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Covid-19 breakthrough data

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

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Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#121

Post by ryandrake »

pelasaco wrote: post #118
ryandrake wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should be isolating either way. Just because you can go everywhere doesn't mean you should. People going out and about while unknowingly positive is why this thing won't end. Testing positive and deliberately not isolating is even worse. You're right though: If you look at it only through the lens of individual incentives, the official test has no upside. One of the huge problems with governments' responses to th…

but did you read what I wrote? I will stay at home isolated until I'm negative. So for sure I will stay home. What I question is how good is the idea of "vaccination + booster" vs "lets test everyone, everywhere" specially now that is more or less clear that Omicron can go through the vaccines.

Oops, missed that you are the same person as grandparent post.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#122

Post by sschueller »

xeromal wrote: post #97
sschueller wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make much sense when looking at hospital data. The previously infected have the lowest hospital administrations vs even the vaccinated. If you are double vaxed and get infected it make zero sense to also get a booster unless you have an immune system issue.

Any chance you remember where you read the reinfection data?

On Page 27 and 28 of the daily reports [1] from the city of Zürich you can see the hospitalization and ICU rates.

[1] https://www.zh.ch/content/dam/zhweb/bilder-dokumente/themen/...

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#123

Post by roamerz »

pstoll wrote: post #25
roamerz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably a statistic that they don’t want have in their possession anyhow.

He didn’t go the hospital. That doesn’t change the overwhelmingly positive benefits of “hospitalization rates”.

I agree. However I am fed up with the cdc, youtube, facebook and others trying to control the narrative in any way they can. For instance not considering past infection as equal to a vaccination. Follow the science or don’t but do whatever truthfully. The next time when the cdc needs us to have faith in their recommendations we won’t have. This shouldn’t even be fathomable but here we are.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#124

Post by dehrmann »

FabHK wrote: post #38
Scene_Cast2 wrote: post #16

One thing to note is that the effectiveness metric also includes the behavioral and populational differences. I'd personally really like to know what the metric would be if (hypothetically, just for analysis) the vaccine was a placebo. For example, if the people who get the vaccine are generally more able to work from home, then the metric would still be significantly above zero. Just for clarity, I believe that the…

Well, one important confounder is age (older people tend to be more vaccinated), but they control for that. Many other confounders cannot easily be controlled for, but is there any reason to assume that they're correlated with the outcome? It could be that vaccinated people are more careful in terms of meeting other people. At any rate, we had big RCTs at the beginning that demonstrated efficacy against the then prev…

Another big confounder is household size.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#125

Post by mlyle »

drewg123 wrote: post #9

I wonder how under-reported mild breakthrough cases are, due to self testing? I'm fully vaccinated and boosted, and I had what I suspect is Omicron about 10 days ago. I had a mild fever (approaching, but not reaching 101), a sore throat, sneezing and nasal congestion for 3-4 days, and I tested positive with an over the counter rapid test. Overall, it was like a very minor cold. My girlfriend also tested positive, and…

Here's a piece of data I've been following, for Santa Clara County:

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-case-rates-vaccination-...

The number --- 871 cases per day per 100,000 unvax'd, for the week preceding 1/10-- is an amazing rate (7 day average). It tells us that 6.1% of the unvaxxed population became a case during a 1 week period. This doesn't count people who were infected and did not test or did not test in a way that got reported.

Your point about whether mild infections are slipping through is interesting. Probably the vaccinated have more paucisymptomatic infections. The unvaccinated and vaccinated probably test at different rates (which way? required workplace testing of unvaxxed vs. unvaxxed more likely to be deniers who don't want to test). Etc. So there's some confounds here, for sure. But boy that 871 per 100k number is fascinating.

Without reinfection (which we don't suspect is likely for Omicron-following-Omicron), it certainly can't stay at 6% of the population per week for long. I doubt they have spotted more than a third of infections.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#126

Post by javagram »

roamerz wrote: post #123
pstoll wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He didn’t go the hospital. That doesn’t change the overwhelmingly positive benefits of “hospitalization rates”.

I agree. However I am fed up with the cdc, youtube, facebook and others trying to control the narrative in any way they can. For instance not considering past infection as equal to a vaccination. Follow the science or don’t but do whatever truthfully. The next time when the cdc needs us to have faith in their recommendations we won’t have. This shouldn’t even be fathomable but here we are.

> For instance not considering past infection as equal to a vaccination

The CDC has published data on this multiple times... Vaccination seems to be more protective than a past infection. A past infection is approximately equal to a single dose of a two-dose vaccine.

e.g. CDC MMWR August 2021, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm "These findings suggest that among persons with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, full vaccination provides additional protection against reinfection. To reduce their risk of infection, all eligible persons should be offered vaccination, even if they have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2."

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#127

Post by javagram »

Lammy wrote: post #68
pstoll wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “only 1% will die” argument, sure I remember that one from early days. But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people. My advice is don’t break your arm or get in a car accident or have a heart attack right now - it could be lethal because health care resources are at a breaking point (in the US).

Truly a novel situation we find ourselves in: https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%... https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...

Check the death statistics instead of headlines and you'll see it truly is a novel situation - no previous year saw as many Americans die as 2020 and 2021. And excess deaths correspond closely to regions that saw high reported COVID-19 deaths, indicating "COVID-19 deaths" are people who would not have died had they not been infected with and killed by COVID-19.

2022 death rates are still high, nearing 2000 people killed by COVID-19 daily. We can hope that due to the death toll hitting mostly the unvaccinated, plus omicron being a somewhat milder than Delta, we won't possibly be able to hit the same high death rates all year long.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#128

Post by throw0101a »

wand3r wrote: post #13

Does anyone have data on boosted death rate? It is really hard to find stats. “Vaccinated” is such a difficult term because it can encompass J&J from nearly a year ago for example. I see some breakdowns by vax supplier vs hospitalizations. Really would like to know how many people who have taken the booster have died from covid ideally with age data.

> A total of 843,208 participants met the eligibility criteria, of whom 758,118 (90%) received the booster during the 54-day study period. Death due to Covid-19 occurred in 65 participants in the booster group (0.16 per 100,000 persons per day) and in 137 participants in the nonbooster group (2.98 per 100,000 persons per day). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 in the booster group, as compared with the nonbooster group, was 0.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.07 to 0.14; P

* https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115624

0.16 versus 2.98 per 100,000. 90% reduction.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#129

Post by Lammy »

javagram wrote: post #127
Lammy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truly a novel situation we find ourselves in: https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%... https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...

Check the death statistics instead of headlines and you'll see it truly is a novel situation - no previous year saw as many Americans die as 2020 and 2021. And excess deaths correspond closely to regions that saw high reported COVID-19 deaths, indicating "COVID-19 deaths" are people who would not have died had they not been infected with and killed by COVID-19. 2022 death rates are still high, nearing 2000 people kil…

No previous year saw as many Americans live as 2020 and 2021 either :)

https://www.census.gov/popclock/

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=PEPNATMONTHLY2021.N...

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#130

Post by lolc »

responsivity wrote: post #88
b112 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

Maybe if everyone got it all at once (and before omicron perhaps)? Idk tho these are all hypotheticals

Given that Omicron is assumed to have replicated in an animal population (mice) for a year, we should expect there to be other variants in animals. Even if we managed to vaccinate all humans at the same time, we'd likely see a new breakout a year or so down the line when immunity wanes in the human population.

Covd19 has been endemic for two years now. And it will be endemic until we find better vaccines. At that point, we'll probably be ready to wipe out the flu as well.

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