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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#211

Post by credit_guy »

rasz wrote: post #200
credit_guy wrote: post #179

Highly recommend "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" by John Mearsheimer. For Russia, annexing (all or part of) Ukraine now is too good a deal to pass. Russia knows that invading with an overwhelming force will result in a virtually bloodless annexation, just like the Taliban took over Afghanistan in a matter of weeks, and just like they themselves took over Crimea. Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of…

>Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of blood, but theory and practice are a bit disconnected when you are a garrison in a city that's being approached by a few tens of thousands of soldiers and a few thousand tanks. Thinks looks different still if 50 other cities surrendered without a fight by the time it's your turn. You have to be really insane. Poles did it at the start of WW2 resisting for a month http…

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not. I think you are, but I simply can't say for sure.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#212

Post by AnimalMuppet »

nullifidian wrote: post #210
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with your point, it's not quite that simple. Putin remembers history, specifically WWII. The Germans launched their invasion from the middle of Poland, and they nearly broke the USSR. Being able to launch it from the eastern edge of Ukraine is a terrifying thought to him. Now, there is exactly zero appetite anywhere in NATO for invading Russia. But Putin doesn't understand that - doesn't understand that…

>it's not quite that simple. It is. >launched their invasion You are reproducing Russian propaganda planted all over the English speaking internet. About Russia's desire to secure itself through buffer zones, when in reality it's just plain old imperialism. Geographical buffer zones and natural borders like mountains are mostly irrelevant for modern air-superiority dominated warfare. It's not 1940s anymore. US expedi…

How is it propaganda that the Nazis invaded Russia? That the jumping-off point was the middle of Poland? That's straight-up fact.

Or are you saying that it's propaganda the Putin is worrying about that? I've never heard them say so, so I don't think it's a common theme of their propaganda.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#213

Post by lr1970 »

estaseuropano wrote: post #156
VictorPath wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone should tell that to the Kosovans who broke off from Serbia 14 years ago, to jubilation in the US and western Europe.

That was a different context though, with ongoing civil war and strife and no foreign takeover but rather a local independence movement. And there is no point debating this here but your summary is very one sided.

> That was a different context though, with ongoing civil war and strife and no foreign takeover

Not quite a take over but NATO bombing of Serbia does count as foreign interference.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#214

Post by lr1970 »

koheripbal wrote: post #82
labster wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crazy idea of the day: why not offer NATO membership to both Ukraine and Russia? Then if either side attacks the other, all the other members are obligated to defend against the aggressor. Entangling alliances are like abstraction. The only thing that solves it is more of it.

Because then nothing protects members from Russia. If two NATO members go to war, there is no clear side to take. Also, Russia does not want to join. They want the USSR back

> If two NATO members go to war, there is no clear side to take.

In fact there was such a historical precedent. Turkey and Greece, both NATO members, fought a war in Northern Cyprus in 1974 [0].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#215

Post by tomjen3 »

smcl wrote: post #153
tomjen3 wrote: post #146

Fuck it. Just announce that the rest of Ukraine is now under NATO protection and then let Russia choose the first move.

Sounds like a really good way to end up embroiled in another pointless war which ruins yet another country

The pride of the Russian navy is at all times accompanied by a tugboat.

Their forces are a joke and we need to stop them before they do something stupid.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#216

Post by alkonaut »

Ygg2 wrote: post #195
alkonaut wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But NATO already has land borders to Russia! In five (more?) countries. NATO has never made a formal “promise” or agreement not to expand. This is a myth that refuses to die it seems. But this is beside the point. Ukraine isn’t a member so can hardly be responsible for what NATO does. Nor is it offered membership. And they were invaded preemptively? This whole line of reasoning that NATO has anything to do with the i…

US made deal with Russia in wake of German unification, not to expand NATO/US into Russia's (USSR) sphere of influence. They violated that treaty repeatedly. Now Russia is betting stirring shit in Ukraine is enough for US to decline. > or is it offered membership. And they were invaded preemptively? Kinda. A member with existing border dispute has little chance of being admitted.

No such promise was made to not expand. That’s a myth.

> Kinda

Has it been formally invited to join, or formally applied? Otherwise they have not.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#217

Post by alkonaut »

bsedlm wrote: post #59
alkonaut wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you gotta take this into account when considering what "Ukraine" wants. Ukraine is a sovereign state with internationally recognized borders. Whether Russia thinks that Russia is “anywhere Russian is spoken” or “Anywhere Russians live” isn’t really relevant. “Ethnic Russians” living in Ukraine are Ukrainians, and no amount of unrest or even mistreatment of those citizens would be legal a cause for military actio…

Which works democratically, there's people in Ukraine who will support Russia and people who will support "the west" The point is also that it's borders are badly drawn, there's an air of civil war to this conflict within Ukraine. ...then again, this is just rando interent opinion and I have no stakes in any of this.

> Which works democratically, there's people in Ukraine who will support Russia and people who will support "the west" The point is also that it's borders are badly drawn, there's an air of civil war to this conflict within Ukraine

Absolutely. And a civil war (which you can argue has been a thing for many years now) is a tragedy. But of course - and this is the whole point - no one crosses a sovereign nations borders to aid a side in a civil war, without a UN resolution to do so. And Russia not only actively supports separatists in eastern ukraine, it also more or less started this conflict AND annexed Crimea.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#218

Post by skinkestek »

scottLobster wrote: post #168
tomjen3 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Difference, at least with regard to China/Taiwan, is timeline. Russia could likely steamroll much of Ukraine in a short period of time, and the US/NATO has few assets available for immediate response to hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. The conflict could potentially be over before any meaningful military response could be mounted outside of what Ukraine can muster (which compared to the Russians only goes so…

The Russians have a bunch of planes as well, not to mention sophisticated land based air defenses already in Eastern Ukraine. Poland recently ran a bunch of military exercises simulating a Russian invasion through Belarus, and in the words of one Polish general the results were "worse than 1939" https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/11/09/pola-n09.html If NATO declares war on Russia, that also immediately expands the…

> If NATO declares war on Russia, that also immediately expands the front line from Norway, down into the Baltics, all of which would have to be defended from Russian retaliation. Doing that and fighting a full scale invasion of Ukraine would be the largest European Conflict since WWII.

Well, that obviously goes both ways. Russia will also have to defend itself all the way from the north to the south.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#219

Post by nullifidian »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #212
nullifidian wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it's not quite that simple. It is. >launched their invasion You are reproducing Russian propaganda planted all over the English speaking internet. About Russia's desire to secure itself through buffer zones, when in reality it's just plain old imperialism. Geographical buffer zones and natural borders like mountains are mostly irrelevant for modern air-superiority dominated warfare. It's not 1940s anymore. US expedi…

How is it propaganda that the Nazis invaded Russia? That the jumping-off point was the middle of Poland? That's straight-up fact. Or are you saying that it's propaganda the Putin is worrying about that? I've never heard them say so, so I don't think it's a common theme of their propaganda.

>Or are you saying that it's propaganda the Putin is worrying about that?

The propaganda insists that that kind of thinking is still relevant in 2022 and that Russian elite truly believes that, and not using it as an excuse for imperialistic/revanchist expansion.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#220

Post by raxxorrax »

metabagel wrote: post #5
labrador wrote: post #2

I fully support the sovereignty of Ukraine, but I understand the Russian position from watching Prof. John Mearsheimer lectures, particularly this one: Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 John Mearsheimer John Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distingui…

You can't support the sovereignty of Ukraine while also supporting Russia's hegemony over Ukraine. Ukraine has the right to defend itself against Russian aggression and to seek alliances which can help to that end. The Russian autocracy views democracy as a threat. This is really no different than Germany, prior to WW2, seeking to dominate the countries around it. Some of those countries had ethnic Germans living the…

That is true but there is a history. While it is a prominent Kremlin talking point, there is a civil conflict in Ukraine. The initial reason was that some wanted free trade agreements with the EU while others did not, because it would mean their industry breaking down due to more competitive European alternatives and investors buying their infrastructure.

But this is not an ethnic or cultural conflict. You have Russians and Ukrainians on both fronts of this conflict.

While most Ukrainians are nationalists, it is very true though that the Maidan factions is vastly more interested in democracy and the Anti-Maidan one, or whatever they call themselves now.

More info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas

Ukraine is complicated. You have to read up a lot. Probably begin with the orange revolution but even the time before and the relation to the EU and US is important.

To take sides here until the internal conflicts are resolved basically means supporting another proxy war. If it isn't already one because the factions are dependent on outside help to keep up the fight. The south-eastern Russia associated group certainly more so than Kiev and co.

The conflict also hits innocents, the MH17 to Malaysia with a lot of Dutch people got shot down by the Russian associated group.

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