Do success stories cause false beliefs about success? • Hacker News Board

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#251

Post by lukas099 » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 1:58 PM UTC

988747 wrote: post #182

bennysomething wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that 80 percent of American millionaires are first generation affluent. Source: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Millionaire-Next-Door-Surprising-Am...

What's their definition of "millionaire"? Thanks to inflation it is now possible to become one just by virtue of having a household of two white collar workers, each making 150k annually, no kids, no cars - after a decade or two you cross 1M USD net worth. I think it is helpful to define "millionaire" in 1920s dollars ($20M today)

It's been a long time since I've read the book, but I remember the average millionaire household they surveyed only having a single income of $70k or something.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#252

Post by lukas099 » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 2:02 PM UTC

GameOfFrowns wrote: post #229

WalterBright wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an astute observation. Choosing winners for friends, and cutting loose the losers, will increase your odds of success. For example, if you want to be good at skiing, hang out with people who are good at skiing.

This only works if your peers aren't following the same strategy of maximizing potential otherwise they would just cut you out for being the least successful friend.

Unless you can manage to be good at something they want to be better at.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#253

Post by telxosser » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 2:08 PM UTC

lampe3 wrote: post #99

WalterBright wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

You sound like a American entitled boomer. Just work hard and it will be fine. Which if you look was never true. > Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot, for many many years, before breaking through. Sure but they also got talent and were the exception and your view is biased. The ods of becoming a guitar god are very low and of course they are…

Get a guitar and start practicing is so delusional.

The guitarist Buckethead is a great example. He isn't just great on guitar, he also wears a mask and KFC bucket on his head and is good with nunchucks. The idea "talent" and hard work wins out in the end is just complete bullshit.

Marketing is far far more important. That seems incredibly obvious.

The idea of talent and hard work is some kind of Christian residual value that is still hanging around even though marketing dominates in literally every domain in the modern world.

If you want success you need to find your KFC bucket, mask and nunchucks because most domains can't really be differentiated by the actual task at hand.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#254

Post by hackerfromthefu » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:49 PM UTC

DarylZero wrote: post #169

bennysomething wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bill gates example always gets rolled out for some reason, he's an outlier. For most people, if they are at a good university, doing something they are good at, then graduating is probably a good idea. Bill gates made a calculated decision, Paul Allen persuaded him that they were about to miss out on the micro computer revolution. If you look at what bill gates accomplished as an under grad, there is a strong arg…

If you're talking about "success" as in getting a job, having a gapless resume, good background check, good credit, fitting the corporate mold, becoming the "organization man," etc., then you need to a college degree. However, this is not a path to the _kind_ of success Bill Gates had, which has to do with getting in early on some new field's new monopoly.

And watching that new field like a hawk, and outcompeting all the other hawks.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#255

Post by inter_netuser » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 8:43 PM UTC

burntoutfire wrote: post #247

inter_netuser wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

engineers make 2.5-3k in europe after taxes? thats third world wages?

Both numbers (5k in US, 2.5-3k in Europe) were monthly.

devs in Ukraine not infrequently make 10k a month.

Ukraine.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#256

Post by Apocryphon » Tue, Jan 18, 2022, 12:26 AM UTC

bennysomething wrote: post #151

slim109ya wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many guitar gods use drugs, Walt Disney and Bill Gates did not stay in school, and people like Mike Tyson and Kevin Mitnick were successful after comitting crimes. There's just too many variables in life that make success more about luck than following general guidelines.

The bill gates example always gets rolled out for some reason, he's an outlier. For most people, if they are at a good university, doing something they are good at, then graduating is probably a good idea. Bill gates made a calculated decision, Paul Allen persuaded him that they were about to miss out on the micro computer revolution. If you look at what bill gates accomplished as an under grad, there is a strong arg…

It's an outlier, but Gates is far from the only prominent figure in tech who dropped out. It's a whole dang cliche at this point- Jobs, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Dorsey, Dell, Kalanick, Gabe Newell, Jan Koum of WhatsApp all dropped out. Even Page dropped out of his PhD program! Not to mention dropouts from other industries, from Richard Branson to Henry Ford.

This reoccurring pattern in tech is probably why Thiel came up with his whole "don't go to college" narrative.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#257

Post by Klinky » Tue, Jan 18, 2022, 4:10 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #231

webmaven wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you certain those dots are connected? We've had profit seeking entrepreneurship for a long time and famines haven't been gone very long, and arguably profit-driven climate change is the biggest potential source of looming famines (should they start to reoccur).

Famine was first eliminated in 1800 by the US with its free market agriculture. Collective farms have never succeeded in providing sufficient food. Starving people are not good for the environment. They stop caring about anything but getting food. Profit-driven farms are why you're able to type into your computer complaints about capitalism, sipping your morning Starbucks, rather than holding a cup on a streetcorner…

Are you saying it was eliminated in 1800 or in the 1800s? Do you have sources you can cite that makes the case that US "free market" agriculture eliminated famine? Farming in the 1800s was not free of exploitative practices such as slavery/sharecropping, nor was life easy for farmers, many faced hardships or lost their farms entirely. Sure call it a "free market" if you will, but note the evils and failures that comes with that "freedom".

US farming/agriculture actually has a long history of relying on government relief, subsidies, tariffs and low-cost/free federal land use to remain profitable.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#258

Post by Klinky » Tue, Jan 18, 2022, 4:15 AM UTC

nickpp wrote: post #222

Klinky wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haber process was developed while Fritz Haber was at University of Karlsruhe, a public research university. BASF was hesitant to invest in it, but luckily employee/engineer(not exactly an entrepreneur) Carl Bosch was there to convince them otherwise, and was able to industrialize the process. Haber process also has its negatives, such as an ammonia resource for war, and the growing use of factory/unsustainable farmin…

We've seen how non-profit-driven research works in Soviet countries: their spies were busy stealing tech from the west, while the country was falling further and further behind. Maybe there are many reasons to do research and people will often learn just for the sake of learning. But to turn that research into an actual useful, available product on the shelf - you need a profit motivation. Otherwise nobody will do th…

The US heavily invests in public research. The NIH budget is larger than all US billionaire's philanthropic donations combined. Public funding has great ability to affect change and discover.

"Communists are scary" is a poor argument.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#259

Post by Klinky » Tue, Jan 18, 2022, 4:24 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #232

Klinky wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haber process was developed while Fritz Haber was at University of Karlsruhe, a public research university. BASF was hesitant to invest in it, but luckily employee/engineer(not exactly an entrepreneur) Carl Bosch was there to convince them otherwise, and was able to industrialize the process. Haber process also has its negatives, such as an ammonia resource for war, and the growing use of factory/unsustainable farmin…

Sewing machines. Dishwashers. Airplanes. Jet engines. Xerox machines. Ethernet. The first internet. Radio. Light bulbs. Movies. TV. Telephony. Corn flakes. Cars. Printing. Microprocessors. Trains. Steamships. Pencils. Safety pins. Assembly line. Basically everything in your dwelling.

You're kind of citing the successes only here, not the massive number of failures along the way. Nor did I state that an entrepreneur couldn't be a success, more that needing to be profitable could impeded desires to experiment or tinker with things not deemed to have immediate profit potential.

I would like to see environments where entrepreneurs are encouraged, and where failure doesn't mean financial ruin. The current landscape sees a lot of people betting their futures, or being completely unable to participate(health insurance/family concerns).

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#260

Post by DarylZero » Tue, Jan 18, 2022, 12:10 PM UTC

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #254

DarylZero wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about "success" as in getting a job, having a gapless resume, good background check, good credit, fitting the corporate mold, becoming the "organization man," etc., then you need to a college degree. However, this is not a path to the _kind_ of success Bill Gates had, which has to do with getting in early on some new field's new monopoly.

And watching that new field like a hawk, and outcompeting all the other hawks.

A lot the "outcompeted" still left with billions.