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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
21–30 of 833 posts
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#22Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?
Yes - an animal host or reservoir is found. It's unusual after 2 years none has been found.
There are many animal hosts or reservoirs. The issue is that it's not obvious wether they got it from or gave it to humans. You really need the most direct ancestor virus.
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#23Is there a way, outside full transparency from China in some "perestroika" type situation which seems highly unlikely, we will ever really know for sure?
It's also possible that the Chinese authorities themselves don't even know exactly what happened. Despite their authoritarian surveillance state they aren't omniscient.
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#24Alina Chan on this: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1480947600199229444
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#25[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…
> warned it could damage “international harmony”. I've never understood the argument that people would want to suppress the (accidental) lab-leak hypothesis out of a desire to protect the image of China. If the lab-leak hypothesis is incorrect, that doesn't change the fact that the virus originated in that country, it just means that the virus emerged from a wet market. I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country…
>> I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country's image is more harmed by accusations of having backwards cultural and food habits
You forget the politics. CCP can never be wrong or do wrong. That would risk their rule. I'm pretty sure they would rather see the country burning than admitting guilt and incompetence. You can see that kind of selfish behaviour at most of the leaders(I would dare to say even in recent US history) but in an authoritan system this is made worse/more dramatic b/c there is no alternative(i.e opposition to replace leaders in a peaceful way)
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#26[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…
Collins hasn't done anything except management and policy for the last 30 years. The closest he's gotten to science is writing books I'd put in the autobiography or philosophy section and tag it "theistic evolution".
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#27Alina Chan on this: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1480947600199229444
She's also on HN as of a few days ago, fingers crossed she chimes in here: https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=Ayjchan
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#28[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…
> warned it could damage “international harmony”.
"international harmony" is just a front for hiding self-interest. Many elites, including the said virologists and bureaucrats, have significant financial or other ties with China. That's why any discussion of China and pandemics is very quickly buried with bullying and force [1].
[1]: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3V-gdWQAkWyJS?format=jpg&name=...
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#29Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?
If a virus essentially identical to the original wild type SARS-CoV-2 is found in a wild animal population that would be fairly strong evidence against the lab leak hypothesis, although not an absolute disproof. Researchers have looked and not found such, so it remains an open question. So far the closest we've come is a bat virus in Laos but it has some significant genetic differences. https://www.nature.com/article…
Also Ecohealth Alliance and WIV collected viruses in Laos. So in terms of natural origin vs. lab leak the viruses found in Laos don't increase probability on either side.
Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt
#30Certainly could hurt. Saying anything related to China at that moment could sound like conspiracy theory, xenophobia or racism, certainly bringing in question the reputation and professionalism of these scientists.
Now... "Scientists believed..." Considering the realm of professional scientists, beliefs have no value and should be guarded unless sufficient evidence arises. They behaved well by not announcing it.
Their behavior maybe questionable if it has had any negative impact on the awareness of the problem. But that is another matter and not something one should omit if the problem, initially, turned out the be clearly serious. AFAIK, that was not the case.