11–20 of 265 posts
Maybe we need this kind of optimistic bias in order to get anything new done. The road to every improvement is littered with failures, whose trying and failing was nevertheless necessary to the overall success.
Maybe we need this kind of optimistic bias in order to get anything new done. The road to every improvement is littered with failures, whose trying and failing was nevertheless necessary to the overall success.
This is exactly right. This kind of optimism is (usually) individually irrational, but extremely beneficial for the collective. Every time the world moves forward it's because some over-confident idiot bets everything on a hare brained idea. It's almost always ruinous, but on a societal level, the successes more than make up for all the failures.
Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…
I think there's definitely a lot to learn from success stories, but being critical and actively engaging with counterfactuals is the key to getting that benefit.
Prime example: if you go to any article about "OKR methodology" you will find the authors stating that it was OKRs that made Google what it is. If your manager sees such an article, you will be switching to OKRs instantly.
>OKRs Today I learned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OKR
Wrote an essay a few years back on how to critically dissect a success story: https://invertedpassion.com/how-to-critically-dissect-a-succ... I think there's definitely a lot to learn from success stories, but being critical and actively engaging with counterfactuals is the key to getting that benefit.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A SaaS company, Salmon as a Service, providing next day delivery of fresh salmon, when the same thing can be bought at the local store. If "fresh" really means caught on the day before, I would use this service. The "fresh" salmon in supermarkets is usually several days old.
Nope, this was from the same supplier as used by the supermarket. In fairness to them it might have been one day fresher than the stuff you get in the shop alright.
One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a shooting once so it must be a unsafe country.
You can find examples like that everywhere.
It makes sense that we also have that bias when it comes to success stories.
Plus with the social media culture of "Do thing X" and you will be successful.
I see that all around: Write a paper journal and you will be successful. Wake up early and you will be successful. Read a bazillion books a year and you will be successful. Read my book and you will be successful. Listen to that podcast and you will be successful. Start a shitty idea startup and sell it after X years and you will be successful.
In the end success is not only hard work. Its not only doing thing X. It has so many variables and random points that we can't just replicate someones success story.
Just think about it for a second. As a European reading about US success stories. How much does it help? The (business) culture is totally different. Yes the internet makes it kind of easier but still its just not the same.
Also whats different is that you are not starting at the same time, location, community, knowledge and luck/random level.
So yeah its fun to read these success stories but they should not be your guide of how to become successful yourself.
Does anyone know a site that collects failure stories? Would be nice to check it out.