Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

npr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 520 posts

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#21

Post by gfiorav »

softwaredoug wrote: post #3

> spectacles like the immense popularity of the "Anti-Work" thread on Reddit — have gone as far as to suggest this record-breaking trend is a movement of young, able-bodied Americans rejecting work altogether. I don't think this is the point of "anti work". The point is (to me) that people should be treated equitably at work and that work shouldn't be the center of our lives

This is honestly my gripe with r/antiwork. It could be (and sometimes is) a hub for a mature conversation towards unionizing and regaining meaningful industry in the US, but it choses to be the place for edgy workers from all ages to declare themselves "marxists". As if they thrived on the ever-diminishing amount of gasps that word incites. Like a bunch of teenagers trying to out-edge everyone else. Hard to read.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#23

Post by howmayiannoyyou »

> The Great Renegotiation is also a byproduct of inflation. Workers are seeking better pay to keep up with the rising cost of living.

Keeping in mind small business is collectively the largest employer and contributor to US output... let's remember the coming rate hikes will greatly reduce available cash to small businesses that operate with credit lines, credit card debt or via home equity lines. That is a LOT of US businesses. Now add to this increased input costs due to inflation. Now add increased tax rates. You can also expect lending requirements will tighten.

So, it's worth considering the odds of worker prosperity (vs) the odds of a wave of business failures and associated unemployment/underemployment in many (but by no means all) sectors.

Personally, I think the Fed & Treasury will continue fiscal stimulus and capitulate hard in the face of a deep recession. More of the same can kicking, and we'll see what seems like prosperity. In reality, it's a delay of an inevitable downturn unless some magical productivity innovation or goods/services advance emerges to rescue the US economy.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#24

Post by abofh »

thechao wrote: post #4
duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

Here's my thought: most employees are quite risk averse, and businesses have been able to take advantage of that in order to negotiate better for wages (better=lower wages). The pandemic essentially forced people into being more comfortable in taking higher risks. It turns out that marginal increases in risk taking translate into wage gains.

You are correct, but much like banking and other industries, as information becomes more discoverable, negotiations tend to balance more towards... Equitable?

I have three contracts that drive the bulk of my revenue right now. I have a few different titles, but for simplicity, let's say Sr DevOps. As a matter of course, my oldest clients have my loyalty, but my highest bidder has my attention - work needs to be done on a Saturday night? For my oldest client, I'll do it. Conflicting deadlines come in? I'll try and take the hit (work extra hours), but the priority? The highest payer with the least micro managerial leadership.

You pay me for my experience, or you pay me to attend your meeting while someone else pays me for my experience to actually do something. It's ok, I'll wait, I charge by the hour either way, and if your meeting is useless enough, I can charge you both!

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#25

Post by shadowgovt »

duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

I think the MIT study painted an interesting picture (https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/toxic-culture-is-driving...).

It has the issues of small sample size and cherry-picking (i.e. the researchers tranched companies by industry and had a model of "toxic culture" that could be disagreed with if one cared to make the case), but the overall turn-head-and-squint takeaway is the pandemic forced a lot of workers to ask the question "Am I willing to risk death for the assholes I work with?" and for a lot of employees, the answer was "no." Places where the answer was not "no" had higher retention (both across industries and within industries).

What they do after that is an open question... Some choose another company, some choose another non-career avenue if it is available to them. But the point is the pandemic forced a perspective shift that hadn't happened before.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#26

Post by gfiorav »

rr808 wrote: post #20

I think too its a result of 30 years where employers have had the upper hand in the job market (except perhaps 1999, 2008). Wages have stagnated during these decades, it seems finally maybe wages can catch up.

Not a Moore fan, but I think this is his most underrated movie [0]. It became free to watch on Youtube a couple years ago. Maybe it'll pick some more traction now.

[0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUpnFNUmfKw

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#27

Post by bachmeier »

duxup wrote: post #7
thechao wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's my thought: most employees are quite risk averse, and businesses have been able to take advantage of that in order to negotiate better for wages (better=lower wages). The pandemic essentially forced people into being more comfortable in taking higher risks. It turns out that marginal increases in risk taking translate into wage gains.

I'm inclined to agree that some folks who stayed home (by choice or not) found that ... it wasn't that bad and doing so to find something else probably seems easier than it was before. My wife is possibly taking a leave to care for her father ... she's thinking a lot about if she wants to go back. If she wasn't taking a leave that first step / time might not be there to decide to do something else.

> I'm inclined to agree that some folks who stayed home (by choice or not) found that ... it wasn't that bad and doing so to find something else probably seems easier than it was before.

There's this, but let's not forget that the S&P 500 is up about 40% relative to its pre-pandemic peak, so retirement accounts have been growing really fast. Staying home suddenly became an option for many.

There were already concerns about boomer retirements. Add a pandemic most dangerous to older people, lack of concern for worker safety, and massive increases in retirement accounts, and you have a lot of people that can and do stay home.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#28

Post by steelstraw »

softwaredoug wrote: post #3

> spectacles like the immense popularity of the "Anti-Work" thread on Reddit — have gone as far as to suggest this record-breaking trend is a movement of young, able-bodied Americans rejecting work altogether. I don't think this is the point of "anti work". The point is (to me) that people should be treated equitably at work and that work shouldn't be the center of our lives

What's up with all the language games lately?

"Defund the police". No no, we don't actually mean defund the police...

"Anti work". No no, we don't actually mean we're anti work...

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#29

Post by slowhand09 »

ashtonkem wrote: post #12
duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

The phrase “great resignation” also implies that people are just quitting, when in reality they’re changing jobs. The unemployment rate is lower than it’s been in a decade (except a month or two here and there), people who are resigning are getting new jobs.

The unemployment rate was lower in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. It went up when the pandemic kicked in. Here is one (of many) sources I found with a single google search. https://www.statista.com/statistics/193290/unemployment-rate...

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#30

Post by randomdata »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19
duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

Anecdotally in my business I saw effectively no churn in employment through most of the pandemic. Hiring new people was also nearly impossible. Then, towards the end of last year a significant number of workers quit. Finding new people to replace them also was surprisingly easy.

I suspect a lot of people were afraid to move on to new opportunities for a while due to the uncertainty of the pandemic. Once enough confidence was restored, the job hopping we'd expect to play out over the course of a couple of years all happened in a few months.

Post reply on HN