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Covid-19 breakthrough data

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

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Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#111

Post by lern_too_spel »

gilbetron wrote: post #101
b112 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials. You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate. My point is: - the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated Everyone agrees on this. - for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccin…

You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission - current vaccines, however, are barely, if at all, effective against Omicron. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... IF we had been able to vaccinate 90%+ of the world by the start of last summer, this pandemic had a good chance of ending. Delta made it much more difficult, and Omicron crushed that option.…

Even with Omicron, if everybody were vaccinated, the pandemic would be over, and we could open up society with endemic Covid, with hospitalization for a fully vaccinated population being lower than seasonal flu.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#112

Post by lern_too_spel »

webscalist wrote: post #15

- Population is considered fixed (or growing very slowly) - More people get vaccinated: A - Less people remain unvaccinated: A' (=1-A) - More people get infected: B B/A' will of course grow more rapidly than B/A

B/A' and B/A are nonsensical statistics that nobody tracks. The figures people report are infected vaccinated individuals over A and infected unvaccinated individuals over A'.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#113

Post by drno123 »

drewg123 wrote: post #56
drno123 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For example, check pages 30, 36 and 42 of the following report from Scotland: https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11089/22-01-12-covid...

That's interesting. I wonder if most of the unvaccinated population has already been infected with an older variant of covid-19, and if that previous infection provides a more effective immune response than the vaccine for omicron?

Either that, or vaccinated people are behaving as if they are fully protected and do not take care, while unvaccinated are more cautious. Recent data from Denmark shows the similr outcomes.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#114

Post by nojito »

throwawaybutno wrote: post #21

This data is really quite poor. It’s adjusted based on a 2000 census. It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%. If you’re using this as an argument to get vaccinated, it’s a bad one.

> It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%

This isn't possible. If it were true, NYC would have collapsed during the Omicron wave due to bed shortages.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#115

Post by SOLAR_FIELDS »

ErikCorry wrote: post #65
pelasaco wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany, but what is the upside to do the PCR test? You get officially in Isolation and can get a visit from the regulatory office to check if you are at home. AFAICS there is no upside. You won't get any treatment protocol, any help. You just get more pressure over you. I won't have the proof of recovery, but actually I don't need it since I have all certificates (2 shots + booster). That's make me think if this who…

If you get a long covid symptom and want to be treated for that it might be smart to keep your medical records up to date. Hard to know what the future brings on long covid and treatments for it. Or conceivably in a year they have two vaccines, one is more suitable for those that are recovered, the other more suitable for those who never had it. Which one will they give you?

I know this isn’t as much the case these days, but as of late 2020 several of the long COVID clinics in my area were only accepting patients if they could demonstrate a positive test. Presumably that requirement has laxed lately though.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#116

Post by brg »

drewg123 wrote: post #9

I wonder how under-reported mild breakthrough cases are, due to self testing? I'm fully vaccinated and boosted, and I had what I suspect is Omicron about 10 days ago. I had a mild fever (approaching, but not reaching 101), a sore throat, sneezing and nasal congestion for 3-4 days, and I tested positive with an over the counter rapid test. Overall, it was like a very minor cold. My girlfriend also tested positive, and…

In my area all self-tests are connected and must be digitally reported. However self-diagnosis may be a cause of underreporting.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#117

Post by smorgusofborg »

Scene_Cast2 wrote: post #73
smorgusofborg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really get the example of being able to work from home, but I would expect differences are extremely regional/national. In some countries there's a formal labor law for doctors notes after X days that is known by all and which might mean your doctor checks and registers the case(?) in other places it is total discretion if a manager demands a note but rarely does in places that aren't shift work oriented.

With the WFH example - suppose that 1) WFH is issued by companies as a blanket policy (different from 2-week isolation from getting sick) 2) people who get the vaccine tend to be the ones that WFH, and 3) WFH allows for less exposure. In that case, the people who get the vaccine tend to have less exposure and fewer chances to get sick, regardless of vaccine efficacy.

There's definite vaccine rate differences in industries, but much of that might be largely explained by age demographics of industries..

Given two people who WFH the vaccinated one can conveniently eat in a restaurant and go to the gym while the unvaccinated needs to get take out or is getting regular tests. I think vaccinated people have much more interaction with the virus unmasked in an indoor environment but much less likelihood of ever being tested when having light or no symptoms.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#118

Post by pelasaco »

ryandrake wrote: post #106
pelasaco wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany, but what is the upside to do the PCR test? You get officially in Isolation and can get a visit from the regulatory office to check if you are at home. AFAICS there is no upside. You won't get any treatment protocol, any help. You just get more pressure over you. I won't have the proof of recovery, but actually I don't need it since I have all certificates (2 shots + booster). That's make me think if this who…

You should be isolating either way. Just because you can go everywhere doesn't mean you should. People going out and about while unknowingly positive is why this thing won't end. Testing positive and deliberately not isolating is even worse. You're right though: If you look at it only through the lens of individual incentives, the official test has no upside. One of the huge problems with governments' responses to th…

but did you read what I wrote? I will stay at home isolated until I'm negative. So for sure I will stay home. What I question is how good is the idea of "vaccination + booster" vs "lets test everyone, everywhere" specially now that is more or less clear that Omicron can go through the vaccines.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#119

Post by tremon »

nojito wrote: post #114
throwawaybutno wrote: post #21

This data is really quite poor. It’s adjusted based on a 2000 census. It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%. If you’re using this as an argument to get vaccinated, it’s a bad one.

> It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10% This isn't possible. If it were true, NYC would have collapsed during the Omicron wave due to bed shortages.

It would be possible if the hospitalization rate due to Omicron is also 7x lower than for the earlier variants. I don't have numbers in either direction, but given case loads rising everywhere yet recorded deaths remaining relatively stable, it's not a priori an impossibility.

(edit: just checked the UK's stats over the past month: infections have peaked at 200k/day, 5x the baseline rate over the past few months. Daily deaths have doubled but not yet peaked, suggesting Omicron has at most a 2.5x reduction in severity -- usual caveats apply, this is very coarse data, IANAE etc)

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#120

Post by [deleted] »

pelasaco wrote: post #2

I'm full vaccinated and boosted. This week my antigen test is positive. I had some flu symptoms (fever, pain in my body, coughing) but nothing really hard. I'm still not 100%, but I'm fine. I'm 40 years old, on my weight and do regular sports (5x week). I dont smoke neither drink. Got it probably in the fitness studio. I will stay at home until my test is negative. I have 0 incentive to go to the hospital do a PCR te…

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