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James Webb is fully deployed

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Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#141
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but NOVA said that running out of fuel ended Kepler.

It worked for 9 years and 7 months, whilst being planned to operate for 3,5 years, so beyond it's expected lifetime then.

And it would have worked for longer if it didn't depend on the fuel!

BTW, I doubt there's enough experience with space hardware to accurately predict it's life, especially since each machine is a one-off.

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#142
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that more researchers have access. Afaik access is shared and researchers have to make a proposal and get it approved before use, which to me suggests some kind of queue

Queueing researchers should be fine given the universe will be around for a while.

Next time you have to wait for your code to compile we'll say "should be fine, computers will be around for a while".

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's a wrong assumption. Significant cost come from the assembly and testing of all the components itself, that you would have to redo entirely. Also if you were to build just 2 or 3 of them, you can't expect any economy of scale. On top of that, the operational cost of JWST is expected to be around 1B$ for it's lifetime, you could expect that to be similar for every single replica you have. And finally, you…

Assuming your figures are correct, you'll get double the data for another 30% cost. If you wait a month before launching #2, if problems appear in #1 (like the telescope mirror was ground improperly) it can be fixed in #2. The operational cost will not double. The same ground facility, equipment, and staff can manage both. If you're buying two identical launches, you can get a quantity discount. > the benefits of a s…

>you'll get double the data for another 30% cost.

Sending just another similar telescope that provides more same typed data (wavelength, angular resolution) is probably not worth it. Spending the same sum for different type of telescope would be better use of the money.

Hubble, Hershel and Webb were are made for different wavelengths, they are complementary.

The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is ready around 2027 and it will be the next revolution. 0.005 arc-seconds compared to 0.1 arc-seconds of JWST. (978 m2 vs 25.4 m2 collecting area)

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#144
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This question comes up in every one of these threads and this is the correct response. If you look at the line items on a build, you might see something like a $200 bolt. It’s not that there was $198 of R&D going into the design of the bolt, it’s that quality management drives the cost. Chain-of-custody, bonding, material testing, witnessing etc. are all part of that effort and they don’t scale like a design spec doe…

If it's a one-off bolt with a custom design, it will likely cost thousands of dollars.

The GPs point was that subsequent builds would make it no longer a one-off design. My point is that there are other substantial cost drivers that break their assumptions. My analogy of a $200 bolt was not meant for a custom design, but the point stands regardless.

(I’ve worked in a custom machine shop for aerospace, and depending on the tolerances, the actual build is typically not thousands until you factor in all the aspects in my previous post)

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not entirely true. Any reasonably complex system will almost certainly have single points of failure, including airliners. Those single points of failures might be very unlikely, but they are still there. E.g. what if the front fell off?

It is entirely true. Source: I worked on 757 flight controls design for 3 years. > what if the front fell off? All structural components are redundant and have redundant attachments. The wing spars are doubled, for example.

[deleted]

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's a wrong assumption. Significant cost come from the assembly and testing of all the components itself, that you would have to redo entirely. Also if you were to build just 2 or 3 of them, you can't expect any economy of scale. On top of that, the operational cost of JWST is expected to be around 1B$ for it's lifetime, you could expect that to be similar for every single replica you have. And finally, you…

Assuming your figures are correct, you'll get double the data for another 30% cost. If you wait a month before launching #2, if problems appear in #1 (like the telescope mirror was ground improperly) it can be fixed in #2. The operational cost will not double. The same ground facility, equipment, and staff can manage both. If you're buying two identical launches, you can get a quantity discount. > the benefits of a s…

>Making two adds little cost.

I think you are overextending your experience in a production environment here.

I’ve worked in both, and the type of builds in these aerospace applications still have huge costs in subsequent runs. Hell, even rebuilding an existing component can be prohibitively expensive.

Much of the GSE was likely existing so that’s probably a non-issue.

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's a wrong assumption. Significant cost come from the assembly and testing of all the components itself, that you would have to redo entirely. Also if you were to build just 2 or 3 of them, you can't expect any economy of scale. On top of that, the operational cost of JWST is expected to be around 1B$ for it's lifetime, you could expect that to be similar for every single replica you have. And finally, you…

Assuming your figures are correct, you'll get double the data for another 30% cost. If you wait a month before launching #2, if problems appear in #1 (like the telescope mirror was ground improperly) it can be fixed in #2. The operational cost will not double. The same ground facility, equipment, and staff can manage both. If you're buying two identical launches, you can get a quantity discount. > the benefits of a s…

I think it's more that this argument can be continued ad infinitum. Yes the JWST had significant cost overruns, but in the design phase these types of projects necessarily are looked at as how to best utilize a fixed size grant of money. At the end of the day the decision got made to make a better single telescope than to make two simpler telescopes.

I wouldn't be surprised though if we start to see clever design proposals coming down the pipeline, like several cheaper telescopes, swarm designs for giant radio telescope arrays, and even amateur designed and operated space telescopes. Remember that the JWST started it's design phase back in 1996, and the economics of space launches have changed considerably since then.

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#148
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming your figures are correct, you'll get double the data for another 30% cost. If you wait a month before launching #2, if problems appear in #1 (like the telescope mirror was ground improperly) it can be fixed in #2. The operational cost will not double. The same ground facility, equipment, and staff can manage both. If you're buying two identical launches, you can get a quantity discount. > the benefits of a s…

Agree. A replica wouldn’t have to be sent to L2 for that matter. Pretty sure a lot of science could be done with even a slow trajectory leaving the solar system, if orbiting something else is infeasible.

As I understood the engineering of the JWST requires it to be at L2 so it's in permanent shadow of the sun and can keep the very low temperatures necessary for good infrared image quality.

Re: James Webb is fully deployed

#150

Since 90% of the cost is probably in R+D of the telescope, one could build and deploy another for another 10%. Why isn't this done? Why is every space telescope completely unique?

> 90% of the cost is probably in R+D of the telescope While I might have guessed that, IIRC someone at NASA said that most of the cost is parts, assembly, and testing of a massive, highly sensitive, highly unusual custom build. Many (most?) parts are custom made, and even finding vendors to make them again would be difficult - wasn't the manufacturing completed several years ago? Again, IIRC, they said a second one m…

Projects to widen freeways face a similar diminishing return. The most value arises from the new capability. Each lane thereafter does not yield linearly increasing returns.
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