661–670 of 793 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
School is not supposed to be daycare for the economy...
Yes it is. School, along with the other things it does, is a public daycare service for children aged 5-18. That's one of the main reasons public school is good.
Freddie de Boer just wrote something on his Substack about this - https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/many-kids-dont-have-a-w... The quick takeaway is that school is that for the most vulnerable kids, school is about a lot more than education. Taking school away from those kids can be much more damaging than many people realize. It seems to me like that right strategy would be to just say something like: We encourag…
give kids the chance to choose to go to school or not ... most won't go and then outside of learning the biggest benefit of socializing/making freinds/fully enjoy being human which to me is with others is lost. People at my job have given the same choose and really no one goes in. COVID is scourge to the world ... whose is to blame for it? Does any one country benefit from it? What's going on with Covid in China ...…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't fault any schools for struggling from March 2020 to June 2020, being thrown into the pandemic and remote learning with no warning. But I was absolutely astonished to see that most administrators took the summer of 2020 off, assuming that everybody would be back in school that fall and things would be normal. They wasted several months of time that could've been spent planning contingencies and how remote lear…
I'll be honest, I do not expect creativity or outside the box thinking from administrators. Maybe this is the audience here but they are not creatives, they are bureaucrats -- think bogons from hitchhikers guide to the galaxy and you are on the right track.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of what you say is just plain wrong. - Masking is highly effective and just a bit inconvenient. - Lockdowns are extremely effective just very expensive. - Vaccines are very effective even against transmission. - Nobody is aiming for 0 Covid anymore (except some Australians and China I guess), but getting through the winter wave without too many fellow citizens dead should be something we spend some effort on. Co…
"Lockdowns" delay spread - well, actually they just force essential workers to get sick first - but what's the point of delaying it? You'll just get it once you open up again. (Somewhat good right now because we're waiting for more antivirals/clearing out winter flu cases, but still not worth the cost.) China is still trying it but I expect that to fail in a few weeks. Australia has given up on it. The real question…
Just wait for it. New case numbers have been multiplied by 10 in less than a week to reach over 8000 new cases yesterday.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's an inability to deal with risk out of all proportion to the reality it actually poses. Are we reading the same post? The kids are going to school. The faculty is so sick that they don't have enough people to run the school. > And children his age are not at a great risk to begin with. Honestly, do people think children just exist in isolation? They have older parents at home. They have older teachers in the cl…
> The faculty is so sick that they don't have enough people to run the school. This depends on how you define "so sick". Tested positive? Yes. Hospitalized? I bet not all (or > 1.8% [1]) of them. I notice when verbiage sensationalizes COVID. The OP, I believe, is also sensitive to this. > Honestly, do people think children just exist in isolation? This is the primary argument. Your two viewpoints are not mutually exc…
Students shoudn't be tested for COVID. It should be allowed to spread until localized herd immunity is established. Most of the public over-estimates the risk of COVID, by 10 to 100 times: https://kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_o... These over-reactions, and anxiety, along with all of the testing that is caused by, and contributed to the social obsession about it, does more damage to students than…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I don't know much about virology but I understand exponential growth. It looks like the cases are doubling every 2 weeks (edit: I guess this might even be a few days? See [0]). In a few months, almost everyone will get it. In the last two week period, won't half the population catch it? In that case, even with 100% vaccination, hospitalizations would still be 1/20 of half the maximum due to COVID. Right? As people…
Thanks, I actually hadn't heard of a logistic growth curve before (it looks like something I somewhat remember from high school chemistry). Can you recommend anything to read about this that apply it to the pandemic? I guess I'm beyond my math skills here. Reading normal news articles, they warn of increasing cases, but I'd like to see some raw numbers. The report they refer to is too complicated for me to understand…
As for your original question – I've been wondering about the same thing.
My personal back-of-the-envelope calculation was more along the lines of "If the vaccine is 90 % effective (the numbers given for Germany during the Delta wave and before the start of the third round of vaccinations were closer to 90 than to 95 %) in preventing hospitalisation and 75 % (for example) of the population are vaccinated, it means that case numbers in hospitals are 75 % x 1 + 25 % x 10 = 3.25 times higher than they would be with full vaccinations.", though I suppose there are enough holes that could be poked into that calculation, too.
A three-fold reduction in case numbers is nothing to be sneezed at, but on the other hand as long as the spread is still behaving mostly exponentially instead of turning into logistic growth and slowing down again that's only one-and-a-half doubling periods, so not that much of a buffer, either. Of course the vaccines are also somewhat (if not as well as was originally hoped) preventing some spread, so with full vaccination growth rates themselves would also be lower and hospital cases be reduced by more than threefold, but whether that's then enough, who knows?
In the end I decided there's no point in worrying myself further here, because there are too many unknown factors in getting a reasonable result that I can't easily answer and ultimately I have no desire in becoming a full-time epidemiologist.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How lucky you are not having to worry about co-morbidity. I'm sick and tired of people generalizing their own conditions to the entire population. You are not like everyone else. Stop telling other people they don't need to worry.
I'm sick and tired of doom larpers stealing the youth and life experiences of children and teenagers over this nothingness. If _you_ have comorbidities _you_ need to protect yourself.
One of the ways I would personally prefer it done is not needing to send kids to super spreader spaces for no reason, since there is no learning happening as documented by the student in the reddit post, causing them to bring the virus home to their parents / grandparents suffering from co-morbidity or immune system issues.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why?? This is normal and natural.
Within 200 years, the madness we are living through will find its place in the history book next to the Salem witch trials and the War of the Worlds, that is, assuming we live through it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, because of the absurd hyperbole and hysterics associated with Covid. It’s pandemonium precisely because of the hysterics, overreacting, and absurd rules and procedures. We’re seriously treating this like it’s the measles.
This is objectively wrong. It's not 'hyperbole and hysterics', it's the fact that people simply cannot work when sick. Every discussion around covid, about returning to work, about trying to return to normalcy ignores that even among people that are vaccinated covid can and does still hit you hard and can prevent you from working anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Especially if it spreads to other family member…
Half the staff isn’t out sick with Covid. The staff is out due to absurd contact tracing quarantine rules. The staff is also out due to extreme misplaced Covid fears.
…but if half the staff was truly out sick with Covid that would mean we are 1-2 days away from full herd immunity at the school. And so this “crisis” should permanently abate in 1-2 weeks.
I’d expect a full return to normal at these schools by the end of January if what you’re saying is true!