Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#2Maybe we need this kind of optimistic bias in order to get anything new done. The road to every improvement is littered with failures, whose trying and failing was nevertheless necessary to the overall success.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#3Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories.
I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me.
And for the record, here's some of the ideas that went down in flames...
- An application like a geo-fenced Wikipedia for Android devices, except without any content worth using and charging 5 bucks/month for it.
- A Flickr/Google maps mash up, again charging customers for a product that's executed much better, and free, elsewhere.
- A health start-up targeting a condition that affects 1 in 100k people, usually quite mildly and benignly, but involves surgically implanting a device onto a nerve in the jaw.
- A SaaS company, Salmon as a Service, providing next day delivery of fresh salmon, when the same thing can be bought at the local store.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#4The paper could just as easily be titled "MTurk Participants Respond As If They Believe What They Are Paid to Read."
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#5Maybe we need this kind of optimistic bias in order to get anything new done. The road to every improvement is littered with failures, whose trying and failing was nevertheless necessary to the overall success.
This is exactly right. This kind of optimism is (usually) individually irrational, but extremely beneficial for the collective. Every time the world moves forward it's because some over-confident idiot bets everything on a hare brained idea. It's almost always ruinous, but on a societal level, the successes more than make up for all the failures.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#6Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…
> A SaaS company, Salmon as a Service, providing next day delivery of fresh salmon, when the same thing can be bought at the local store.
If "fresh" really means caught on the day before, I would use this service. The "fresh" salmon in supermarkets is usually several days old.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#7Prime example: if you go to any article about "OKR methodology" you will find the authors stating that it was OKRs that made Google what it is. If your manager sees such an article, you will be switching to OKRs instantly.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#8Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…
> A SaaS company, Salmon as a Service, providing next day delivery of fresh salmon, when the same thing can be bought at the local store. If "fresh" really means caught on the day before, I would use this service. The "fresh" salmon in supermarkets is usually several days old.
Nope, this was from the same supplier as used by the supermarket. In fairness to them it might have been one day fresher than the stuff you get in the shop alright.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#9Survivor bias is a thing.
It reminds me of all the stories of the young college drop out with the successful company… that’s been funded by their rich parents.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#10Prime example: if you go to any article about "OKR methodology" you will find the authors stating that it was OKRs that made Google what it is. If your manager sees such an article, you will be switching to OKRs instantly.
>OKRs
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