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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#651

Post by sangnoir »

frebord wrote: post #179
swasheck wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also in colorado. currently have O. the + tests from our (previously very cautious) friend groups are coming in rapidly. i was boosted in mid-novemeber. _physical_ symptoms feel like a bad cold (cough, congested head, sinus headaches) though i'm afebrile. the mental symptoms are definitely different/stronger. sleeplessness. auditory hallucinations. i'd say mental fog but i can't say that's not related to the sleeples…

I'm now 10 days clear of the last obvious symptoms - but I've been having major trouble focusing since the end of the Holiday and not sure if due to covid or not.

I hope you'll fully recover soon! Most people hoping COVID-19 burns through the entire population are not considering the ramifications of wide-spread long-covid.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#652

Post by codeulike »

sroussey wrote: post #97
codeulike wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we're seeing evidence that Omicron provides some immunity from the more dangerous strains like Delta. If we're worried about Omicron mutating to become more deadly, why aren't we worried about the other human coronaviruses doing the same? 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1 that have been around for ages? There's nothing magic about Omicron, its just a repsiratory virus thats relatively new to humans so there's not so much po…

> 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1 that have been around for ages They can only insert themselves into specific cells (acidic ones in lungs, nose, throat, stomach) and thus are respiratory viruses. SARS-Cov-2 can insert into most cells of your body and loves the organs like the heart, brain, testes, lungs, etc. It is airborne like a cold but can damage your brain and heart where a cold cannot.

I'm not sure its that different. For example NL63 binds to ACE2 just like covid. Its just less damaging.

Many viruses can attack multiple organs in the body if the infection is bad enough and the viral load is big enough to spread that far - e.g. see https://www.healthline.com/health/viremia

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#653

Post by short12 »

spurgu wrote: post #587
gz5 wrote: post #84

Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, has a nice substack from perspective of an epidemiologist. Two notable recent Omicron posts on that substack: The potentially scary aspects: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa... The potentially good news: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/there-is-good... Obviously it is still early, but imo those 2 posts give a decent lay of the land.

What are the "scary aspects" of that article? That Omicron is highly transmissible forcing people to take time off work?

It's been getting to the point or already is that you can't get treatment. Plenty of urgent care centers are simply closing down for now. Hospitals won't even treat covid.

I'd call that pretty scary

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#654

Post by short12 »

timr wrote: post #528
sterlind wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's still misleading, because a lot of these hospitalizations are going to ERs for testing. I don't think this is correct. Going to the ER is not the same as being admitted to the hospital. From everything I've read, ER visits are not counted as hospitalizations anywhere.

Yes, they are. They count anyone admitted to a hospital in NYC, at any time, for any duration: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/ced762b25... > Hospitalization counts reflect the total number of people with COVID-19 ever admitted to a hospital, not the number of people currently admitted. If you go to the ER and make it to a treatment area, you're admitted. These are bright-line distinctions. Nobody…

I've been in the ER dozens of times and I not considered admitted until I am told I'm getting admitted and wheeled upstairs

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#655

Post by rlpb »

kcplate wrote: post #620
rlpb wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59895598 , over 500,000 people in the UK are still suffering health issues a year after catching Covid , and nearly 900,000 are still suffering after 12 weeks. The UK population is around 70 million, so that's around 1% of the entire population. If you take into the fact that many people in the UK have managed to not catch it at all yet, or exclude children who suffer fa…

The problem with a statistic like that is that it is pretty much devoid of almost all data that would make it truly meaningful and valuable. That stat tells us nothing of their health pre-Covid, and I’d bet a very large portion of that number were already dealing with health issues (which we already know significantly increases severe Covid). The meaningful number is how many formerly healthy people are battling Covi…

Previous health condition status is part of the dataset, so you don't need to guess. If you want to take that into account, then use the data to make your point.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#656

Post by Terretta »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #476
bratwurst3000 wrote: post #152

Just giving my 2 cents. Got boosted 3 weeks ago. Now I have covid. Everything is fine, feels like the least ill i ever was from anything. But I wanted to state that omnicron is a beast. I did wear a ffp2 mask with nearly every social contact and if we didnt wear mask we would test ourself. I am sure I got it from the streets from people passing by. That said I am in the french alps and it was vacation time here. And…

I'll give my two cents then. People are probably not gonna like it here but I think alternative perspective is important. I got vaccinated in June 2021 and haven't been following any restrictions or rules for the last ~10mo. No masks (unless forced or asked), haven't limited human contact, haven't stopped seeing Grandma, etc. I have traveled extensively in the past four months, including to two foreign countries. I n…

> People are probably not gonna like it here but I think alternative perspective is important.

Thanks, I hate it. :-)

Anecdata is the worst*, as generally only self-identified outliers feel compelled to share. So then there’s more outlying noise than there should be, and normals get confused.

Still useful in the sense of serving to illustrate probability curves mean tails exist, so a bunch of people must be outliers, oh look here’s one.

But where it goes wrong is when someone looks at 1000 viewpoints on whatever, identifies the 2 who think it’s aliens, and creates a “both sides” narrative. Or self-identifies: hey y’all, I’m a walking survivor bias!

For policy, “alternative perspective” of an outlier is worth exactly 2 cents, but must be stacked up against the 80 cents of the bell curve. In other words, yes, the case must exist, but is not illustrative of what a normal distribution participant can expect or how they should behave.

* Anecdata is also the best. Edge cases matter for bounding problem spaces, contingency or mitigation planning, or maybe even important for novel discovery. For instance, while it shouldn’t determine majority behavior, why one individual might seem immune to COVID could be very worth a quick check to see if worth looking into. If it’s not tail luck, if it’s immunity, that could reveal an undiscovered mechanism helpful to the normal distribution.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#657

Post by anonfornoreason »

jatone wrote: post #639
anonfornoreason wrote: post #624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh didn’t say anything about forcing, please be careful about putting words in peoples mouths. I said incentivized with pay, quite the opposite of forcing.

its the natural outcome to your argument. there simply is no way to increase the supply of highly trained specialists within even a year timeframe. 'incentives' won't help. there simply isn't enough supply in aggregate. and they are not leaving because of a lack of pay they're leaving due to the stress of dealing with assholes on the daily. cash isn't going to fix that problem. the only option left in such a scenario…

Never underestimate the ability to change peoples minds with money :)

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#658

Post by Marazan »

rhino369 wrote: post #226
Marazan wrote: post #171

Omicron has probably saved Florida (andnother southern states) from a horrendous Delta winter wave.

I'm skeptical. The 2020 Winter wave started in October. But cases were decreasing of flat Oct. and Nov. with barely any mitigations in place. There was some sign of an increase in very late nov. and early december. Whether that is an early sign of a wave, a thanksgiving bump, or signs of Omicron spreading, it's hard to tell. But it Florida and the South had a high degree of immunity to delta even pre omicron.

The 2021 Summer peaks in the south were much later than the equivalent 2020 summer peaks. In 2020 Florida peaked in mid July. In 2021 they only started coming down in Early September.

This would push their winter peaks back as acquired immunity would fade at a later point.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#659

Post by kcplate »

rlpb wrote: post #655
kcplate wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with a statistic like that is that it is pretty much devoid of almost all data that would make it truly meaningful and valuable. That stat tells us nothing of their health pre-Covid, and I’d bet a very large portion of that number were already dealing with health issues (which we already know significantly increases severe Covid). The meaningful number is how many formerly healthy people are battling Covi…

Previous health condition status is part of the dataset, so you don't need to guess. If you want to take that into account, then use the data to make your point.

Thanks for the tip! I’ll let the dataset speak for itself:

“7. Health/disability status is self-reported by study participants rather than clinically diagnosed. From February 2021 study participants were asked to exclude any symptoms related to COVID-19 when reporting their health/disability status. However, in practice it may be difficult for some participants to separate long COVID symptoms from unrelated exacerbation of pre-existing conditions, so these results should be treated with caution. “

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#660

Post by zionic »

henrikschroder wrote: post #444
elif wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment strategies, that sounds prematurely defeatist, and also ignores the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes.

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of t…

Not just “more than Sweden”. Australia has failed while going full 1984.

This entire thing is a huge inditement of police nanny states.

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