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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#11

Post by sebow »

akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

More cases means usually faster ability to spread, which again usually indicates that the virus is getting milder, so to answer you first q: yes.At this point covid realistically cannot be eradicated, i would say even if you achieve 80%+ vaccination rate worldwide(which we won't).To answer your second question i doubt we'll have more hospitalizations than delta.And to also state the obvious: by the time we get a 'jab' against omicron, we'll have another variant out there, whether identified & named or not.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#12

Post by rocqua »

I thought that a second variant was essentially an independent stochastic process. If I have that right that suggests that, had Omicron not occurred Colorado would currently be Corona-free.

I doubt that is true though. Maybe some of the people who now have Omicron would have gotten Delta later on? I don't see how one variant can truly extinguish another variant otherwise. But I am hoping someone here knows better than me.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#13

Post by rocqua »

akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Scary thing is. Milder disease is a constant factor improvement in hospitalization. But faster spreading (higher R value) is an exponential worsening in hospitalization.

It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#14

Post by Semaphor »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #4

omicron has solidly taken over Vancouver BC. Anecdotal evidence: in the past two years (except this past week) I have only known 1 person who got covid. In the past week I know over 20 people who have got covid. I sincerely hope that this is the beginning of the end of covid lockdowns. omicron is taking the world by storm and I wouldn't be surprised if the entire world gets it in the next few weeks.

I still know no one in Germany who ever had covid, only one person in the US and one in South Africa (who also died from it), so I’m not sure about that.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#15

Post by c-fe »

rocqua wrote: post #12

I thought that a second variant was essentially an independent stochastic process. If I have that right that suggests that, had Omicron not occurred Colorado would currently be Corona-free. I doubt that is true though. Maybe some of the people who now have Omicron would have gotten Delta later on? I don't see how one variant can truly extinguish another variant otherwise. But I am hoping someone here knows better tha…

How do you see them as independent stochastic processes? Assuming one person can only be infected with 1 variant at a time, then they are not independent, instead they would be negatively correlated since the more people have omikron the less people can get delta. If instead one person can have more than 1 variant at a time, and they are really independent, then your conclusion is incorrect since a 100% prevalance of omikron would not imply a 0% prevalance of other variants.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#16

Post by ror_shubham »

akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Its milder than Delta but way more transmissible. The more people get this, more will be the chances of a new variant which can be more deadly/transmissible.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#17

Post by akira2501 »

shrubble wrote: post #2

I can't easily link to the last chart at the bottom of the page, which shows all the variants. However it does seem to be the case that omicron is taking over in Colorado USA...

The CDC publishes this data as well.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportion...

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#18

Post by monksy »

akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

No...@ that's good right

Fewer % hospitalizations, but you have a much larger population getting it in a shorter amount of time.

When hospitals get oveerwhelmed you're going to get a knock down effect on non-covid issues where medical attention is needed but cannot be provided.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#19

Post by BoxOfRain »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #4

omicron has solidly taken over Vancouver BC. Anecdotal evidence: in the past two years (except this past week) I have only known 1 person who got covid. In the past week I know over 20 people who have got covid. I sincerely hope that this is the beginning of the end of covid lockdowns. omicron is taking the world by storm and I wouldn't be surprised if the entire world gets it in the next few weeks.

>I sincerely hope that this is the beginning of the end of covid lockdowns.

Me too, I think at this point further lockdowns would be akin to trying to stop a freight train with your shins: futile and extremely painful.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#20

Post by Gigachad »

ror_shubham wrote: post #16
akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Its milder than Delta but way more transmissible. The more people get this, more will be the chances of a new variant which can be more deadly/transmissible.

If this is all so likely and rapid, why does this not happen constantly every single year? Why did it take so long for one particular virus to leak when it seems like with so many humans we should see some super virus come up constantly.
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