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ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

reuters.com

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Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#81

Post by hda2 »

chongli wrote: post #72
hda2 wrote: post #62

Like water, food, and electricity, electronics have become an integral part of life. Every single country that can afford to bootstrap their own semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure should be scrambling to do so. This infrastructure doesn't have to be cutting edge. Even 90s-era tech should be enough to cover a country's basic needs in case of a global collapse or shortage. It's insane for humanity to continue p…

The hard part is what to do with 90s-era tech when times are good? Nobody’s buying that old stuff (hobbyists aside). So then you just run these plants at a loss? I’d hate to be an engineer at one of those places. Seems like very soul-crushing work.

> So then you just run these plants at a loss?

If there is no demand then yes, absolutely. It's normal for countries (inc. the US) to run and subsidize their infrastructure at a loss if it is critical to their national security.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#82

Post by scarab92 »

xadhominemx wrote: post #70
rjzzleep wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been pouring high order of millions into domestic lithography. Eventually the market will shift. We're still a bit far away. Edit: funny that people here think that this is statement is somehow something that could be considered a contentious topic. semiengineering has a startup section with investments for people that are more interested in facts than emotions: https://semiengineering.com/startup-corner/

China will not have a domestically sourced EUV scanner with commercially viable throughput within 20 years, if not longer. They are lacking precursor technologies to the precursor technologies, supply chains, talent, etc for both light source and optics, and unlike the rear of the semiconductor industry, those ecosystems are today found within the US and Europe, not Asia.

Things move pretty fast in China, so even though they are slow to innovate they can quickly copy designs where enough detailed information exists in public.

EUV took decades and billions of dollars in trial and error before the current techniques were figured out. Due to the West's tendency to publish successful techniques, China won't have to repeat these steps.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#83

Post by jazzyjackson »

kragen wrote: post #55
throwawaylinux wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well EUV alone cost many billions of dollars to develop. It's also not clear that China is particularly good at leading high tech innovation. If you just look at the dollars and cents, they should be inventing new technology at a similar rate as the US. Doesn't seem like they're pulling their weight.

This smear could not be further from the truth. China has singlehandedly (to the extent that a billion people can be considered a "single hand") dropped the cost of solar energy from five times as expensive as fossil fuels to half as expensive as fossil fuels in only ten years, an innovation that will probably stop global warming and usher in an unprecedented age of energy abundance starting about eight years from no…

Sorry to see you downvoted, it is extremely irksome to me that China is so often characterized as "copying others homework" -- if we could do what China does, why do we go to China every time we need something done?

It is not westerners exploiting cheap labor, tho it may have started that way. It is really the scale of their talent pool, the number of engineers that graduate every year is nearly 10x what the US gets around to, and they idea that they just sit around waiting for an American company to design something for them is farcical.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#84

Post by objektif »

chongli wrote: post #72
hda2 wrote: post #62

Like water, food, and electricity, electronics have become an integral part of life. Every single country that can afford to bootstrap their own semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure should be scrambling to do so. This infrastructure doesn't have to be cutting edge. Even 90s-era tech should be enough to cover a country's basic needs in case of a global collapse or shortage. It's insane for humanity to continue p…

The hard part is what to do with 90s-era tech when times are good? Nobody’s buying that old stuff (hobbyists aside). So then you just run these plants at a loss? I’d hate to be an engineer at one of those places. Seems like very soul-crushing work.

Thats you though not millions of people who may enjoy that kind of work.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#85

Post by onionisafruit »

vharuck wrote: post #78
chongli wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hard part is what to do with 90s-era tech when times are good? Nobody’s buying that old stuff (hobbyists aside). So then you just run these plants at a loss? I’d hate to be an engineer at one of those places. Seems like very soul-crushing work.

One option is government subsidies, like what's done for farms and military hardware. Just keep buying it up, even if it rots or rusts. The goal is to make sure those industries remain healthy and don't slip back in expertise.

Most governments can’t afford to do that.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#86

Post by dogsgobork »

Ygg2 wrote: post #44
dathinab wrote: post #12

Berlin news (rbb) say that Many things are still unclear including: - how big the damage is - how long it takes to operate again - how it was possible to happen/how it happend The linked article basically says the same.

Doesn't litography use some pretty wild chemicals. Like Chlorine Trifloride? Thing that when burned emits hydrochloric acid and hydrofluoric acid. Aka thing that burns ashes. Again. I assume making those machines is pretty crazy as well.

For anyone interested in how terrible Chlorine trifluoride is, it's on perpetual HN favorite Derek Lowe's list of "Things I won't work with" https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/sand-won-t-save-yo...

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#87

Post by Spooky23 »

Ygg2 wrote: post #56
Spooky23 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked at a facility with experimental lithography machines. One of the nasties looked like water, but would pass through your skin and melt your bones. Fun.

That's wild. Something right out of the zone. Any idea what is it?

HF was one of the nastier ones, but the one I’m thinking of sounded nastier. I’ll look for it in old training materials in the AM.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#88

Post by kurthr »

xadhominemx wrote: post #70
rjzzleep wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been pouring high order of millions into domestic lithography. Eventually the market will shift. We're still a bit far away. Edit: funny that people here think that this is statement is somehow something that could be considered a contentious topic. semiengineering has a startup section with investments for people that are more interested in facts than emotions: https://semiengineering.com/startup-corner/

China will not have a domestically sourced EUV scanner with commercially viable throughput within 20 years, if not longer. They are lacking precursor technologies to the precursor technologies, supply chains, talent, etc for both light source and optics, and unlike the rear of the semiconductor industry, those ecosystems are today found within the US and Europe, not Asia.

Yeah, I mostly agree, but do you consider Taiwan part of China? They do.

Japan and Korea also have pretty big talent in related areas. I believe that Intellectual Property often wears shoes, but a lot of SW, methods, specs, etc can be appropriated more quickly.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#89

Post by dragonwriter »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #83
kragen wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This smear could not be further from the truth. China has singlehandedly (to the extent that a billion people can be considered a "single hand") dropped the cost of solar energy from five times as expensive as fossil fuels to half as expensive as fossil fuels in only ten years, an innovation that will probably stop global warming and usher in an unprecedented age of energy abundance starting about eight years from no…

Sorry to see you downvoted, it is extremely irksome to me that China is so often characterized as "copying others homework" -- if we could do what China does, why do we go to China every time we need something done? It is not westerners exploiting cheap labor, tho it may have started that way. It is really the scale of their talent pool, the number of engineers that graduate every year is nearly 10x what the US gets…

> if we could do what China does, why do we go to China every time we need something done?

Ricardian comparative advantage, which doesn't require the party you go to to be better at the thing you are going to them to do than you are, only that you are enough better at something else that doing the thing you are outsourcing would require giving up more of the other thing.

It's about opportunity cost, not absolute proficiency.

Re: ASML reports fire at its Berlin factory

#90

Post by wombatpm »

olliej wrote: post #63
Spooky23 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked at a facility with experimental lithography machines. One of the nasties looked like water, but would pass through your skin and melt your bones. Fun.

probably hydrofluoric acid? I worked at IGNS in NZ and they used it for dissolving rocks. Many warning signs. [edit: to clarify I mean safety warning signs, not warning signs of being in contact with it. My assumption is excruciating agony which would be a good indicator :D]

HF keeps regenerating itself until it hits bone and forms calcium floride. Get exposed to enough of it and it will pull the calcium out of your cells, stopping muscles, heart beats, and neuron firing.
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