Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, it's pretty early to be drawing conclusions about this with omicron. Especially since it hit right as people in most of the vaccinated world were hitting 5-6mo since their second shots. That doesn't mean it's "unfalsifiable" it just means it hasn't been yet. That said, I don't think the null hypothesis is suddenly "vaccines do nothing" for some reason. It's clear enough it spreads more easily but that doesn't…
It's only too early if, like our public health authorities, you are too bigoted and self-important to trust South African medical scientists because they aren't from a mostly white country. That's my take on why the CDC ignored their scientists, as did the media. From the very beginning, the South African medical authorities were screaming that this variant was producing far fewer hospitalizations OVERALL (despite hi…
Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
601–610 of 703 posts
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#602Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're thinking about it all wrong. Omicron and Delta are the same virus, and there's not particularly any good data that Omicron is less intrinsically virulent than Delta. Omicron infects those who are unboosted, and likely reinfects a lot of the population that is >6 months recovered from prior single infection. It is all about the fact that Omicron infects people who already have T-cells and aren't immunologically…
> It is all about the fact that Omicron infects people who already have T-cells and aren't immunologically naive. The way out of the pandemic is our memory B-cells and T-cells. What does immunologically naive mean? And how do B-cells and T-cells help us get out of the pandemic? Trying to learn as much as possible, thanks.
Your body has intrinsic, innate and humoral defense mechanisms, along with circulating neutralizing antibodies.
Intrinsic and innate defenses are early and quick and children and young people have strong defenses there and they can shred viruses quickly (and sometimes so fast that people don't form any humoral memory to the infection). If you ever get a '24 hour flu' where you feel like you have a degree of fever and then it passes that may have been an aborted infection that was destroyed by your innate and/or intrinsic systems.
Neutralizing antibodies are what most people think of as "immunity" which is immunity against infection. Small amounts of neutralizing antibodies will bind to foreign particles that are circulating and hinder them from being able to bind to cellular receptors and cause infection to begin with. This is true sterilizing immunity, and if its good enough it is a perfect shield. The neutralizing antibodies though bind to specific sites on the proteins of the virus (about 20 for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2) and mutations at those sites can cause escape mutation variants (like Omicron). Neutralizing antibodies also tend to wane (probably because of autoimmune diseases that they could otherwise cause).
Once an infection has taken hold then you have intracellular virus and proteins. Those are chopped up by proteases inside the cell (in general proteins are often chopped up by the cell this goes on continuously) and those short protein segments are bound to a receptor called MHC-II which is then transported up to the cell surface and displayed on the surface of the cell. This is how cells signal what kinds of proteins they are "seeing" inside of them. There's a complicated system to distinguish between self-protein segments and foreign segments which I won't go into. Once the segments of the viral protein are displayed on the surface of the cell on MHC receptors that is a signal to other immune cells that there's something going wrong and the cell is either lysed and destroyed or dragged off to lymph nodes (by dendritic cells, which have nothing to do with nerve dendrites, but they looked kind of similar so got named that a long time ago).
Once in the lymph nodes the learning process happens and undifferentiated B-cell and T-cells are trained on the peptide and that leads to T-cells that can recognize the proteins. The fact that it is small slices of the protein and not the whole thing mean that there's actually many more segments that T-cells get trained on. There's a couple thousand T-cell epitopes in the virus, and they're overlapping and in many cases they're overlapping in conserved regions of the proteins where the virus likely cannot ever mutate without ceasing to be a virus. So T-cell antigenic escape will be impossible.
This process takes a lot of time though, and doesn't happen right away. There's also the process of hypermutation and affinity maturation which means that the whole humoral system looks a lot more like a bayesian spamfilter than a lock-and-key model. This is why giving a booster 6+ months after an initial shot(s) is effective at producing immune responses against variants that have mutations in the protein that the immune system is being trained on. You give the immune system "Viagra" as a string and it learns to identify "V14gr4" as well more or less.
Now the next time you get hit with the actual virus, even if its a variant, it may not be affected by neutralizing antibodies due to antigenic escape or waning immunity, but if you've got T-cells then they'll see those peptides being displayed by infected cells. Many or most of the peptides will be recognized as being exactly the same as the prior infection. Those T-cells will then either send out cries for help (CD4+ helper cells) and rally the troops, or else they'll directly lyse and destroy the infected cells (CD8+ cytotoxic lympocytes).
Because you've seen the virus before those T-cells have a huge headstart now and even though you don't have "immunity" in the sense that you've been infected, the severity is lower, because your body can identify the infected cells and immediately deal with them.
And one example of how we know that T-cells don't really wane and have considerable cross reactivity in the face of mutated proteins is the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. People that were born before 1957 were exposed to the H1 protein of the H1N1 strains that were circulating in humans from 1918 to 1957. That virus spent ~50 years mutating in pigs before hopping back into the human race, but the H1 protein in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic still was recognized by cross reactive T-cells in old people born before 1957 and that took the whole edge off of that pandemic. Everyone born before 1957 was effectively vaccinated (and probably boosted many many times against the 2009 pandemic). The H1 protein would have extremely mutated after 50 years of serial passage through probably billions of pigs, but conserved regions in the protein meant that the "spamfilter" was still trained on enough of it to give it a high score.
And that's the quick overview, there's a lot more.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#603Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes. We're never getting a T-cell escape mutant that dramatically increases the risk of hospitalization/death in the vaccinated/recovered. There's really very little to worry about variants if your vaxxed and boosted. Experts still don't have any idea how intrinsically virulent Omicron is, and it may be every bit as intrinsically virulent as Delta w…
> wave can be explained entirely by human immunity. It's also the fact that, to put it bluntly, many of the people who were the most susceptible to be sent into ICU or to die because of Covid have already had that happen to them. Not sure if that scenario is included in the definition of "herd immunity", to be honest, just wanted to point that (cynical) truth out.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#604Earlier quoted context omitted.
My 15 yo son got Covid about three weeks ago, symptoms matched what the parent poster described, including feeling "wiped out". Oh wait, no he didn't. Testing all came back negative. Diagnosis from his pediatrician: common cold.
Ah, yeah, you're right. It was probably just the cold that myself, my son, and my wife got after being exposed to someone that had symptomatic, PCR tested Covid. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that we then all three tested positive for covid.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#605Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way. Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop t…
There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. C…
> An effective containment strategy _is_ possible
Not at any cost I'm comfortable with.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#606Earlier quoted context omitted.
Muscle aches, chest pain, headache, and severe coughing fits that won't let her sleep and scare me when I hear them from the other room. After being awake for two days and one of them dropping her blood oxygen to 87 I made her go to the emergency room where they gave her prescription cough medicine that finally let her sleep. Omicron is less dangerous than Delta. It's still dangerous.
Wait 87 SpO2?! I'm pretty sure that's the point at which you would be on a ventilator? Not sure what sleep has to do with SpO2 and it seems criminally negligent for the emergency room to just send your wife off with just a cough medicine..
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#607Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure if we can say it's "over". People were saying the same thing after the Delta waves started subsiding and behold … Omicron.
But now we’ll be able to reach herd immunity. Very mild and highly transmissible. This is the best possible outcome.
I had a "mild" Covid Original Flavour. I "only" had a 103 fever for 3 weeks, swellings in places I didn't know could swell, and had my stamina shot to shit. It's been just over a year and I'm just now beginning to feel like I can start bringing myself back to pre-Covid healthiness levels.
And all that is "mild". I didn't lose my sense of smell. I didn't lose oxygenation. I never had to go to the emergency room.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#608Earlier quoted context omitted.
There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. C…
I'm not suggesting China has been hiding bodies, but with a demographic where diabetes and obesity is almost non-existant, the mortality of covid-19 is very low. You shouldn't see any excess mortality, which means you can hide the true number of cases by lying about cause of death instead. > An effective containment strategy _is_ possible Not at any cost I'm comfortable with.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#609Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's only too early if, like our public health authorities, you are too bigoted and self-important to trust South African medical scientists because they aren't from a mostly white country. That's my take on why the CDC ignored their scientists, as did the media. From the very beginning, the South African medical authorities were screaming that this variant was producing far fewer hospitalizations OVERALL (despite hi…
I thought the issues were more about the younger population than in Europe and the US. And the unknown number of folks that had already been exposed to previous waves. Not the racial makeup of the people living there.
I was amused at the sudden acknowledgement of natural immunity from previous infection in the very publications that have constantly claimed it doesn't exist, the minute it supported their need to keep fear mongering. Same with the younger population point, considering these very organizations have gone out of their way to obfuscate the vast risk stratification by age for most of the pandemic. The terrified 20-somethings wearing respirators in TikTok videos are a result of this.
Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
#610Earlier quoted context omitted.
" We can easily see that in many graphs, but my favorite is below from New York City, showing a clear distinction in hospitalizations among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated people " I don't see this as much here in Ontario. Among the vaccinated as of today there is a 10.10/100k hospitalization status vs 16/100k for the unvaccinated (and 11.9 for one-dose). The hospitalization rate among the vaccinated is climbing…
This data from NYC has been supplanted and updated for all of NYS: https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data This still shows a greater than 10x difference in outcomes. Additionally, the "unvacccinated" population includes people naturally vaccinated by virtue of having a previous case. It could very well evolve into a form that is mild enough and different enough from the vaccine spike that brings…
Maybe not. A much broader vaccine is coming along well.[1] That's from the US Army's Walter Reed Medical Center, and it just passed phase I (safety) clinical testing. That one is supposed to protect against all COVID & SARS variants.
There are 93 more COVID vaccines in development at the moment. Some are pills. Some are nasal sprays. Something is going to work. What we have now is the minimum viable product, and even that is pretty good. Early on, there was concern that a 50% effective vaccine was all that would result. Which is about where the original Sputnik vaccine, and the original SinoVac, are. Instead, we got 95% effective vaccines in round 1.
[1] https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-create...