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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#31

Post by systemvoltage »

nradov wrote: post #23
rhcom2 wrote: post #12

Is there a way, outside full transparency from China in some "perestroika" type situation which seems highly unlikely, we will ever really know for sure?

It's also possible that the Chinese authorities themselves don't even know exactly what happened. Despite their authoritarian surveillance state they aren't omniscient.

Massive push for gag orders and having to sign in red ink over “severe punishment” for discussing anything related to COVID across the entire science community in China? Every virus related paper must be approved by CCP before publishing it or they’ll face severe consequences.

I have by default zero trust in CCP. So they would need to go out of their way to disprove it. Even then, I would question forgery and fake made up data to show to the world. Ethics goes out of the window when it’s party’s reputation.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#32

Post by johncena33 »

sudosysgen wrote: post #22
xqcgrek2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes - an animal host or reservoir is found. It's unusual after 2 years none has been found.

There are many animal hosts or reservoirs. The issue is that it's not obvious wether they got it from or gave it to humans. You really need the most direct ancestor virus.

AFAIK the known animal reservoirs got it from humans. Do you know any animal reservoir that we still don't know how the animals have got it?

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#34

Post by Jimmc414 »

xqcgrek2 wrote: post #8
Jimmc414 wrote: post #3

[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…

This is how science works in the post-WW2 era. Most prominent scientists (in any field) seldom do science when they attain their stature -- they manage people (students and postdocs), and many become politicians for their institution or lab to attain more funding.

I'm curious, what effect do you see WW2 having on science itself? That is not intended to be argumentative, I'd like to hear your opinion.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#35

Post by awb »

Some additional perspectives:

Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/

An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#36

Post by mensetmanusman »

nradov wrote: post #15
karpierz wrote: post #4

Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?

If a virus essentially identical to the original wild type SARS-CoV-2 is found in a wild animal population that would be fairly strong evidence against the lab leak hypothesis, although not an absolute disproof. Researchers have looked and not found such, so it remains an open question. So far the closest we've come is a bat virus in Laos but it has some significant genetic differences. https://www.nature.com/article…

Couldn’t someone just inject the original virus into a nearby animal population and say ‘look what we found!’ ?

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#37

Post by helloworld »

Mandatum wrote: post #26
Jimmc414 wrote: post #3

[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…

Collins hasn't done anything except management and policy for the last 30 years. The closest he's gotten to science is writing books I'd put in the autobiography or philosophy section and tag it "theistic evolution".

At least as of 2011: "Collins remains actively involved in research, studying the molecular genetics of diseases including cancer and adult-onset diabetes. His group also is developing animal models of genetic disorders to test potential therapeutic approaches." [0]

[0] Kresge N, Simoni RD, Hill RL. The Molecular Genetics of Cystic Fibrosis: The Work of Francis Collins. J Biol Chem. 2011 Aug 12;286(32):e8–9. doi: 10.1074/jbc.O111.000248. PMCID: PMC3151108

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#38

Post by systemvoltage »

nradov wrote: post #15
karpierz wrote: post #4

Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?

If a virus essentially identical to the original wild type SARS-CoV-2 is found in a wild animal population that would be fairly strong evidence against the lab leak hypothesis, although not an absolute disproof. Researchers have looked and not found such, so it remains an open question. So far the closest we've come is a bat virus in Laos but it has some significant genetic differences. https://www.nature.com/article…

No. The only way to disprove lab leak theory is for the CCP to disclose the WIV databases and records of what they were studying. Otherwise, just because it was found in some animal doesn’t quite disprove it. WIV was actively collecting virus samples from mammals for research funded by the US tax payer money through Eco Health Alliance.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#39

Post by colordrops »

Sunspark wrote: post #7
karpierz wrote: post #4

Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?

Disprove it? No. We do innocent until proven guilty in our jurisprudence.

This isn't a US legal case; it's a scientific inquiry. Either lab leak or zoonosis is plausible, so you can't say one isn't the default until the other is proven. You don't flip a coin and say "heads until proven tails".

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#40

Post by Reason077 »

nradov wrote: post #23
rhcom2 wrote: post #12

Is there a way, outside full transparency from China in some "perestroika" type situation which seems highly unlikely, we will ever really know for sure?

It's also possible that the Chinese authorities themselves don't even know exactly what happened. Despite their authoritarian surveillance state they aren't omniscient.

It's easy to make sure you don't know what you don't want to know if you don't go looking for it.
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