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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#81

Post by kirso »

filipemcg wrote: post #39
lampe3 wrote: post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Also European, and would like to point out that the major difference is the investor cash available to startups comparing to places like Silicon Valley.

Its not even about being a European. Its about the notion to become successful and start a company you need to go and raise VC.

Its a story that was sold to the world so that the dealflow is generated. Go change the world they say, go and chase your dreams of a better world... Honestly that got me into severe depression. I am not bitter, just stating the obvious that we have been sold a narrative via hustle porn media and that narrative served well.

Now time for a wake up call, all us 300k wantepreneurs cannot generate unicorns and produce a successful exit. That is just statistically impossible.

https://twitter.com/sokirill/status/1314138323951050753

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#82

Post by nottorp »

WalterBright wrote: post #78
nottorp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IBM went to talk to Gary Kildall (CP/M) first. Yeah, and that makes sense. You need an OS you talk to the guy who has an OS first. What's not mentioned in any success story about MS is how they got to start talking with IBM in the first place after the negotiations for CP/M failed. It's not like they had an OS product. Anyway, networking is essential to doing business, we all agree on it. What I'm saying is the "su…

> It's not like they had an OS product. Gates had a plan to get one, though. > networking Want to improve your odds? Go to tech conferences. I met and talked with Gates at one in the 80s. Nothing came of it, but I didn't really try to engage him. I spent a half hour talking to Allen, too. He offered me a job. I turned it down. My mom didn't open these doors. I did.

> My mom didn't open these doors. I did.

I'm pretty sure that your success story will be missing some facts too if you write it. Perhaps just because you don't consider them important.

My one significant career enhancing event happened because I knew the right person. Not a parent, just another programmer friend who brought me into a job, but still.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#83

Post by WalterBright »

inter_netuser wrote: post #77
lampe3 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

My productivity drops drastically if I don't get enough sleep.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#84

Post by dogma1138 »

filipemcg wrote: post #39
lampe3 wrote: post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Also European, and would like to point out that the major difference is the investor cash available to startups comparing to places like Silicon Valley.

I don’t think it’s just a question of money, as far as Europe goes it’s still also very much a question of the legal and cultural “frameworks” that inhibit SV style ecosystems from forming.

The availability of cash is a factor for sure but it’s not necessary the main cause. And you can see this with some of the less developed European countries where the lack of incumbent large employers, large unions and as well as a weaker social security net do often lead to them being more entrepreneurial than some others.

And it’s also very important to distinguish between “tech” and startups.

Ireland been very successful at attracting large tech companies but it’s startup scene is still pretty poor. Whilst Eastern European and Baltic states are somewhat opposite.

On the other hand you have countries like Israel that managed to attract both whilst being pretty much at risk of war since it’s inception.

It’s also important to note that there are many paths to success, Europe found a path even if it doesn’t include startups at the same level as the US or other countries. And while it’s also clear that in some cases it does hurt them in the long term as evident by the current dominance of US tech giants it doesn’t mean that the only way out of that is to adopt the SV model.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#85

Post by democracy »

Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #3

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

I don't see why Salmon is a crazy idea - they should be selling other seafood as well - it seems like a quite normal business.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#86

Post by klausjensen »

inter_netuser wrote: post #77
lampe3 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

I looked up Hyperthymic/hyperthymia, so you don't have to...:

Hyperthymic temperament, or hyperthymia ... is a proposed personality type characterized by an exceptionally, or in some cases, abnormally positive mood and disposition. It is generally defined by increased energy, vividness and enthusiasm for life activities, as opposed to dysthymia.

(from wikipedia)

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#87

Post by goodpoint »

jonathankoren wrote: post #9

Survivor bias is a thing. It reminds me of all the stories of the young college drop out with the successful company… that’s been funded by their rich parents.

Not only that, but many billionaires came from influential families with political connections, e.g. bill gates.

Next thing, the majority of the top 100 billionaires came from families with wealth and education far above average, and from wealthy countries.

Social mobility can be measured and numbers show that the rags-to-riches stories are statistically very rare.

The best success advice is "be lucky" but the narrative of "hard work" is more convenient.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#88

Post by szundi »

lpapez wrote: post #7

Prime example: if you go to any article about "OKR methodology" you will find the authors stating that it was OKRs that made Google what it is. If your manager sees such an article, you will be switching to OKRs instantly.

Funny that OKRs got so popular just when Intel is slipping.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#89

Post by bitwize »

WalterBright wrote: post #76
lampe3 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

> Some basic strategies:

> 1. stay in school

> 2. don't do drugs

> 3. don't do crimes

You forgot:

4. be born to rich parents

That probably has a greater influence on chances of success than most others.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#90

Post by raman162 »

ChildOfChaos wrote: post #64
lampe3 wrote: post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Yes. I'm starting to see this for myself and now i'm basically decided to ignore a lot of advice after consuming a lot of it. Instead just to have a few goals and spend time in reflection to decide if they are still what I want and how that is working for me, what I need to do to get closer to them etc and let that decide the best routines. So many things I hear that are apparently the answer to everything just doesn…

You're definitely right, advice shouldn't be taken as gospel. We definitely need to have some sort of self reflection and analysis to figure out if things are benefiting the things that really matter most to us
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