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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#91

Post by dzonga »

dzonga wrote: post #4

I don't blame Russia's stance. I blame the cold war and the US's two pronged approach to most diplomacy matters. NATO was formed to halt the power of the soviet union. once the soviet union fell. NATO should've been disbanded. anyone with a pea of a brain would've seen the consequences of not abandoning nato, and now we're about to pay for those mistakes.

as a follow up, I should add that I'm not advocating for Ukraine to be invaded. War is a racket. I'm advocating for things military alliances like Nato etc to be abandoned in times of peace.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#92

Post by JumpCrisscross »

wrinkl3 wrote: post #85
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "why now" Armenia just lost a war [1]. Minsk is swallowed by protests [2]. Kazakhstan is now facing protests [3]. That's half the CSTO members [4]. Meanwhile, Georgia and Ukraine are reminders to disheveled Russians that democracy for former Soviet members can work. (Also Nord Stream [5].) The cause for action begins and ends with domestic politics vis-a-vis Putin, who has created a system where losing power means…

Eh, Armenia losing its war wasn't particularly detrimental to the Russian interests in the Transcaucasia - if anything it helped bring Pashinyan back into the fold, as evidenced by him embracing CSTO during the Kazakh unrest. Minsk is also hardly "swallowed by protests" right now, they've succeeded in driving all resistance back underground. I agree that the post-Soviet world is in a bit of a crisis but it's not part…

Fair enough. I do think taken together, and the observation that absent Moscow's military support Minsk and new Almaty could have gone quite differently, they would be worrying to someone in Putin's shoes.

Deploying the Russian army to Kazakhstan is much less risky than deploying it in Moscow. A small shift in the balance of power and the guns are aimed at you.

That said, we in the West have a long history of overcomplicating the Kremlin's thinking. Perhaps he is just going senile.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#93

Post by [deleted] »

Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #41
chasd00 wrote: post #11

why is NATO a threat? Has NATO ever started a conflict, seized territory, or imposed sanctions? Genuinely asking, I pretty ignorant here.

Russia has always in been conflict with Western powers, and has been invaded on several occasions.

[deleted]

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#94

Post by shashurup »

nullifidian wrote: post #35
dzonga wrote: post #4

I don't blame Russia's stance. I blame the cold war and the US's two pronged approach to most diplomacy matters. NATO was formed to halt the power of the soviet union. once the soviet union fell. NATO should've been disbanded. anyone with a pea of a brain would've seen the consequences of not abandoning nato, and now we're about to pay for those mistakes.

>I don't blame Russia's stance. As a Russian I say you are completely wrong. The current crisis is entirely manufactured by Putin and his authoritarian needs, which are contrary to the actual needs of the Russian people. The Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, and there isn't much difference in nuke flight time between a launch from Latvia or from Kharkiv, so the entire premise that Ukraine potentially joining NATO so…

> b) to fullfill the imperialistic need that has been propagandized out of every hole for the last 15+ years

I honestly cannot grasp where does this narrative come from. I live in Russia and read local media and I don't see the idea being pushed. Putin himself once considered USSR disbanding as catastrophic but nothng beyond that.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#95

Post by VictorPath »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #17
sc68cal wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. and this is a view shared by prominent US national security officials, that it is the United States that has caused this crisis. https://theanalysis.news/is-nato-for-security-or-aggression-... Remember, it was the United States that broke the promise to not expand NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union. > Paul Jay >Crazy! Larry, how much of this is driven essentially, really by what domestic politics, th…

> it was the United States that broke the promise to not expand NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union This promise is a myth [1]. At best, it was an informal statement by some guy in the U.S. government [2]. This has been blown out of proportion beyond any semblance to reality by Putin's propaganda. And if it had happened, it would have been an agreement with the Soviet Union. Which does not exist. Russia, in 1994,…

> some guy in the U.S. government

With "some guy in the government" being the US secretary of state.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#96

Post by nullifidian »

esarbe wrote: post #66
nullifidian wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't blame Russia's stance. As a Russian I say you are completely wrong. The current crisis is entirely manufactured by Putin and his authoritarian needs, which are contrary to the actual needs of the Russian people. The Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, and there isn't much difference in nuke flight time between a launch from Latvia or from Kharkiv, so the entire premise that Ukraine potentially joining NATO so…

Is there any reliable (international) source for Russian internal affairs that is not tainted by state propaganda? Can you give a recommendation?

Understanding a country without knowing the language/culture is an endeavor fraught with failure in my opinion. The only way is to learn the language, learn the cultural differences(preferably at least partially from "field experience", not that it's advisable as of late), and read the same things a curious Russian would.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#97

Post by stfods »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32
sc68cal wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citing a blog post by the Brookings Institution is very funny to me. They were one of many think tanks in Washington that built the intellectual groundwork to justify the expansion of NATO in the first place.

> Citing a blog post by the Brookings Institution is very funny to me There is no shortage of sources on the ambiguity of this alleged promise [1][2]. More critically, there is a total absence of sources from Putin. Because he doesn't have any. Because when nations agree to things, they do so by issuing public declarations and/or signing treaties. [1] https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017... [2…

Absolutely, also that's Russia who doesn't respect even signed agreements. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Frie...

.. signed in 1997, which fixed the principle of strategic partnership, the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, and respect for territorial integrity and mutual commitment not to use its territory to harm the security of each other.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#98

Post by avmich »

elcritch wrote: post #34
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

> The US and NATO countries have done worse for less.

Care to provide examples? Crimea annexation was almost bloodless, right, but annexation nevertheless - ?

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#99

Post by JumpCrisscross »

remarkEon wrote: post #83
vizzah wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no imminent danger to those inhabitans when Russia annexed. They just seized the opportunity to take back important xUSSR territory. The inhabitants are mostly happy, though, as they were promised new horizons and no mandatory Ukrainian language, which they never spoken. All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) lang…

Russia has controlled Crimea since the 18th century. It's not an artifact of Soviet Union. >All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) language, Donbas would return back in a blink. And Crimea might follow. What? History goes back farther than the 20th century.

> Russia has controlled Crimea since the 18th century. It's not an artifact of Soviet Union

So Moscow should be handed back to Ukraine, the late seat of the Kievan Rus' [1]? Or perhaps the whole thing goes to Mongolia.

Originalist interpretations of border disputes are infinitely flexible, and justification for constant warfare.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#100

Post by consumer451 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56
danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

> "why now" Armenia just lost a war [1]. Minsk is swallowed by protests [2]. Kazakhstan is now facing protests [3]. That's half the CSTO members [4]. Meanwhile, Georgia and Ukraine are reminders to disheveled Russians that democracy for former Soviet members can work. (Also Nord Stream [5].) The cause for action begins and ends with domestic politics vis-a-vis Putin, who has created a system where losing power means…

> The cause for action begins and ends with domestic politics vis-a-vis Putin

Realizing this has been very important in my attempts at understanding Russian behavior. However, even after years of attempting to internalize this knowledge I still have a reactionary response at first... then I remember this.

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