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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#91
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

> Some basic strategies: > 1. stay in school > 2. don't do drugs > 3. don't do crimes You forgot: 4. be born to rich parents That probably has a greater influence on chances of success than most others.

It probably does, but it's not something you can affect, so not really of note when discussing what you can do to increase you odds of succeeding in something, which is what he was doing.

It's also worth noting that the advice applies to people born wealthy too. You aren't likely to become a guitar god without practice even if you have money. It just might be easier to find the time to actually practice.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#92
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

> 1. they are rarely stupid not all of them but the tendency: a) Influencer b) pornstars c) tv stars > 2. they often sleep a lot less > 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). I asked that all of my bosses they do sleep as much as I or any other healthy person. > 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). Internal and External motivation is a thing but sure a depressed person will probably be not successful. It does not mean that Internal motivated person will be successful or that it even helps. I would like to see some evidence for that. > 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) Again some evidence that this is a general treat would be nice. > 6. they are healthier in general Not really the heart attack risk in C Level or management or related positions is very high. We just don't talk about dead people anymore. Steve Jobs is the outlier here.

> I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health conditions that impair their cognition to the point of debility, who are asleep 16 hours a day, constantly depressed and demotivated and break down at the first sight of adversity.

Because they are either dead or don't want to be know or we just don't want to talk about them because they don't fit our perfect world view.

Also the person you are describing needs help a lot of it and I don't see how this proves that the opposite would lead to success.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#93
post #7

Prime example: if you go to any article about "OKR methodology" you will find the authors stating that it was OKRs that made Google what it is. If your manager sees such an article, you will be switching to OKRs instantly.

Managers who constantly read inspiring business books and seek "that one trick" to success rarely are good managers.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#94

Nobody writes it, but it's okay to have average job, with average life and average family as long as you can enjoy your life! Why burden yourself with idea of success and setting expectations. At this point I am sure life doesn't give anything unless you look for it. And even if you seek, there is no guarantee. So I think it's waste of energy. My experience so far. I am really glad that I learned how stability is nec…

“I'm sick of not having the courage to be an absolute nobody.” - J.D. Salinger

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#95

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

The first two ideas are pretty cool, but you cannot start charging people money. You need to use the ol' reliable "deploying an app with ads that can be removed after paying some money", at least at start.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#96
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

This is the dumbest thing I read in a while. It doesn’t account for survivor bias. How many people met all those criteria and failed? It could be that for every million with those characteristics, only 1 succeeded.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#97
post #61
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh, I'd rather society focus on stable foundations that allow for thinking, tinkering and inventions, rather than moonshot attempts at getting rich that destroy you if they fail.

This doesn't work if progress requires something like making a big jump from one cliff to another. Saying "let's move safely 1cm at a time" gets you to the edge of the cliff, and then you stop and you get nowhere.

A beginner rock climber should generally practice how to move safely from static position to static position before trying any riskier dynamic moves. That approach will indeed limit where they can climb to, though. An experienced climber can lunge themselves through the air to grip an otherwise unreachable handhold, allowing them to climb to otherwise impossible places. Even the best, most experienced rock climbers in the world take an inherent risk when making dynamic moves like that, and occasionally die as a result.

I've gotten into climbing in the past, for the exercise and social aspects. I personally have no inherent desire to climb high enough to require a belay, and prefer the freedom of the bouldering walls in the gym. While I enjoy exploring big rocky areas of nature, I have no desire to dangle my legs over a cliff side or jump over crevices deep enough to severely injure or kill me, unless I have the appropriate safety equipment.

As a software engineer typically working on safety critical embedded systems, I try to work pragmatically and incrementally, with a focus on avoiding regressions. When I need to make a riskier move for the good of the system architecture, I'll once again make sure I have the appropriate safety equipment i.e. a peer reviewed plan, unit tests, tooling improvements, etc.

The CEO of the company I work for is actually a former professional rock climber. He and a couple other founders started the company with the goal of making an educational toy robot, and found success. They had a team of 20 or so, were shipping hardware, and had lined up millions of dollars of new investments. The founders then did some reflection, and realized that they didn't want to build toys. They took a huge leap and pivoted the company, and figuratively broke most of the company's bones in the process. Under a decade later, and it's a billion dollar company employing hundreds of people across the world, literally saving people from otherwise bleeding to death on a daily basis.

The company I work for wouldn't exist in its current form if people like the CEO hadn't taken massive risks and "taken their licks" in the process. The company also wouldn't exist in its current form if they hadn't hired methodical people like me to engineer sustainable technical solutions to serve the business's needs. It seems like there's benefit to embracing both approaches, and as a society we should encourage the diversity of thought rather than discourage one approach or another.

Also, there's risk in anything anyone ever does because life is fragile and ephemeral on a geological timescale. I'd rather live in a world where rock climbers plummet to their deaths occasionally rather than in a world without rock climbers. With the former, at least someone may one day invent Spock's rocket boots from Star Trek 5 (which he uses to save Kirk from otherwise plummeting to his death while rock climbing.)

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#98
Imagine if (apologies for the metaphor) each and every sperm cell knew the odds of fertilizing an egg and had a choice whether to pursue that goal or not. I think that in that case no egg would ever be fertilized, right?

I think success is 99% dumb luck. I think everything in life is 99% dumb luck. The fact that each and every one of us exists is dumb luck. But if we resign to that belief, nobody will ever do anything interesting or grand. The remaining 1% (it's way less than 1% of course), is skill, determination, tenacity, ambition, etc. Without those, we wouldn't have any business successes.

Should you draw lessons from successes like Elon, Bezos, Zuck, Jobs? To an extent. But you can't really emulate anybody else. Everyone needs to find their own path.

But what we can do is get inspired by those people. Get inspired by the fact that some human being WAS able to achieve something interesting.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#99
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

You sound like a American entitled boomer.

Just work hard and it will be fine.

Which if you look was never true.

> Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot, for many many years, before breaking through.

Sure but they also got talent and were the exception and your view is biased. The ods of becoming a guitar god are very low and of course they are lower if you don't play the guitar but thats not the point. If I would just practice like one of these guitar gods the chance of becoming one is still really really really low.

> Doesn't matter what my personal definition is. I bet you have your own personal definition of a loser. You'll increase your odds of becoming one by doing what they do.

Sure if you compare doing nothing to doing something yeah you don't have to be a genies to understand that doing something is usually better. But just doing something will not bring you closer to success. its like 0.00% chance vs 0.00000001% chance. yeah the later one is bigger but that's it.

More important then going to school is learning More important then not doing drugs is understanding how to eat healthy Not doing crimes is such an odd thing to mention here.

I know your definition of a loser... a kid who does drugs and stops going to school. not that hard to figure that out. But maybe there are reasons why that kid takes drugs. Probably because to start with that from the start and later on we don't have the same play field. Not getting a job because you live on the wrong street is a thing not only in the US just to name one example.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#100
post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Also European, and would like to point out that the major difference is the investor cash available to startups comparing to places like Silicon Valley.

It’s not just the money. If you announce that you are going to found a tech startup people will think that you are just going to play Space Invaders (mind, not COD or FIFA) all day and stop having showers. If there’s a chance in 200 for an American that a relative will give them some money to bootstrap the company, in Europe is even less likely that your partner or family will take you seriously.

In some European countries it is extremely expensive to found companies. In Italy 5-10K€ would maybe cover all your bureaucratic costs for the first year vs 10-20£ in the UK (or 1K£ if you hire an accountant).

In Italy the government may prevent you from selling your company to foreign entities if it is deemed “strategic”, using the so-called “Golden Power”. What is a “strategic” company is so ill-defined, that it could be applied to any company way before it reaches unicorn status or even relevance.

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