What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922) • Hacker News Board

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#161

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:13 PM UTC

NoImmatureAdHom wrote: post #141

pindab0ter wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What terrible phrasing is "they cease to be productive and look for ways to while away their time." We don't live to work, we work to live. Once less work is required to live, more living can be done. Some people may 'while away their time', others do valuable things that don't produce monetary value.

I haven't though it through in detail, but I think it has to do with the intersection of these two things. Netflix and ice cream is pure leisure, toiling in the mines is pure work, but there's significant overlap...I'm sure for many here working on a personal coding project can be both a joy in the sense of leisure and also productive work in the sense that other people would pay for it, or it brings significant econ…

[deleted]

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#162

Post by beaconstudios » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:14 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #158

beaconstudios wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And predicting the fall of the US... Makes them both nazis and communists? I'm confused by your argument.

Read the book, look into the forums content, funding sources, history, etc I was pointing out the anti-United states propaganda has been going on for years.

I'm not going to do all that to verify your comment. It strikes me as an absurd claim, at least in part because nazis and communists are opposites, and everybody is predicting the fall of the US' dominance to China these days.

The WEF is just liberal capitalism. The trend towards technofeudalism (everyone is renting their existence from big corps) has been going on for a while, at the hands of capitalists. Because its profitable. See: the growth of financing/credit, software subscriptions, etc.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#163

Post by jameshart » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:15 PM UTC

Regarding flying:

"The problem is mainly one of artificial heating and ventilation to enable the aeronauts to survive."

And indeed, ventilation is the primary concern among air passengers in 2022.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#164

Post by hiptobecubic » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:15 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #92

misnome wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about people who are made happy by innovating and progressing?

When social support for that goes away, it's only the "crazy" who would do that just because. But without societal support it's a dead-end. There are countries with lots of people --but whose contribution to innovation is substandard. There is no societal support so innovation is stunted. It’s like thinking justice will happen just because… No, it happens because society supports justice. Justice or innovation don’t…

Innovation does just happen, but only under circumstances that need it. People support it because it makes their lives easier. If it doesn't do that then honestly who cares? Don't confuse innovation in general with how many startups the country has.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#165

Post by scottLobster » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:16 PM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #146

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if the cost of rungs in the social later (housing, education, etc) wasn't so high that only certain kinds of people could achieve them. Many of the "your not allowed to do that"s of the past are still in place for entire neighborhoods, only the words changed.

In 1922 only 5% of people went to University - now 50% go on to post secondary which is largely due to cost and opportunity. Only about 50% finished HS - now it's 95%. Doctors were not very affordable by anyone - now it's >90%. Most people didn't have running water and electricity yet now it's almost 100%. The only thing that's not as nice as 'real estate' - housing was cheap, but the houses were crap, and often you…

All of those facts are meaningless without context.

Higher education is far more necessary for even a middle class existence than it was in 1922, and the middle class is getting less and less affordable. One of my grandfathers worked a family farm. My dad was able to grind his way out of the lower classes by working at Friendly's and other odd jobs to pay for college (up to and including his PhD). My father in law's uncle was a high school dropout who started showing people around at the local hardware store and was such a good salesperson the owner hired him after a few weeks. None of those are possible for most Americans these days (good luck pulling the leave-it-to-beaver "prove my value to the local store owner" at Home Depot or Walmart).

US citizens are now regularly advised to take Uber to the hospital if they can survive the trip, as it avoids the cost of an ambulance, which is often over a thousand dollars in a country where most can't afford a $500 emergency. I'm not sure how that qualifies as "affordable", and certainly not affordable to 90%+. Granted this is primarily an American issue.

More important to me than the quality of the house is the quality of the school district that it's in (see previous remarks about the modern necessity of education). I can fix/improve a house, I can't fix/improve schooling short of private school, which would probably be more expensive than fixing a house over the long term. Good look finding an affordable house in a good school district near any major metropolitan area with jobs.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#166

Post by Spooky23 » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:17 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #99

overthemoon wrote: post #35

It's interesting to compare this to the WEF future projections: https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/s... Especially with regards to this passage:: "In 2022 [economic development] will be as finished as it is to-day in England. American wealth will then be either developed or known, and all of it will belong to somebody. There will be no more opportunity in America than there is in England to-da…

> Welcome To 2030: I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy And Life Has Never Been Better Let me translate “you are slaves and you rent everything. We base your ability to purchase on a social credit score. But we let you rent houses in our artificially limited VR world.” I don’t make much of predictions like these. It’s ALWAYS a safe bet to assume people will lose liberty. To the point the FED was created in 1913, research w…

It’s probably a waste of time to argue this, but the arguments for central banking were the same as the arguments put forth by Alexander Hamilton. More stability, greater resilience, etc.

The arguments against it were vague references to tyranny, orchestrated by people whose wealth is generated from resource extraction and inherited wealth.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#167

Post by sebow » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:18 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #105

lettergram wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world economic forum is largely lead by former nazis and communists. They have openly called for the United States to decline as a power. I wouldn’t necessarily take anything they say as fact. Lol

Citation very much needed.

Go browse their website.It's very much transparent, which is both scary and somewhat surreal.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#168

Post by sovnade » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:18 PM UTC

paradite wrote: post #152

Yes, the prediction is incredibly accurate. So my question would be: Is this a case of selection bias (survival bias)? Did we cherry picked one accurate prediction (at the right time) out of many different predictions made about the future?

That only seems relevant if the author of this had a vast number of predictions.

Overall, yeah, there were tons. That doesn't detract from how accurate this particular piece was.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#169

Post by jahnu » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:18 PM UTC

antux wrote: post #159

overthemoon wrote: post #35

It's interesting to compare this to the WEF future projections: https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/s... Especially with regards to this passage:: "In 2022 [economic development] will be as finished as it is to-day in England. American wealth will then be either developed or known, and all of it will belong to somebody. There will be no more opportunity in America than there is in England to-da…

> Those Americans will know that it is practically certain that they will die much in the same position as the ones in which they were born. Those Americans will therefore be less enterprising and much more pleasure loving. You can see this today with the anti-work movement and the overindulgence in tv shows, movies, porn, junk food, social media, and video games. All these things are corrupting the future generation…

Alternatively people have found their own way to be happy and want to fill their lives with more experiences and less work for someone else's wealth.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#170

Post by Aperocky » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 3:19 PM UTC

tomxor wrote: post #33

This is surprisingly accurate, reserved and balanced through the lens of society as well as science. I was expecting something more fanciful like flying horses or whatnot.

Except that:

> I'm sure that technological advancement in 2022 will be amazing, but they will be nothing as amazing as the present day than it is over 100 years ago (i.e. 1822).

I don't know about that statement.