobs, I've typically read the opposite.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#476

Post by vwcx »

dfxm12 wrote: post #120
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinking people are just walking out of their jobs Yes, I think this is driven by corporate friendly mainstream media to mostly drum up for support for more corporate welfare while simultaneously painting Americans as lazy and unde…

"Yes, I think this is driven by corporate friendly mainstream media to mostly drum up for support for more corporate welfare while simultaneously painting Americans as lazy and undeserving of welfare themselves."

I think you are overindexing on the corporate-media outlet connection and ignoring how simple it is for a journalist to write a trend piece from personal anecdotes. All it takes is three friends of a journalist to resign before said journalist feels like this is a 'nationwide trend'.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#477

Post by TearsInTheRain »

ekidd wrote: post #416
dboreham wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because everyone was given free money which they spent on things, driving prices up.

Is increased buying power the actual cause of inflation? Or is it disruption in China? Or is it executives choosing to take profits because they can (for some particular reason)? What evidence could be used to distinguish between the various possibilities? I don't actually know, and I'm curious.

Im sure its a multitude of factors but it is definitely the increase spending due to government intervention. Aggregate demand is several years above trend.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#478

Post by vwcx »

bachmeier wrote: post #27
duxup wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm inclined to agree that some folks who stayed home (by choice or not) found that ... it wasn't that bad and doing so to find something else probably seems easier than it was before. My wife is possibly taking a leave to care for her father ... she's thinking a lot about if she wants to go back. If she wasn't taking a leave that first step / time might not be there to decide to do something else.

> I'm inclined to agree that some folks who stayed home (by choice or not) found that ... it wasn't that bad and doing so to find something else probably seems easier than it was before. There's this, but let's not forget that the S&P 500 is up about 40% relative to its pre-pandemic peak, so retirement accounts have been growing really fast. Staying home suddenly became an option for many. There were already concerns…

The stock market is an excellent point. Feels like there is lots of under-indexing (no pun intended) for the sentiment associated with 40% passive growth in one's retirement account since the start of the pandemic.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#479

Post by tomrod »

gruez wrote: post #472
tomrod wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a thought exercise, what is that comp averaged by the number of Chipotle salads made? In 2010, they sold ~750k per day, or ~273.75M. So that CEO bonus costs ~$0.13 per salad sold. I'm not sure of the rest of the comp required for the C-Suite, but that seems like a lot. I doubt the CEO's value is irreplaceable. [0] https://www.laweekly.com/fast-food-using-slow-food-talking-w...

>So that CEO bonus costs ~$0.13 per salad sold. [...] but that seems like a lot. I doubt the CEO's value is irreplaceable. The flaw in this analysis is that you think chipotle only sells salads. They obviously don't. At least based off my experience most people order burritos/bowls, not salads. Here's my analysis: per wikipedia, chipotle has revenue of $5.586 billion in 2019. If we divide CEO's salary by that, we arr…

To be fair, the source said 750k people fed daily, and I made a slip and wrote salads since that is what I usually get.

The calculation is then:

Compensation / (daily consumers * days) = average cost added per person fed (and, if once per day, per item sold).

This allows us to ignore the price per item or total revenue, which might be misleading.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#480

Post by ChrisLomont »

rustybelt wrote: post #465
ChrisLomont wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>IMO official numbers dramatically increased By dramatically increased you mean went from 1.8% during a pandemic when people were afraid to move around to 2.5% as things eased, well in line with historical levels. I think the OP is much more accurate with the statement "the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated". In fact, if you look back more than the year you picked, you'll see there was a huge…

This is all semantics around what qualifies as a "great" resignation, but don't those charts show people quitting at the highest rate in at least 20 years?

Yes, right after not quitting and giving the biggest dip in 20 years. So this is likely the backlog.

And it's not a very big amount. If the rate lasts a long time let me know. Most likely, as should be clear from the graphs, there is very little out of the ordinary happening.

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