DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test • Hacker News Board

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#81

Post by muzika » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 12:34 PM UTC

jjav wrote: post #27

anonporridge wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, still, try to compare it to equivalent brands and socio-economic groups. My point is that anti Tesla self driving sentiment is almost exclusively driven by emotion, not hard data. Show me the data that justifies why I need to be afraid of public FSD.

It is well-known that Teslas auto-brake-check cars at highway speeds (not with that intention of course, but same outcome). This is behavior for which non-AI drivers get arrested, for good reason. That's enough reason to be very wary of Teslas on the road. There are others, but even one is enough.

AFAIK they have mostly resolved the 'phantom braking' issue now.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#82

Post by supperburg » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

mwill wrote: post #52

Rygian wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "having a tendency to," how often exactly does that happen? Have you been able to watch Twitter videos of all driving situations FSD is exposed to, or was your research biased to "videos that get a lot of views," itself a subset of "FSD driving that was caught on camera"?

I think it's fair to view Telsa's FSD as a single (very prolific) driver. If there were multiple viral videos of a single person veering into oncoming traffic, I wouldn't care how many hours of video there was of them NOT veering into oncoming traffic there was tbh, I would still like to see some intervention.

I am Elon fanboy number 987689. I’m a major in the Elon fanboy army, bootlicker division. I’m a mindless idiot who has no thoughts of his own. I am here to report to you from the scripted list of thoughts I am allowed to have from Tesla HQ. According to the Tesla chip in my brain, a real driver who drove as many miles as FSD would probably have many accidents too given the miles. FSD isn’t one driver because it’s constantly changing and updating, and not appreciating this is why people get it wrong so often — FSD of just a few months ago was night and day different and much worse. For each twitter video of FSD making a mistake there are 1000 videos of it demonstrating the fact that it is bar none the most advanced self driving system in the world by a mile. It’s just a fact and readily apparent if you simply watch the videos of the various systems. As long as your hand is kept on the wheel then FSD seems to be very safe even in the event of an intervention, most twitter videos they are doing it wrong frankly. It’s a fact that if they decide to destroy FSD with regulation that it will be a massive setback to self driving and also one of the coolest projects in the world right now. I would rather they didn’t.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#83

Post by the8472 » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 1:23 PM UTC

omegalulw wrote: post #75

the8472 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that's not how you make reasonable policy. That's just listening to your gut reaction to such a video. Gut reactions do not work at this scale because this "single prolific driver" drives far more than a human in their lifetime. Therefore even rare events become common. Put a different way, as driven distances goes up the probability of having some scary event approaches 1. What we want to know at which rate it a…

And are you advocating that the public policy be to allow these self driving tests without knowing how reckless they are?

No, I'm saying we should look at the actual data to make a decision to see if they're worse than human drivers and whether potential future payoffs of improved self-drivings are not worth running the experiment any further without modifications. Additionally we should also look at the first derivative, even if the numbers are bad today they might be on a trajectory where they'll be great soon.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#84

Post by Pyramus » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 1:58 PM UTC

the8472 wrote: post #83

omegalulw wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And are you advocating that the public policy be to allow these self driving tests without knowing how reckless they are?

No, I'm saying we should look at the actual data to make a decision to see if they're worse than human drivers and whether potential future payoffs of improved self-drivings are not worth running the experiment any further without modifications. Additionally we should also look at the first derivative, even if the numbers are bad today they might be on a trajectory where they'll be great soon.

So why does Tesla not release the actual data?

That would likely convince the DMV, and opponents. Just think of the win in terms of PR.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#85

Post by sidibe » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 2:08 PM UTC

martindbp wrote: post #56

erulabs wrote: post #32

This topic aside, I guess I just feel like if the Hacker community is saying “don’t build things! It’s dangerous! What if someone gets hurt! Go DMV! Put a stop to that!”, then maybe I don’t want to be a Hacker anymore.

Wholeheartedly agree. I don't give much weight to the negativity on HN anymore. VR bad, crypto bad, Tesla bad, autonomous vehicles bad, billionaires in space bad. To me it's pretty clear that Tesla's audatiousness in pushing FSD could move up the advent of L4 by years, possibly saving hundreds of thousands of lives, for very little downside. In fact, I believe human+FSD is already safer on average, just due to the fa…

> To me it's pretty clear that Tesla's audatiousness in pushing FSD could move up the advent of L4 by years, possibly saving hundreds of thousands of lives, for very little downside. In fact, I believe human+FSD is already safer on average, just due to the fact that FSD requires the driver to watch the road.

I have no idea why that's clear to you. Seems to me from the FSD Beta videos that not only Tesla isn't in the same ballpark yet as the companies that are going for offering geofenced L4, but it doesn't seem to be improving much. Then there's the fact they've handcuffed themselves by widely promising/releasing the product with the hardware customers already have.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#86

Post by the8472 » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 2:10 PM UTC

Pyramus wrote: post #84

the8472 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm saying we should look at the actual data to make a decision to see if they're worse than human drivers and whether potential future payoffs of improved self-drivings are not worth running the experiment any further without modifications. Additionally we should also look at the first derivative, even if the numbers are bad today they might be on a trajectory where they'll be great soon.

So why does Tesla not release the actual data? That would likely convince the DMV, and opponents. Just think of the win in terms of PR.

They should, no disagreement there. But as outlined above people should also look at such data carefully.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#87

Post by dekhn » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 3:20 PM UTC

aaomidi wrote: post #66

mavhc wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA drives 3.225 trillion miles per year, and kills 38000 people, that's about 1 death per 100 million miles. According to the anti Tesla site above, Tesla cars kill 1 person per 200 million miles. That's not accounting for deaths from pollution though

That's....honestly bad.

1 death in 100 million miles driven? that's amazingly good!

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#88

Post by dekhn » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 3:22 PM UTC

Thorentis wrote: post #35

erulabs wrote: post #32

This topic aside, I guess I just feel like if the Hacker community is saying “don’t build things! It’s dangerous! What if someone gets hurt! Go DMV! Put a stop to that!”, then maybe I don’t want to be a Hacker anymore.

I didn't realise part of being a hacker was being okay with endangering lives.

many people who build computer systems build systems that endanger lives. It's a tradeoff in modern society.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#89

Post by perfectstorm » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 4:13 PM UTC

good. Tesla owners have been complaining about phantom braking for a while now with the new update. I would hate to be behind a Tesla that phantom brakes in the middle of the highway even if I come to a complete stop, the person behind me may not stop in time.

Re: DMV ‘revisiting’ its approach to regulating Tesla’s public self-driving test

#90

Post by mavhc » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 4:23 PM UTC

kevingadd wrote: post #69

mavhc wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3000 people die every day from Human Driven Cars

Until teslas don't require constant human attention and frequent interventions, this comparison doesn't matter. A human is still technically in control of the car.

So they should work on doing that as soon as possible?