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An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

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Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#441

Post by ptero »

mbesto wrote: post #423
ptero wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold. Holding its value in inflation-adjusted terms is very different than getting the highest return. I think most gold investors want the first and ignore the second: if I want profits, holding a piece of metal is the last thing I would do long-term; no question there. The links you posted did not convince me, sorry (no offense). Yes, y…

> When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value. Re-read the articles. If you're looking for short/mid term inflation protection (5~10 years) then gold doesn't hold (unless you happen to get lucky for that period over a 100 year period). If you're looking for long term inflation protection (50+ years) then it doesn't either. If your assumption is that gold is valuable because it st…

>> When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value.

> Re-read the articles. ... If you're looking for long term inflation protection (50+ years) then it doesn't either.

How about some specific references? This was not productive (especially since the second reference is behind a paywall). Quote a specific statement and we can drill into this.

> If shit really hits the fan, you wouldn't be able to convert to a currency that you could actually live on so this point is moot.

Forgive me for what I am saying next (it is not a payback for your "re-read the articles" comment; honest), but I find statements like this incredibly naive. I think you have a pink pony view of the "catastrophic risk". Have you seen civil wars? real hunger? deaths from easily treatable infections? cannibalism?

Throughout this type of crap having some physical gold is one of the most reliable tickets out. You can often trade it (with significant haircuts) for stuff you need or a safe passage. Yes, you have to deal with underworld or gangs, but this is still much better than the alternative.

I am now one of the "rich, soft americans" and I hope my kids do not have to go through any of this. And I personally do not see it likely in the US, at least in the next 10-20 years. But the world can change fast and I still want to have a few gold coins in my physical possession, together with a good knife. No offense, mate, and good hunting!

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#442

Post by yokoprime »

eric_cc wrote: post #196
yokoprime wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to spot the biggest fool is quite entertaining

What if the biggest fool is you? That would be quite the karma.

Then I would be the biggest fool. But i'm not sure your hypothesis will withstand occams razor.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#443

Post by eric_cc »

yokoprime wrote: post #442
eric_cc wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the biggest fool is you? That would be quite the karma.

Then I would be the biggest fool. But i'm not sure your hypothesis will withstand occams razor.

Wouldn’t Occam’s razor favor bitcoin over the usd in the long run?

Bitcoin monetary policy is dead simple and sound. USD not so much.

I can’t think of any advantage to usd unless you consider having physical money an advantage (eg paper bills and coins)

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#444

Post by eric_cc »

CaptainZapp wrote: post #439
felipeko wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a good thing to be encouraged to saving instead of spending. No one needs incentive to spend. You will spend if you have plenty to spend. Having a currency which gains in value will take you there.

> Having a currency which gains in value will take you there. Until it doesn't. As a matter of fact crypto "currencies" are a rotten medium for saving due to their volatility. Sure, they may go up in value. But then that's pure speculation, certainly not saving.

You can’t avoid being a speculator. Any currency or asset you hold is your speculative position. You may believe that one position is more speculative than another. But fiat currencies can go into hyperinflation and become worthless, for example.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#445

Post by eric_cc »

mcguire wrote: post #367
eric_cc wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it affords you anonymity What? Bitcoin is radically transparent. The vast majority of crimes are committed with standard currencies like $USD. If 'crime' is the only value you see, you're extremely ignorant. What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?

" What is the bull case for $USD? " Is Bitcoin a currency or an "investment"? (Here's a hint: you don't want a "bull case" for a currency.)

> you don't want a "bull case" for a currency.

Yes you do. Because currencies are a position to store value just like every other “investment”. Currencies can go bad and become literally worthless via hyperinflation, for example. And some currencies will hold their buying power better than others. To not consider whether your currency has a strong bull case… or whatever you want to call it… is basically blindly trusting it. That’s closer to faith and hope that logic.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#446

Post by eric_cc »

01acheru wrote: post #354
eric_cc wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay but the question was: what’s the bull case for $USD?

We started from your question “What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?”. Then you changed subject about being bullish when replying. So you must either decide: are we talking about currencies or about speculative assets? There are no reasons to be bullish about currencies, that’s not their purpose.

> There are no reasons to be bullish about currencies, that’s not their purpose.

Whether you hold currencies, stocks, cryptos - these are all positions with various possible outcomes. A currency can become worthless through hyperinflation, for example. So yes, you absolutely should be sizing up your currency position and deciding whether it is to your advantage to hold it.

You can say a currency bull case is that it’s stable representation of value. That thesis could play out or completely break down depending on how the government in control of the currency behaves themselves.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#447

Post by eric_cc »

chii wrote: post #391
eric_cc wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This advantage for $USD is already beginning to vanish. Assuming it does, are there any other reasons to be bullish $USD?

> This advantage for $USD is already beginning to vanish. this is an incorrect premise from which to draw any conclusions tho. Hypothetically, if this was true, then it would also imply the world economy and order to be changing, such that your way of life is going to be turned upside down. For example, world war 3.

Crypto is one of the great revolutions of the past several hundred years in terms of disrupting the world order and rearranging power on a global level. Few understand this yet.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#448

Post by stepanhruda »

VHRanger wrote: post #164
stepanhruda wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market makers don’t print riskless money, they are affected by a very real risk of divergence loss.

You dont have a risk of divergence loss if you're simultaneously buying and selling the same product in the same order book. Bid/ask spreads were as wide as double or triple digits during the liquidation event. At this point the only limit to riskless profits is your liquidity and the speed at which you can execute.

You can do arbitrage without being a market maker and you can be a market maker without doing arbitrage.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#449

Post by ForHackernews »

mickotron wrote: post #420
ForHackernews wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just want this environmental disaster to end. If they'd just outlaw proof-of-work cryptocurrencies, I'd shut up and you can continue gambling your proof-of-stake digital chuck-e-cheese tokens to your heart's content. But you're wasting more power than Argentina to do it. So yes, I hate this garbage and want it to fail.

I wonder how much energy YouTube or Facebook use compared to Bitcoin? We could argue that Facebook and YouTube are only providing entertainment value. They don't do anything especially novel or provide critical infrastructure. Rockets that deliver payloads into space are INCREDIBLY bad for the environment. But it provides critical services and infrastructure for now and the future. Bitcoin provides a novel, decentral…

Please educate yourself: PoW cryptocurrency is a red queen's race that is deliberately inefficient. I can't think of any other technology that continuously and deliberately wastes more and more energy. The only analogy I can even think of might be a nuclear arms' race: you have to keep building more and more missiles or there's a risk your enemy might get the jump on you.

Any engineer worthy of the title should be appalled by this inept and abusive design.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#450

Post by 01acheru »

eric_cc wrote: post #446
01acheru wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We started from your question “What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?”. Then you changed subject about being bullish when replying. So you must either decide: are we talking about currencies or about speculative assets? There are no reasons to be bullish about currencies, that’s not their purpose.

> There are no reasons to be bullish about currencies, that’s not their purpose. Whether you hold currencies, stocks, cryptos - these are all positions with various possible outcomes. A currency can become worthless through hyperinflation, for example. So yes, you absolutely should be sizing up your currency position and deciding whether it is to your advantage to hold it. You can say a currency bull case is that it’…

Stocks and currencies don’t behave the same, currencies in the long term are bearish.

Anyway if you think about bulls and bears you are not thinking of currencies, you better put your money into more volatile markets. A bullish currency is against our modern conception of how economical models work, so I wouldn’t place my money on it.

I’m not saying you shouldn’t place your money on BTC or other crypto, it’s kind of a good time right now since we are full bear and a bull period is probably starting soon. I mean, by watching historical trends and aknowledging the contingencies that pushed down values in those last months, maybe we’ll have to wait some time but it should bull during 2022.

All in all, crypto market is still not a currency market but an asset market. Just for one simple reason: crypto (currencies?) are still not currencies. When crypto will turn into currencies you’ll start seeing a inexorable slow bearish course for all of them, it’s economics baby ;)

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