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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#101
Confirmation/survivorship bias thrives when paired together with the illusion of free will.

If we were talking about a philosophical example of an apple tree in a remote closed garden, people would agree that the presence of the apple tree itself is a factor that plays a role to whether you'll eat an apple. No matter how much you can stretch your hand or climb a ladder, if there's no apple tree to climb there's no way you can eat apples no matter how hard you tried.

But the more we increase the complexity (like putting a store that sells apples close to the garden) the more people are willing to believe that it was their own ability that made them eat an apple, and not the access to the tree or the store.

Now increase that complexity even further and the noise will become high enough to make you think that everyone can get the metaphorical apple if they try, which is so dumb that is baffling to me.

I had an argument with a friend over the role things outside of his control played in getting his first job as a self-taught. We almost made this a political argument for absolutely no reason. He felt offended because I was trying to tell him that the country of birth still plays a role on not only how much money you can potentially make but also the ease of access to entry level jobs (unemployment rates are a thing outside of your control).

People would rather romanticize their self-reliance than adjust it by admitting external circumstances as ONLY A FACTOR to their success, to the point where they will feel offended and rather remove you from their life than admit the role of the environment and timing in everything we do.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#102
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

Sleeping less doesn't mean much if you're born in a remote village in Africa or China where clean water is a luxury, in a toxic family where not being beaten up and having a stable psyche is a requirement if you want to act out your potential at school.

You don't choose whether you're depressed or not. It's absurd to me that in 2022 you're saying that learning that successful people are not depressed is an actionable advice that people can learn from.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#103
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IBM went to talk to Gary Kildall (CP/M) first. Yeah, and that makes sense. You need an OS you talk to the guy who has an OS first. What's not mentioned in any success story about MS is how they got to start talking with IBM in the first place after the negotiations for CP/M failed. It's not like they had an OS product. Anyway, networking is essential to doing business, we all agree on it. What I'm saying is the "su…

> It's not like they had an OS product. Gates had a plan to get one, though. > networking Want to improve your odds? Go to tech conferences. I met and talked with Gates at one in the 80s. Nothing came of it, but I didn't really try to engage him. I spent a half hour talking to Allen, too. He offered me a job. I turned it down. My mom didn't open these doors. I did.

"My mom" is short for you are not alone in your success. How can you describe that in a sane way when you know that just one small variable led to this specific outcome. Tech conferences did not get us Linux, it was just an idea that failed many times before and since.

For me networking has been vital because I've gotten to do so much fun, but it has been a massive waste of time for the most part.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#104
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I'm starting to see this for myself and now i'm basically decided to ignore a lot of advice after consuming a lot of it. Instead just to have a few goals and spend time in reflection to decide if they are still what I want and how that is working for me, what I need to do to get closer to them etc and let that decide the best routines. So many things I hear that are apparently the answer to everything just doesn…

Don't start with all these productivity systems... I tried them all. Keeping a second brain for me was just waste of time and being busy with writing stuff down. A quick google search was most often faster. Journaling after a full journal did not give me anything in return. Just a journal full of crap. Planing my whole week in a calendar when to do what... Good luck with a child doing that. Specially if you don't hav…

Healthy competition is the best motivator. Challenging each other does work but both parties have to give a shit.

Another great motivator is being told you will never be able to do something, which gives fuel to the motivation in the form of spite.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#105
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

Many guitar gods use drugs, Walt Disney and Bill Gates did not stay in school, and people like Mike Tyson and Kevin Mitnick were successful after comitting crimes.

There's just too many variables in life that make success more about luck than following general guidelines.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#106

Confirmation/survivorship bias thrives when paired together with the illusion of free will. If we were talking about a philosophical example of an apple tree in a remote closed garden, people would agree that the presence of the apple tree itself is a factor that plays a role to whether you'll eat an apple. No matter how much you can stretch your hand or climb a ladder, if there's no apple tree to climb there's no wa…

but none of them had any choice in how they reacted now did you have a choice in how you reacted since as you pointed out free will is an illusion

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#107
post #98

Imagine if (apologies for the metaphor) each and every sperm cell knew the odds of fertilizing an egg and had a choice whether to pursue that goal or not. I think that in that case no egg would ever be fertilized, right? I think success is 99% dumb luck. I think everything in life is 99% dumb luck. The fact that each and every one of us exists is dumb luck. But if we resign to that belief, nobody will ever do anythin…

Elon, Zuck, Bezos, Jobs all had incredibly privileged backgrounds. Jobs was probably the poorest - which is to say his adopted parents were comfortably middle class - but he also had a mentor who worked at HP and deliberately scouted out smart kids with an interest in electronics.

There's a sweet spot where opportunity, mentoring, and motivation are far more evenly distributed. The ideal growth culture provides a mix of challenges for everyone who can handle them and support - of all kinds - for everyone who shows some evidence of talent and motivation.

Culturally we're nowhere close to that. So instead we have fairytales about super-special people who are incredibly smart and hard working - where in fact they're not outstandingly smart or hard working, but they may be more motivated (not always for good reasons) and possibly more divergent than average. And mostly they're born with extra opportunities which aren't available to most people.

It's debatable if this is inspiring - or at least questionable if it's more inspiring than a much wider range of successes and success stories would be.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

This is the dumbest thing I read in a while. It doesn’t account for survivor bias. How many people met all those criteria and failed? It could be that for every million with those characteristics, only 1 succeeded.

No post body was provided.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

Sleeping less doesn't mean much if you're born in a remote village in Africa or China where clean water is a luxury, in a toxic family where not being beaten up and having a stable psyche is a requirement if you want to act out your potential at school. You don't choose whether you're depressed or not. It's absurd to me that in 2022 you're saying that learning that successful people are not depressed is an actionable…

Surprise, you don't get to choose anything at all on that list.
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