Putin's plan is that a real democracy (as opposed to a "democracy" where the party in power always wins) cannot be allowed to happen in a country that is culturally close to Russia. It might give the Russians ideas.
Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
31–40 of 70 posts
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada? As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help"…
Look, I get that Russia is not exactly kind to its neighbors, I have some Polish relatives who tell me all about that. But I'm just not really sure that the US has any business being in Russia's "near abroad" anymore. The US isn't 50% of the world GDP anymore, and is politically paralyzed - I don't think we have the appetite nor the finances for another gigantic war. Now this is controversial, so don't take this the…
I’m German and think we spend too little on our own military - to the point where it’s a joke.
Europe needs to grow up and get able to defend itself.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#33[deleted]
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#34I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated: 1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato mem…
Russia has been agressor for the last 200 years. Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well) decided to attack the narrative changed to present the regime as an innocent victim. That's typical Russian propaganda that they need to protect their borders and their minorities, which is being used to justify t…
> Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well)
May ask you, did you really learned about early 20th century history or Molotov-Ribbentrop act is the only thing you know about it?
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#35If Ukraine is going to attack the separatists then Russia would have little choice. They are probably positioning to grab additional gains whence that happens.
I'm not sure what additional gains they can attempt, but I feel Russia has fallen into a trap she created a few years ago.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#36My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…
>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada? As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help"…
I am always baffled by people talking about the big European powers of the past going on to derive some sort of claim over other present day people. Of course it makes it easier to think about the Germans vs. the Russians on a chess board, that is Eastern Europe. But there are people living there right now and Russians have no business whatsever to claim anything or assert any influence there. They can make offers, it is just that other offers (NATO, EU) are better. They have to accept that. If countries decide to invite the US to help, then it is absolutely OK for the US to help, no matter how close that country might be to Russia.
Fortunately we are not glorifying WWII Germany, even though we could (moon landing, etc.) and by extension also WWI Germany (even though the whole guilt here is highly debatable). Stalin Russia should get the exact same treatment. And while we are at it, we can also put the US in there (e.g. for what they did to Japan). All emperors should reside in the same bucket: They are all essentially a bunch of war criminals invading other peoples countries. We can look at positive second degree outcomes, but should not forget the cruelty of war.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#37In my opinion this video had a decent set of views around the intent and reasons for the timing. [1] I think it's worth at least listening to in the background. If they are right it might explain the end-game.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#38My take: There might not be a clearly defined endgame. The point is the tension itself. By keeping us guessing and talking, Russia maintains a flexible position while keeping everyone mystified. It almost doesn’t even matter if they attack, as long as we’re thinking and talking about it.
If you’re thinking of a more long-term end-game for Russia, I would recommend reading about the Primakov Doctrine.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#39My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…
So following your logic every country has a right to exert influence over it’s neighbors using military power. The are pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine, yet their support is low, around 10% and falling, so no hope of achieving Russia-oriented Ukraine via political means. The presence of West in Ukraine is overstated. Yes, Ukraine follows pro-Western foreign policy, what else could be done? Ukrainian electorat…
To be fair Ukrainian government blocked/stopped from distribution most pro Russian media (both TV and newspapers) and jailed/drove to exile pro Russian politicians so whether actual election outcome represents preferences of the public is not clear before we even consider election fraud.
0% people voted for Taliban in Afghanistan (as no Taliban politician was allowed to participate in elections) yet they clearly enjoyed support of majority of population.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#40I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated: 1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato mem…
Russia has been agressor for the last 200 years. Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well) decided to attack the narrative changed to present the regime as an innocent victim. That's typical Russian propaganda that they need to protect their borders and their minorities, which is being used to justify t…
To be fair Poland was first to start dividing Europe when it got piece of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Splitting Poland with Germany was done only after western powers refused all attempts by USSR to rein in Germany as wet dream in London at time was Berlin fighting Moscow and destroying communism.