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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#581

Post by spurgu »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #312
throwhauser wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year you'll be a year older though, which eventually results in being in a different (higher) risk category.

But this means, that we can reopen everything, let young people "live", and target the efforts towards old people (and other risk groups). Atleast here in slovenia, most of the mandates affect mostly the young and healthy... yes, theoretically neither 20yo bobby nor his grandpa can enter nightclubs, due to them being closed, but with such data, we could reopen nightclubs, let bobby party and do all the stupid stuff w…

You're describing a sanity of focused protection which should've been in place since day one, but for some reason policymakers instead lost their minds. :| At least now with Omicron they will slowly realize that lockdowns make no sense. Right? Right? (looking at Finland and crying, my home country recently having gone into full lockdown mode for no good reason other than case numbers)

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#582

Post by koyote »

henrikschroder wrote: post #444
elif wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment strategies, that sounds prematurely defeatist, and also ignores the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes.

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of t…

> Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now.

Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#583

Post by spurgu »

r00fus wrote: post #566
spurgu wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have omicron right now (4-5 months after 2nd jab, so pretty much no effect from that) and it's just like a common cold (certainly wouldn't call it "battling omicron"). I have zero problems with getting this each year.

> (4-5 months after 2nd jab, so pretty much no effect from that) and it's just like a common cold So you have milder symptoms because you're vaxxed.

I'll let you know how I feel when I get it "unvaxxed" the next time, since I decided months ago already against getting a booster.

It also sounds like you're not aware of a) the vaning efficacy of the vaccine or b) how little it does against Omicron.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#584

Post by henrikschroder »

paganel wrote: post #560
henrikschroder wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of t…

> What effective containment strategies? I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.

I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way.

Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop the spread elsewhere. It's a virus, not a rebellion.

I'm assuming China has always had a low level spread that could be hidden, because their demographics make it a non-issue. However, I'm guessing Omicron is creating such massive spread that regional officials can't deny reality any longer, and the lockdowns are some kind of desperate last-ditch attempt to save face.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#585

Post by swader999 »

smileysteve wrote: post #572
swader999 wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So can we just do away with the show your passports nonsense then? Think of the tax that adds up every establishment.

Yes, your local jurisdiction can. Many of us have never had such a requirement.

Well if I can't change my jurisdiction, I just may have to change my jurisdiction.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#586

Post by robocat »

soperj wrote: post #518
TranquilMarmot wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to what extent does recovering from Omicron prevent Delta?' If Omicron is reaching 100% prevalence in so many locations, I wonder if Delta will not be as much of a threat anymore? It seems like there haven't been any infections with older variants for a long time now.

Omicron evolved from Beta, which had pretty much bottomed out in the human population. They believe it evolved in mice. Just because Delta is disappearing in the human population doesn't mean it's gone.

> They believe it evolved in mice.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34954396/

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/01/coronavirus-omi...

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#587

Post by spurgu »

gz5 wrote: post #84

Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, has a nice substack from perspective of an epidemiologist. Two notable recent Omicron posts on that substack: The potentially scary aspects: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa... The potentially good news: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/there-is-good... Obviously it is still early, but imo those 2 posts give a decent lay of the land.

What are the "scary aspects" of that article? That Omicron is highly transmissible forcing people to take time off work?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#588

Post by henrikschroder »

koyote wrote: post #582
henrikschroder wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of t…

> Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?

Most Australian states still have mandatory qr-code checkins for everything, police are still chasing people fleeing the "voluntary" quarantine at Howard Springs, and still fining people not wearing face masks. And some still have restrictions that are stricter than what Sweden currently has:

https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibili...

The other restrictions are of course coming back, despite promises to the contrary:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-ti...

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#589

Post by iechoz6H »

cthalupa wrote: post #573
iechoz6H wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint; My mum nearly died of Covid, six weeks in hospital, four of which were in ICU. On leaving we discovered she no longer had epilepsy.

This is the sort of extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence to support it, and there are many potential confounding factors.

What sort of evidence would satisfy you?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#590

Post by Imnimo »

omnicognate wrote: post #492
regularfry wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have different transmission probabilities. Omicron has far more presence in the upper respiratory tract. It's just a numbers game, they're not competing in any active sense.

In that case I don't understand the "omicron will outcompete other variants" thing I keep reading about. If they don't interact wouldn't the progress of one variant be unaffected by the presence of another?

I think you're correct - if Omicron and Delta provided no cross-immunity, there would be no competition, and they would just continue on their own trajectories as if the other didn't exist.

But, I think that's not actually the case. Omicron infection does provide some immunity against Delta. See this preliminary report from South Africa, for example: https://www.ahri.org/omicron-infection-enhances-neutralising...

I'm not an expert (so take this next part with a very large grain of salt), but I would guess that someone with an active Omicron infection (and so swarming with antibodies) would get the biggest immunity boost against Delta. So if Omicron is everywhere, Delta runs out of infectable hosts. In principle, it could even go extinct - if that were to happen, it wouldn't matter so much if Omicron-induced immunity wanes, there would be no Delta left once the shields are down.

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