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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#71

Post by johnchristopher »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #68
akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe."

I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transmission capability is all that matters to it and symptoms are hidden (thus increasing transmission between individuals) in the first days of infection and that's what evolution is driving him to be: more transmissible.

The fact symptoms appear sooner than delta seems to be a step backward for the virus in terms of efficacy and it's compensated by being way way way more virulent.

What am I getting wrong here ?

Also:

Omicron could as well have been more severe (and the jury is still out on long covid anyway). If there's another variant less virulent but compensated by hiding symptoms longer... then this would take over omicron and this variant could as well be more severe.

Is that totally out of the realm of possibilities ?

My regular joe thinking tells me that we can only be sure of the direction it's going to take when spring comes. 2021 had 5 vocs, it's only the first days of January.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#72

Post by aorth »

rich_sasha wrote: post #10
akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

So far in the UK hospitalisations are increasing, but not dramatically so. There's also brouhaha about how London (where the wave is the worst) is at its peak, or already on the way down. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ [bear in mind, the hospitalisation number is not quite what it seems. It is "people in hospital who happen to have Covid", not "people who got Covid so bad they need to be hospitalised". So if you ha…

According to your link there's definitely a bump in hospital admissions. Only time will tell how high that bump goes. Let's play it safe and reserve judgement just a little longer...

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=...

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#73

Post by rsynnott »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #68
akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

One thing that gives me pause here; at one time people were saying that _Delta_ would be very hard to outcompete, given how infectious it is.

Something as infectious as Omicron but with better immune escape would presumably do very well, even once the Omicron waves pass.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#74

Post by rsynnott »

Gigachad wrote: post #20
ror_shubham wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its milder than Delta but way more transmissible. The more people get this, more will be the chances of a new variant which can be more deadly/transmissible.

If this is all so likely and rapid, why does this not happen constantly every single year? Why did it take so long for one particular virus to leak when it seems like with so many humans we should see some super virus come up constantly.

It does happen from time to time, but it's usually not _quite_ right. In the last couple of decades, there've been at least four or five pandemic false alarms, mostly flu variants. In the event, none of them quite made it. But now that covid _has_ made it, minor variations on the already-very-dangerous-thing can be a big problem.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#75

Post by rsynnott »

rocqua wrote: post #12

I thought that a second variant was essentially an independent stochastic process. If I have that right that suggests that, had Omicron not occurred Colorado would currently be Corona-free. I doubt that is true though. Maybe some of the people who now have Omicron would have gotten Delta later on? I don't see how one variant can truly extinguish another variant otherwise. But I am hoping someone here knows better tha…

If having had omicron is reasonably protective against contracting delta in the short term, then this works. For now. Who knows how long any acquired immunity holds up.

Delta did pretty much eliminate prior variants in many parts of the world.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#76

Post by xg15 »

trhway wrote: post #26
Gigachad wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is all so likely and rapid, why does this not happen constantly every single year? Why did it take so long for one particular virus to leak when it seems like with so many humans we should see some super virus come up constantly.

>Why did it take so long for one particular virus to leak why long? The EcoAlliance's gain-of-function (with the "Human Subjects Included" checked) NIH grant for Wuhan started in 2014, the human-specific DNA modifications of the virus were described in the EcoAlliance's 2018 DARPA grant proposal, and in the end of 2019 - voila! With regard to omicron - we may be also witnessing the continuation of the same magic of t…

I guess you're alluding to the "lab leak" theory. I can't say I know how serious it should be taken, but just this: If this really was a lab leak and China knows something we don't know, then I'd be really scared of their current behaviour of locking down entire agglomerations over two-digit numbers of mostly asymptomatic cases.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#77

Post by spuz »

johnchristopher wrote: post #71
CodeGlitch wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe." I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transmission capability is all that matters to it and symptoms are hidden (thus increasing transmission between individuals) in the first days of infection and that's what evolution is driving him to be: more transmissible. The fact symptoms appear sooner than delta…

Yes, I believe the high transmissibility before symptoms appear is the most beneficial trait to Omicron. However, if a variant appeared with exactly the same traits except that it was 10x more deadly, then a lot more people would be taking it more seriously, self-isolating and driving down infections. From an evolutionary perspective, there is an incentive for the virus to become milder rather than more deadly because of how the news of a deadly virus changes human behaviour.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#78

Post by bayesianbot »

spuz wrote: post #77
johnchristopher wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe." I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transmission capability is all that matters to it and symptoms are hidden (thus increasing transmission between individuals) in the first days of infection and that's what evolution is driving him to be: more transmissible. The fact symptoms appear sooner than delta…

Yes, I believe the high transmissibility before symptoms appear is the most beneficial trait to Omicron. However, if a variant appeared with exactly the same traits except that it was 10x more deadly, then a lot more people would be taking it more seriously, self-isolating and driving down infections. From an evolutionary perspective, there is an incentive for the virus to become milder rather than more deadly becaus…

But future human actions do not put evolutionary pressure on the virus. First the possible new variant emerges, our actions come later.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#80

Post by dragontamer »

tsywke44 wrote: post #66
Semaphor wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still know no one in Germany who ever had covid, only one person in the US and one in South Africa (who also died from it), so I’m not sure about that.

Yes, it’s called a filter bubble. Covid was extremely easy to avoid pre-Omicron even without vaccines if you don’t go to nightclubs and don’t work in an office and have no kids.

But what about weddings? Church? Hospitals?

Even during the lockdown, a family friend of mine needed to go to a hospital for an unrelated issue, and that's when a nurse from there passed COVID19 to him. Then he passed COVID19 to his father. He was 35, no kids, didn't work in an office. Still got COVID19 and spread it with deadly results. Etc. etc.

Church, Weddings, Thanksgiving / Christmas / New Years, Birthday parties and other social events? Choir practice? Indoor sports like basketball or racketball? Gyms? Restaurants?

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There's a lot of social interactions between people when you start counting them up.

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