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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#71

Post by jeroenhd »

esarbe wrote: post #51
7rm0LFlU6t8NnW1 wrote: post #12

USA annexes Hawaii, no one bats an eye. Russia annexes Crimea, everyone loses their minds.

I guess that's sarcasm? Because I honestly cannot tell. Yes, the U.S used its imperialist power to annex Hawai'i in 1897. That was before most of the modern foundations of international law - in particular article 2(4) of Chapter 1 of the United Nations Articles[0] - were put in place. No excuse, but still - different times. There are many aspects of U.S. foreign policy I positively abhor. But I'm not alone; the coup…

While you're technically correct in that the age of colonialism is over, I'm not so sure if the US covertly and overtly overthrowing governments they don't like is much better than the plain and simple invasion Russia executed in Ukraine.

Either would be worse for the victims if Russia did it, but I'd much rather "just" become American or Russian than have foreign sponsors set up religious extremists to stage a rebellion and overthrow the government.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#72

Post by yongjik »

kaczordon wrote: post #48
bumby wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. I mean, isn't this also the tactic used in the late 1800s in the western U.S. to give a reason to pacify Native Americans? Promote U.S. citizens into frontier homesteads and then use the military to protect them/annex land?

Not sure why’re your bringing the U.S. into this right now to bash it. If anything increased U.S. military presence in Poland is sorely needed.

I don't think GP is trying to bash the US: they're just pointing out it's "the oldest trick in the book." Obviously that doesn't mean it's OK that Russia is doing it.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#73

Post by JumpCrisscross »

loourr wrote: post #67

I feel that these articles rarely give any perspective on Russia's issue which is that Ukraine joining NATO would be a violation of prior agreements and would result in armaments being placed at their boarder which they view as a risk and security breach. The US is basically saying we don't care and we are going to do it despite your objections and then pretending Russia threatening military action is unilateral host…

> Ukraine joining NATO would be a violation of prior agreements

This purported promise is a myth, see my comments here [1].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29924836

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#74

Post by JumpCrisscross »

arminiusreturns wrote: post #64
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> from the Russian point of view, offering NATO membership to Ukraine is an act of agression and they've been wrecking Ukraine for this ever since One, Ukraine hasn't been invited to join NATO. Two, even if NATO had never entertained the idea, I'm sure Putin would pitch the existence of hats and teacups as clear evidence of Western aggression against Russia.

See I listen to people who know what they are talking about on this topic, people like Ray McGovern the former head of the soviet desk for the CIA, and I find their comments refreshingly nuanced, explaining things like how we promised Russia we wouldnt do an eastward expansion of nato, etc. ...and then I see comments like yours that just seem to want to make Russia into this mustache twirling always evil villian and…

> how we promised Russia we wouldnt do an eastward expansion of nato

This purported promise is a myth, see my comments here [1]. (TL; DR No treaty or public comments. Russia, on the other hand, signed a treaty promising not to invade Ukraine when she denuclearised. Talk of broken promises is a red herring.)

Russia has a realpolitik interest in creating buffer nations between it and the West. What it's doing--invading Crimea and now threatening to take the rest--doesn't further that goal. It does, however, serve Putin's political agenda.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29924836

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#75

Post by finiteseries »

metabagel wrote: post #5
labrador wrote: post #2

I fully support the sovereignty of Ukraine, but I understand the Russian position from watching Prof. John Mearsheimer lectures, particularly this one: Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 John Mearsheimer John Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distingui…

You can't support the sovereignty of Ukraine while also supporting Russia's hegemony over Ukraine. Ukraine has the right to defend itself against Russian aggression and to seek alliances which can help to that end. The Russian autocracy views democracy as a threat. This is really no different than Germany, prior to WW2, seeking to dominate the countries around it. Some of those countries had ethnic Germans living the…

Mearsheimer doesn’t even recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine, it’s realist vs liberal schools of thought (with realism having been sidelined for decades in the west).

There’s a Foreign Affairs article version instead of the hour long random YouTube lecture version: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t...

In a nutshell of what it’s like: One also hears the claim that Ukraine has the right to determine whom it wants to ally with and the Russians have no right to prevent Kiev from joining the West. This is a dangerous way for Ukraine to think about its foreign policy choices. The sad truth is that might often makes right when great-power politics are at play. Abstract rights such as self-determination are largely meaningless when powerful states get into brawls with weaker states. … Even if one rejects this analysis, however, and believes that Ukraine has the right to petition to join the EU and NATO, the fact remains that the United States and its European allies have the right to reject these requests.

Guy did argue for Ukraine to keep nukes in the 90s though, it’s just a much more mechanistic type of thinking.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#76

Post by georgeecollins »

labster wrote: post #7
nickpp wrote: post #3

It's funny when the aggressor is "negotiating" to attack or not. The biggest bully in the region feeling "threatened" by its neighbours seeking any possible way to protect themselves from it. Like a government-level "Why are you hitting yourself?"

Crazy idea of the day: why not offer NATO membership to both Ukraine and Russia? Then if either side attacks the other, all the other members are obligated to defend against the aggressor. Entangling alliances are like abstraction. The only thing that solves it is more of it.

The problem is that at that point the USA, Canada, France, Italy would be obligated to defend Russia if it was attacked by sending in its forces. This is already the problem we face in the Baltic States. In theory you can say you will go to war if Estonia is attacked. But if you are Italy or Canada how popular is a war in Estonia going to be if your citizens are dying? There would be a lot of pressure to pull out.

Once the guarantee of NATO becomes a maybe then you start having a lot of incentives for the members to make their own agreements that they can depend on. Then you would be back to regional alliances and from there rivalries. Germany's security agreement partners may not agree with Turkey's security agreement partners about what to do in Syria. Part of what made NATO work was the common interest and values of the members. As you spread it you loose that cohesion.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#77

Post by dnautics »

elcritch wrote: post #34
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

Without defending russia: the same argument does apply for selected parts of ukraine that still have not been yet annexed by russia.

I wonder how long it will take for russia to get tired of subsidizing crimea and they will beg to go back to the ukraine.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#78

Post by JumpCrisscross »

The_Colonel wrote: post #40
danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

"Why now?" is also a question I was wondering about. But also, "What's the goal?". They obviously can't occupy the whole country (Ukraine is large and populous, that would be way too expensive). Do they want the eastern part (with a big Russian minority), land bridge to Crimea, or just extend Donbas/Luhansk or just reheat the conflict, destabilize the Ukraine? It has to be something worthy. Ukrainian army is in a muc…

> "What's the goal?"

Reinstate a pliant dictator, like the one who was removed in 2014 [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#79

Post by metabagel »

jhrozek wrote: post #65
metabagel wrote: post #38

Kremlin File is an excellent podcast primarily about Russia's use of hybrid warfare to advance its agenda. https://kremlinfile.com/

That sounds great, thanks I subscribed to it! Do you listen to any other similar podcasts you could recommend?

This book seems to be very good, although I've only just started it.

Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West by Catherine Belton

https://www.amazon.com/Putins-People-Took-Back-Russia/dp/037...

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#80

Post by koheripbal »

vizzah wrote: post #54
elcritch wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

There was no imminent danger to those inhabitans when Russia annexed. They just seized the opportunity to take back important xUSSR territory. The inhabitants are mostly happy, though, as they were promised new horizons and no mandatory Ukrainian language, which they never spoken. All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) lang…

But don't they have the right of self-determination if they want to join Russia?
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